The Bank Indonesia survey is usually a good indicator for full-month inflation as normally few things change in the last week. However, in March 2017 there was a sudden drop of several commodity prices - particularly rice, chilli and eggs - in the last week of the month. Also tariffs for mobile phone voice messages as well as transportation fares reportedly fell causing deflation in the full-month.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's core inflation, which excludes administered and volatile food prices, decelerated to 3.30 percent (y/y) in March 2017. Calendar year inflation (January-March 2017) in Indonesia now stands at 1.19 percent, while annual inflation (April 2016-March 2017) cooled to 3.61 percent. This is still well within Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) in 2017. However, ongoing electricity price subsidy adjustments are expected to cause some additional inflationary pressures in the coming months.

In the January-February 2017 period electricity prices for 900-VA households in Indonesia rose 31 percent. In the second phase of the program, in March 2017, prices were raised by 32.7 percent. Lastly, in the May-June 2017 period electricity prices will increase by 42.9 percent. Afterwards, starting from 1 July 2017, these 900-VA subscribers group will be subject to an auto-adjusted electricity tariff scheme just like the other 12 non-subsidized customer groups.

If we take a look at the table below it is visible that Indonesia usually experiences deflation in April. This is caused by the start of the big harvest season. With a major boost on the supply-side, Indonesia's food prices tends to fall. However, given the administered price adjustments (electricity tariffs) there are chances of modest inflation this April.

Inflation in Indonesia:

Month M/M Growth
      2013
M/M Growth
      2014
M/M Growth
      2015
M/M Growth
      2016
M/M Growth
      2017
January      1.03%      1.07%     -0.24%      0.51%      0.97%
February      0.75%      0.26%     -0.36%     -0.09%      0.23%
March      0.63%      0.08%      0.17%      0.19%     -0.02%
April     -0.10%     -0.02%      0.36%     -0.45%
May     -0.03%      0.16%      0.50%      0.24%
June      1.03%      0.43%      0.54%      0.66%
July      3.29%      0.93%      0.93%      0.69%
August      1.12%      0.47%      0.39%     -0.02%
September     -0.35%      0.27%     -0.05%      0.22%
October      0.09%      0.47%     -0.08%      0.14%
November      0.12%      1.50%      0.21%      0.47%
December      0.55%      2.46%      0.96%      0.42%
Total      8.38%      8.36%      3.35%      3.02%

Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)

Inflation in Indonesia and Central Bank (BI) Target 2008-2016:

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inflation
(annual % change)
 9.8  4.8  5.1  5.4  4.3  8.4  8.4  3.4  3.0
BI Target
(annual % change)
 5.0  4.5  5.0  5.0  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.0  4.0

Source: Bank Indonesia

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