Semen Indonesia, the country's largest cement manufacturer, announced that it has signed a conditional sales & purchase agreement with LafargeHolcim Ltd to acquire a 80.6 percent stake in Holcim Indonesia, the third-biggest cement manufacturer in Indonesia. This USD $917 million deal not only rocks Indonesia's cement industry, but also makes Semen Indonesia's role in the domestic cement industry even more dominant, while also turning the company into one of the world's largest cement manufacturers.

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Indonesia's largest cement producer Semen Indonesia sold 28.96 million tons of cement in full-year 2017, up 10.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) from sales in the preceding year. Domestic cement sales of Semen Indonesia reached 27.09 million tons in 2017, up 5.5 percent (y/y). This is slightly below the nation's average: in full-year 2017 total cement sales in Indonesia rose 7.6 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons.

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Indonesia's state-controlled cement manufacturer Semen Indonesia experienced a 8.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase in domestic cement sales to 2.77 million tons in October 2017. Meanwhile, the company's cement exports jumped a whopping 131.2 percent (y/y) in the same month. However, these exports (145,271 tons of cement in October 2017) come from a low base.

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Indonesia's largest cement producer Semen Indonesia, which controls about 41 percent of the domestic cement market, targets to have raised its annual installed cement production capacity to 37 million tons by September 2017. Johan Samudra, Director of Production and Business Strategy at Semen Indonesia, said the company's production capacity currently stands at 32-33 million tons.

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Indonesia's leading cement manufacturer Semen Indonesia created a joint venture (JV) together with its subsidiary Semen Indonesia Beton. This JV - named Semen Indonesia Industri Building - is active in the building materials sector. Semen Indonesia controls 99 percent of the shares in this new entity, while Semen Indonesia Beton owns the remaining 1 percent.

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Bonds of Indonesian cement manufacturer Semen Indonesia are subscribed 1.3 times. Semen Indonesia Finance Director Darmawan Junaidi said the company planned to sell IDR 3 trillion worth of five-year bonds (8.6 percent coupon), but demand reached IDR 4 trillion. Most demand originated from domestic financial institutions such as banks, insurance and pension funds.

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Indonesia's largest cement manufacturer, Semen Indonesia, plans to establish two new cement factories - one in Aceh (Sumatra) and one in Kupang (East Nusa Tenggara) - in order to strengthen the company's portfolio and distribution network. Semen Indonesia is currently conducting further studies to determine strategies to realize its plans.

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Cement sales in Indonesia in the first four months of 2016 reached 19.3 million tons, up 4.2 percent (y/y) from the January-April period one year earlier, supported by additional cement supplies by three newcomers in Indonesia's cement industry and higher cement demand. The three newcomers supplied 600,000 tons of cement in the first four months. Trimegah Securities noted that without these additional supplies, Indonesia's cement sales in January-April 2016 would only have increased 0.7 percent (y/y).

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The cement manufacturers in Indonesia are in need of participating in a cement price war in order to gain market share in Southeast Asia's largest economy. According to analysts a price war cannot be avoided due to the influx of new players in Indonesia's cement industry. This influx causes rising cement production capacity in Indonesia, while domestic cement demand remains sluggish. The new and smaller cement players offer low prices to gain market share. The bigger and long-term established cement companies may need to join in this price war in order to defend their market share.

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The push for government-led infrastructure development across Indonesia, which started from mid-2015, is expected to cause rising cement sales in Indonesia in 2016. The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) expects to see a 5 percentage point growth in Indonesian cement sales to 64.5 million tons this year (from an estimated 61.5 million tons in 2015). However, ASI Chairman Widodo Santoso emphasized that a delay in government spending could jeopardize achieving the sales projection.

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Semen Indonesia, the largest cement producer in Indonesia, announced in November 2018 that it has signed a conditional sales & purchase agreement with LafargeHolcim Ltd to acquire an 80.6 percent stake in Holcim Indonesia, the third-biggest cement producer in Indonesia.

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Over the past five years Indonesia's annual cement production capacity surged to above 100 million tons, while domestic cement consumption has difficulty to reach beyond 65 million tons (and Indonesia exports relatively few cement). The subsequent oversupply condition puts significant pressure on cement prices. So, what are the strategies of Indonesian cement producers in 2018?

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Although the Indonesian government has been eager to improve the nation's investment climate in a bid to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and thus boost economic growth of Indonesia, it is widely known that conditions in Indonesia's investment climate remain somewhat troublesome, reflected by the nation's mediocre ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index 2017. Here it ranks 91 out of 190 countries across the globe.

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Cement sales in Indonesia - a key indicator to measure the state of infrastructure and property development - declined 3.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.64 million tons in September 2016. This decline was attributed to fewer cement demand from the property sector (housing and apartments). Meanwhile, shares of state-controlled cement maker Semen Indonesia fell 2.91 percent on Tuesday (11/10) after Jakarta's Supreme Court revoked the environmental permit for the company's USD $320 million cement plant in Rembang (Central Java).

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The year 2015 was a sluggish year for Indonesia's cement industry amid the country's slowing economic growth. Total cement sales only rose 1.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 61 million tons, the slowest growth pace since 2009. In the first month of 2016, however, a positive sign was detected. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesian cement sales rose 4.4 percent (y/y) to 5.14 million tons in January 2016 (from the same month one year earlier) on the back of government-led infrastructure development.

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As cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise nearly 10 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in 2016 on the back of government-led infrastructure development, investment growth and accelerating GDP growth, three cement producers are set to benefit. The three market leaders in Indonesia's cement industry that should see higher sales are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia.

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The latest data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) show that cement consumption in Indonesia declined 3.8 percent (year-on-year) to 22.9 million tons in the first five months of 2015 (from 23.8 million tons of cement in the same period last year). This fall is the steepest decline in Indonesian cement consumption since 2009 when demand plunged nearly seven percent (y/y) amid the impact of the global financial crisis. The current decline is caused by the country’s economic slowdown and falling commodity prices outside Java.

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The year 2015 may be a good one for Indonesian cement makers. The Indonesian government under the leadership of Joko Widodo is eager to invest heavily in the country’s infrastructure as this is one of the main bottlenecks that blocks higher economic growth. In the Revised 2015 State Budget the central government set aside IDR 290.3 trillion (USD $22.3 billion) for infrastructure development. Surely, the country's large cement producers - Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Holcim Indonesia and Semen Baturaja - will benefit from this.

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Indonesian cement sales jumped 37.4 percent (year-on-year) to 4.7 million tons in August 2014 due to higher cement demand from Indonesian property and infrastructure developers. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the development of smelters, power plants, apartments, hotels, and social housing has been key to improved cement sales last month. However, the 37.4 percentage point growth was also caused by fewer working days in August 2013 as the Lebaran holiday fell in that month.

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According to the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), cement sales in Indonesia reached 41.6 million tons in the first three quarters of 2013, a 5.3 percent increase compared to domestic cement sales in the same period in 2012 (39.5 million tons), while Indonesia's cement exports jumped by 187 percent to 503 thousand tons. As such, total cement sales from January to September 2013 grew 6.2 percent to 42 million tons. Meanwhile, Semen Indonesia, Indonesia's largest cement producer, managed to expand its market share.

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