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Berita Hari Ini Rupiah
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati does not expect to see a change in Indonesia's current account deficit in the third quarter of 2018 as government efforts to curtail the deficit have only been started in September, while the July and August trade balances showed significant deficits.
Those who invest in Indonesian assets (or actually in any assets across the globe) will need to carefully monitor two matters this week. First, the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting (scheduled for 25-26 September 2018) that will most likely result in another interest rate hike. And secondly, the latest developments in USA-China (trade) relations.
On Friday 07 September 2018 Indonesia Investments released the August 2018 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of August 2018 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.
Concerns about emerging market contagion is pushing emerging market stocks, currencies, and bonds in deep red territory on Wednesday (05/09). Indonesia leads the decline with its benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunging slightly over 3 percent in the first one-and-half hours of trading, while the rupiah is sliding toward the IDR 15,000 per US dollar level (its weakest position since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late-1990s).
All eyes remain on the Indonesian rupiah today (04/09). Yesterday, the Indonesian currency depreciated 0.71 percent to IDR 14,815 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), and considering external pressures remain high the rupiah is expected to continue its decline in the foreseeable future. Authorities' efforts are able to smoothen the rupiah's weakening trend, hence avoiding sudden big slumps that could trigger panic. But to reverse the current trend of the rupiah, there are no short-term solutions.
The Indonesian rupiah rate depreciated beyond the IDR 14,700 per US dollar level on Friday (31/08). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the rupiah had weakened 0.20 percent to IDR 14,710 per US dollar by 11:00 am local Jakarta time. Indonesia's currency is now gradually approaching a two-decade low. The weakening rupiah also caused the country's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index to fall 1.19 percent on Friday's first trading session.
The Indonesian rupiah is under pressure again on Thursday (23/08) in line with the overall trend of emerging market currencies. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 14,630 per US dollar by 11:00 am local Jakarta time on Thursday.
Most stocks in the Southeast Asian region were in green territory on Monday (20/08). So was Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index. The index rose a whopping 1.87 percent to close at 5,892.19 points at the first trading day of the new week, pairing some of the losses it has suffered in recent weeks.
The central bank of Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50 percent at the August 2018 policy meeting. The decision was in line with our expectations as heavy pressures have been affecting the rupiah after the collapse of the Turkish lira.
Indonesian assets are under pressure on Monday (13/08). By 16:00 pm local Jakarta time, the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.90 percent to IDR 14,608 per US dollar, while the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had plunged 3.55 percent. Although all emerging markets in Asia are under pressure on Monday, Indonesia is seemingly the most fragile one.
Artikel Terbaru Rupiah
Sejalan dengan indeks lain di Asia, saham Indonesia naik pada hari Selasa (26/05). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,62% menjadi 5.320,90 poin. Sentimen-sentimen positif tidak berasal dari Amerika Serikat (AS) karena pasar saham AS ditutup kemarin karena hari libur namun terutama berasal dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) yang badan perencanaan perekonomiannya mengumumkan akan mengimplementasikan sejumlah kebijakan baru dalam usaha mendongkrak perekonomian yang lambat. Kendati begitu, rupiah melemah 0,25% menjadi Rp 13.220 per dollar AS berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index.
Although most emerging market stocks fell, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah showed a solid performance on Thursday (21/05). The rupiah appreciated 0.40 percent to IDR 13,122 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.39 percent to 5,313.21 points. Most emerging stocks fell due to weak data from China (despite a series of stimulus). However, Indonesian stocks were supported by news about its credit rating and dividend announcements.
Para investor jelas sedang menunggu hasil-hasil dari Pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia yang diadakan pada hari ini (19/05). Dalam pertemuan kebijakan ini, bank sentral Indonesia akan memutuskan pendekatan moneternya. Bagi banyak pelaku pasar, merupakan hal yang penting dan krusial untuk mempelajari apakah Bank Indonesia akan menyesuaikan kebijakan suku bunganya dalam rangka mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia (yang telah mencapai kecepatan terlambat dalam lima tahun terakhir di kuartal 1 tahun 2015).
Selama setahun terakhir, rupiah telah menguat terhadap berbagai jenis mata uang asing. Namun penguatan ini tidak berlaku terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Pada periode waktu yang sama, rupiah menguat terhadap mata uang asing lainnya dan sebaliknya rupiah melemah terhadap dollar AS. Untuk banyak investor yang berfokus pada pasar mata uang, mungkin tampaknya seakan dua mata uang ini hanya sedikit berhubungan. Namun, kalau kita melihat trend yang berkembang selama setahun terakhir, menjadi jelas bahwa keadaannya tidak seperti itu.
Menjelang penerbitan angka pertumbuhan resmi proyek domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia di kuartal 1 (dijadwalkan untuk diterbitkan di minggu pertama), saham-saham Indonesia dan rupiah melemah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) akibat lemahnya sentimen pasar yang telah membebani pasar selama seminggu terakhir. Terlebih lagi, pendapatan perusahaan blue chip di kuartal 1 yang dilaporkan lebih rendah dari dugaan membuat para pelaku pasar kuatir bahwa perlambatan perekonomian telah berlanjut di kuartal 1 tahun 2015.
After Indonesia’s political year of 2014 ended, financial institutions expect to experience better times in 2015. Last year, economic growth of Indonesia slowed to a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) due to weak exports, the high domestic interest rate environment, and political uncertainties caused by Indonesia’s legislative and presidential elections. This year, however, economic growth is expected to accelerate - albeit slightly - implying stronger purchasing power. One of the businesses that will profit is mutual fund management.
On March 31, 2015, Bank Indonesia issued regulation number 17/3/PBI/2015 concerning Mandatory Use of Rupiah in the Territory of Indonesia (BI Regulation). In the much discussed Law number 7 of 2011 concerning Currency the mandatory use of rupiah in Indonesia was already regulated, however could be exempted in case the contract parties had agreed in writing to the terms of payment in a currency other than rupiah. Under the new BI regulation the terms on the use of foreign currencies are further restricted. In this column we discuss the most important changes based on the BI Regulation.
Over the past week, the Indonesian rupiah continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,850 per US dollar on Friday (17/04). Only a month ago, investors and policymakers were alarmed when the rupiah touched IDR 13,245 per US dollar, a 17-year low. This column discusses the factors that caused the strengthening of the rupiah in recent weeks. However, amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA, this development should be short-term only.
Kalau kita melihat aktivitas pasar rupiah, sangat jelas bahwa beberapa trend telah mulai terjadi. Terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), rupiah menunjukkan pelemahan selama ini. Banyak investor mulai melihat bahwa pelemahan rupiah sudah overdone dan kita mulai melihat para analis yang menyuarakan bahwa rupiah akan menguat dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. Namun ada juga argumen melawan prospek ini dan penting bagi siapa pun yang berinvestasi di aset-aset Indonesia untuk memahami beberapa faktor ini, untuk bisa mengambil posisi yang tepat.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that, besides global volatility caused by uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, the rupiah has been - and remains - under pressure due to Indonesia’s increasing private sector debt and the wide current account deficit. Moreover, as subsidiaries of multinational companies in Indonesia tend to send back dividends to the foreign parent companies in the second quarter (implying rising US dollar demand), the rupiah is plagued by additional pressures up to June.
