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Indonesia ended 2022 with a modest increase in inflationary pressures. Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (or BPS) announced that December 2022 inflation reached 0.66 percent month-on-month (m/m), higher than our forecast of around 0.50 percent.
In line with our expectations, Indonesia’s headline inflation rate approached the 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) mark in July 2022 as Indonesia’s Statistical Office (BPS) determined inflation at 0.64 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2022.
Indonesia is set to become the world's biggest wheat importer in the 2017-2018 season. Based on an estimation of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Indonesia will import 12.5 million tons of wheat, hence replacing Egypt (traditionally the world's leading wheat importer). Based on data from the World Bank, Indonesia imported 10.2 million tons of wheat in the 2016-2017 season, ranking behind Egypt that imported 11.2 million tons.
Indonesian food and drinks manufacturer Mayora Indah said its processed foods business line is more lucrative than its processed and instant coffee products. However, considering rising coffee consumption in Indonesia and abroad, the lucrative perspectives of the coffee business line should not be underestimated.
Several players in Indonesia's food and beverage industry are optimistic that their business will do better in 2017 compared to the preceding year. Meanwhile, while the Industry Ministry of Indonesia set its target for growth of the national food and beverage industry in 2017 at the range of 7.5 - 7.8 percent year-on-year (y/y), an industry group is confident that the industry will expand up to 8.5 percent (y/y) this year, similar to last year's performance. Why should Indonesia's food and beverage industry expand stronger than the government's target in 2017?
Players in Indonesia's food and beverage industry request the government to revise Law No. 33/2014 on the Halal Product Guarantee because this law is highly difficult to be implemented and makes the nation's business environment less attractive. The law, drafted in 2014, requires all food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic products that are consumed in Indonesia to have halal certification (which indicates the product was prepared according to Islamic law) by October 2019.
Both Indonesia's processed food and beverage industry and modern retail sectors are considered to have great potential for the next three years due to Indonesia's huge domestic market, expanding middle class as well as sharply rising Internet and smartphone penetration (giving rise to a rapidly developing e-commerce industry). Meanwhile, accelerated economic growth and low inflation are the right recipe to boost people's purchasing power, hence boosting sales.
Indonesia's exports of processed food and beverage products may surpass the level of USD $8 billion this year, up around 33 percent (y/y) from the realization of USD $6 billion in 2015. Rising food and beverage exports are the result of an improving global economic environment. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (Gapmmi), informed that Indonesia's rapidly rising processed food and beverage exports are particularly supported by growing demand from other ASEAN countries.
Turnover in one of the most lucrative industries within the Indonesian economy - the processed food and beverage industry - is expected to reach IDR 540 trillion (approx. USD $40.9 billion) in the second half of 2016, up roughly 8 percent from realization in the same period one year earlier. This solid growth is supported by Indonesia's improving purchasing power amid the accelerating economy and higher commodity prices, and growing output of the nation's processed food and beverage industry.
Investment in Indonesia's processed food and beverage industry is expected to surpass the IDR 50 trillion level (approx. USD $3.9 billion) again in 2016, up 16 percent (y/y) from IDR 43 trillion in 2015. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), said investment in this industry has been recovering in 2016 after a weakish 2015 when foreign direct investment into Indonesia's processed food and beverage industry fell 50 percent to USD $1.5 billion.
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Pamerindo Indonesia, the leading trade fair organizer in Indonesia, introduces the launch of its most-anticipated Food and Hospitality Series show, Hotelexpo Indonesia and Specialty Food Indonesia (previously named Hotelex Indonesia and Finefood Indonesia). Covering the latest trends and innovation in the hospitality and specialty food sector, the expo will be held on July 22-24, 2020 at JIEXPO in Kemayoran, Jakarta.
Indonesia, with a population of approximately 267 million, is the largest market for the Food Service Industry in the ASEAN region. With rising incomes amongst the growing middle class and changes in lifestyles, the Food Service Industry in Indonesia is expected to show a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2018 and 2023 of 7.06 percent.
Adhi Lukman, Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (Gapmmi), says he is optimistic that the investment targets that are set by Indonesia's Industry Ministry will be met this year. The Industry Ministry targets to see a total of IDR 63.25 trillion (approx. USD $4.6 billion) worth of private sector investment in the food and beverage industry of Indonesia, up 6.7 percent compared to investment realization in this industry one year earlier.
Hero Supermarket, a listed company on the Indonesia Stock Exchange that is primarily known for the operation of supermarkets and hypermarkets, is in need of overthinking its business model after recording a net loss of IDR 191.4 billion (approx. USD $14.0 million) in full-year 2017 (from a net profit of IDR 120.6 billion in the preceding year).
Turnover in Indonesia's processed food and beverage industry is expected to rise 10 percent (m/m) to IDR 440 trillion (approx. USD $32.4 billion) in the second quarter of 2016 from IDR 400 trillion in the preceding quarter. This growth is expected to come on the back of Islamic celebrations (Ramadan and Idul Fitri) that always trigger rising consumption. Although the Ramadan is the holy fasting month for Muslims - implying a focus on self-control - dinner and early breakfast 'parties' boost turnover in the nation's food and beverage industry.
When on 11 March 2016 an Indonesian man died while participating in a chicken eating contest organized by O2 Accion in outlets of fast-food company Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Indonesia, shares of Fast Food Indonesia came under pressure. Fast Food Indonesia, the franchise holder of the KFC brand in Indonesia, is one of the nation's leading fast food companies and operates the popular KFC chain in Southeast Asia's largest economy. However, in the first week of April shares of Fast Food Indonesia soared significantly on the back of better-than-expected revenue.
Although most Indonesians still prefer to eat rice and noodles as part of their daily diet, an increasing number of Indonesians (particularly those who live in the urban environments and have adjusted to an ‘urban lifestyle’) have started to consume cereals and bread. In fact, Indonesia has become the world’s second-largest wheat importer and ranks among East Asia’s largest cereal importers. The country is dependent on these imports as domestic production of grains is close to zero (the climate doesn’t suit cultivation).
Food product exports from Indonesia to the Netherlands have increased according to Wim Jansen, Commercial Manager at NIVO Import & Export BV, Netherlands-based importer and exporter of Asian food products. About 45 percent of the company’s imports constitute food products from Indonesia, reaching a value of 3.5 million euro per year. Some popular Indonesian food products that are imported into the Netherlands are chili sauce, soy sauce, crackers (krupuk), various spices and noodles.
Investment in Indonesia’s processed food and beverage industry is expected to grow at least ten percent to IDR 55 trillion (USD $4.6 billion) in 2015 from an estimated investment realization of IDR 50 trillion in 2014. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), said that investments in this sector have been solid due to rising consumption of food and beverages in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Particularly foreign investments have been strong in 2014 and are expected to continue next year.
The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that 25 miners holding a Mining Business License (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, or IUP) have finished construction of their smelters in the first half of 2014 in line with Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (also known as the 2009 New Mining Law), which foresees a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals. General Director at the ministry, R. Sukhyar, said that some of these 25 smelters are still in the commissioning stage, while others are already in the production stage.
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