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Today's Headlines RAPBN 2014

Weak Rupiah and Global Economy Enlarge Indonesia's Budget Deficit

The outcome of Indonesia's 2014 budget deficit is expected to be higher than initially planned in the 2014 State Budget Draft (RAPBN 2014). In the 2014 draft, the deficit is proposed to amount to IDR 154.2 trillion (USD $13.6 billion), or 1.49 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). However, the government's latest estimate indicates a widening of the deficit to IDR 209.5 trillion (USD $18.5 billion), equivalent to 2.02 percent of GDP. The wider deficit is mainly caused by Indonesia's depreciating rupiah as well as the weak global economy.

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Weak Rupiah and Global Economy Enlarge Indonesia's Budget Deficit

Chatib Basri: GDP Growth Indonesia in 2014 Should Be Revised Down to 6%

Finance minister Chatib Basri said that the Indonesian government should revise its outlook for GDP growth in 2014 from 6.4% (mentioned in the 2014 State Budget) to about 6.0%. A more realistic outlook, which is in line with the current global and domestic financial context, is needed. Global uncertainty due to the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program has resulted in capital outflows from emerging markets, including Indonesia. Various countries, developed and emerging ones, have lowered outlooks for 2014 GDP growth.

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Chatib Basri: GDP Growth Indonesia in 2014 Should Be Revised Down to 6%

Government's 2014 Macroeconomic Assumptions Ambitious but Unrealistic

The macroeconomic assumptions that have been formulated in the 2014 State Budget Draft by the government of Indonesia are not considered too realistic by several analysts. Although it is understood that one should set a high standard in order to maximize efforts, analysts feel that - given the current problematic economic context in Asian emerging economies as well as global economic turmoil - the government is far too optimistic, particularly because the government will have to devote part of its attention to the elections in mid-2014.

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Indonesian Government's 2014 Macroeconomic Assumptions Ambitious yet Unrealistic

Indonesia's Per Capita GDP Expected to Rise to USD $5,000 by 2014

President of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, mentioned in his speech ahead of the Independence Day that Indonesia's per capita GDP is expected to rise to USD $5,000 by 2014. An increasing per capita GDP triggers domestic consumption among Indonesia's rapidly expanding middle class segment and thus forms a catalyst for economic activity in the country. As can be seen in the table below, Indonesia's per capita GDP grew steadily between 2006 and 2012. In 2010, it hit the important level of USD $3,000.

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Indonesia's Per Capita GDP May Rise to USD $5,000 by 2014

Indonesian Government Projects 6.4% to 6.9% Economic Growth in 2014

In the draft for the State Budget of 2014 (RAPBN 2014), the government of Indonesia projects economic growth of between 6.4 and 6.9 percent. Continued global recovery is expected to result in higher GDP growth compared to 2012 (6.23 percent) as it will result in better demand for Indonesian products, such as commodities. The main pillar of Indonesia's GDP growth - domestic consumption - is expected to grow due to the population's higher purchasing power and the upcoming legislative and presidential elections.

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Indonesian Government Assumption State Budget 2014 - Indonesia Investments

Latest Columns RAPBN 2014

Government and Parliament Agree on Indonesian Revised 2014 State Budget

In a plenary session of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) on Wednesday evening (18/06), the parliament approved the government’s proposed revised state budget of 2014 (RAPBN-P 2014). Prior to this approval, the revision had already been discussed for a month between the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) and the government. Almost all components of the 2014 State Budget have been revised from the government’s earlier assumptions.

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Government and Parliament Agree on Indonesian Revised 2014 State Budget

Indonesian Government Proposes $32.6 Billion of Subsidy Spending in 2014

The government of Indonesia proposes to allocate IDR 336.24 trillion (USD $32.6 billion) for subsidy spending in the 2014 state budget draft: IDR 284.7 trillion (USD $27.6 billion) for energy subsidies and IDR 51.6 trillion (USD $5.0 billion) for non-energy subsidies. The proposed amount implies a 3.41 percent fall in total subsidy allocation compared to Indonesia's state budget in 2013. However, despite a reduction, subsidy expenditure is still large at 18.5 percent of total government spending (IDR 1,816.7 trillion).

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Indonesian Government Proposes Subsidy Spending of US $32.6 Billion in 2014

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