The economy of Indonesia, which has been slowing since 2011, will have difficulty to rebound in 2015 as the central bank’s key interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be raised again to avert capital outflows brought on by higher interest rates in the US and to combat accelerated inflation after domestic subsidized fuel prices have been raised by the new government led by president-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi). After a GDP growth pace of 6.5 percent (y/y) in 2011, economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy fell to 5.8 percent (y/y) in 2013.

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On 28 September 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such Indonesia’s fuel subsidies, US interest rates, poverty, inequality, GDP growth, palm oil, rice, the Anas Urbaningrum graft case, as well as the passing of a new bill that ends direct voting in the regions, and more.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri stated that the Indonesian government plans to set aside a total of IDR 10 trillion (USD $837 million) in the state budgets of 2014 as well as 2015 to support the poor people of Indonesia through social safety programs. This is yet another indication that prices of subsidized fuels will be raised before the end of the year. Recently, it has been increasingly speculated that Indonesian president-elect Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”) will raise these prices by IDR 3,000 (USD $0.25) per liter.

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The Budgetary Committee of Indonesia’s parliament announced on Monday (22/09) that it proposes the government to spend 1.6 percent less on energy subsidies in 2015. Originally the government allocated IDR 363.5 trillion (USD $30.4 billion) for energy subsidies (which involves fuel and electricity subsidies) in 2015, up from IDR 350.3 trillion (USD $29.3 billion) in 2014. This would be good news for president-elect Joko "Jokowi" Widodo as he would imply have more fiscal room for his reform programs.

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On 21 September 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such Indonesia’s fuel subsidies, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, the IPO of Blue Bird, August car sales, foreign investments in the insurance sector, a palm oil update, the current account deficit, and more.

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Indonesian car sales, an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and domestic consumption, surged 24.1 percent (year-on-year) to 96,728 vehicles in August 2014. However, this growth pace is heavily influenced by public holidays and thus does not signal a marked improvement in Indonesian consumer confidence. In August last year, Indonesian car sales fell because of the limited amount of working days amid the Lebaran holiday (Idul Fitri), causing reduced production and distribution of cars and motorcycles.

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On 14 September 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such Indonesia’s fuel subsidies, economic growth in 2015, monetary policy of Bank Indonesia, the Anas Urbaningrum corruption case, emerging Indonesian companies on a global scale, and more.

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Indonesian newspaper Investor Daily reported in today’s edition (11/09) that Joko Widodo (who will become Indonesia’s 7th president on 20 October 2014) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuel in November or December 2014. Reportedly, the price of gasoline (premium) will be raised by IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) to IDR 7,500 (USD $0.64) per liter and the price of diesel (solar) by IDR 1,000 as well to become IDR 6,500 (USD $0.55) per liter. Meanwhile Widodo will enhance the social safety net to protect the poor.

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There are mixed opinions about the interest rate policy of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia). Tomorrow (11/09), at the Board of Governor’s Meeting, the central bank will decide whether or not to change the country’s interest rates. Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) has been held at 7.50 percent for ten consecutive months. This relatively high figure managed to ease high inflation (which emerged after prices of subsidized fuel prices were raised in June 2013). However, it also further slowed economic growth.

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On 7 September 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such Indonesia’s fuel subsidies, August inflation, July trade balance, the conflict between the government and Nusa Tenggara Newmont, Jero Wacik’s possible involvement in a corruption case, and more.

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Despite weakening stock indices in the United States on Friday (14/06), most Asian indices were up on Monday (17/06) and impacted positively on the main index of Indonesia (IHSG). On the other hand, market participants are still waiting for the outcome of the plenary session of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) regarding the approval of the increase in the price of subsidized fuel. The market is speculating that the price increase will be approved even though a number of political parties oppose the plan.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) moved wildly last week. During the first two days of the week, the index fell to 4,609.95 points, which is considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. However, on the last trading day of the week (14/06), a 3.32 percent recovery occurred. Generally, it were domestic market participants that supported the IHSG. Foreign market participants continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios. Total foreign selling totaled IDR 9 trillion (USD $910.4 million) last week.

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On Friday (14/06), the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) jumped 3.32 percent to 4,760.74 points as financial market participants were optimistic about the effects of the higher central bank interest rate that was announced the day before. Moreover, Indonesia's IHSG was supported by a green wave across Asian stock markets, which was partly due to a strong rebound in markets in the United States on Thursday (13/06). Stocks in Indonesia's banking and property sectors were the top-gainers on Friday's trading day.

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On Thursday (13/06), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) could not continue the recovery it had shown on the previous day. The index fell 1.92% to 4,607.66 points amid international and domestic concerns. Investors are worried about central banks' policies and the World Bank's downgrade of global economic growth in 2013. On the domestic side, negative sentiments were brought on by the fuel subsidy issue (and its inflationary impact), the weakening rupiah, the BI rate hike, falling foreign exchange reserves, and the trade deficit.

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Less than 24 hours after having raised the overnight deposit facility rate (known as Fasbi) by 25 bps to 4.25 percent, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) also raised its benchmark interest rate (known as the BI rate) by 25 bps to 6.0 percent. Both these policy responses were conducted in order to support the IDR rupiah, which is one of the worst performing Asian currencies against the US dollar in 2013. Indonesia's central bank expects growing inflationary pressures as the Indonesian government intends to cut fuel subsidies this June.

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Despite continued foreign selling of Indonesian stocks on today's trading day (12/06), we see that there is an end in sight to the sell of. During the last three days, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) had fallen considerably. The fall was led by the big cap companies that generally are target of most foreign investment. As stock prices of these companies had experienced a free fall in previous days, it made them attractive for limited buying. However, negative sentiments that have coloured the stock market recently, have not waned yet.

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For three consecutive days, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) had to cope with significant losses. On Tuesday (11/06), the index fell 3.50 percent to 4,609.95 points, considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 3.98 trillion (USD $406.1 million) as domestic conditions in Indonesia are unstable. Moreover, investors are concerned about governments (USA and Japan) that want to slow down their stimulus programs as various economic data are showing positive outcomes.

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Data released by a department of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's budget deficit amounted to IDR 25.9 trillion (USD $2.64 billion) on 31 May 2013. This figure is equivalent to 16.9 percent of the target that is set in the 2013 State Budget (IDR 153.3 trillion). The IDR 25.9 trillion deficit translates to 0.27 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). The maximum amount of deficit - as stipulated by the State Budget Law of 2013 - that is allowed to be maintained is equivalent to 1.65 percent of GDP.

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Negative market sentiments, especially originating from within Indonesia, made investors shy away from Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) on Monday (10/06). Similar to last Friday, when the index fell 2.70 percent, foreign investors continued to sell large proportions of their Indonesian stock portfolios. The index lost 1.81 percent today as investors are concerned about the current state of Indonesia's economy. Other major indices of Asia were mixed but with a strengthening tendency, despite weak data from China.

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Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.

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