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Berita Hari Ini Rupiah
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the nation's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD $124.9 billion at the end of April 2018, down from USD $126.0 billion one month earlier. This decline is in line with expectations as the central bank had already confirmed it is intervening in the market to defend the Indonesian rupiah amid broad-based US dollar strength.
Indonesian stocks, the rupiah and bonds are all under heavy pressure on Tuesday (08/05). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2.12 percent to 5,760.35 points in the first trading session of the day. This performance is in stark contrast to most Asian stocks that are trading in green territory today. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah has slipped above the IDR 14,000 per US dollar level. Lets take a look why.
Indonesia again led losses among Asian stock markets on Friday (04/05). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.13 percent to close at 5,792.35 points, its lowest position since August 2017. Most stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were in the red zone today as investors lack risk appetite ahead of the release of US payrolls data (due later today). Analysts expect to see a strong figure. Meanwhile, US unemployment is also expected to have eased slightly.
In line with expectations the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 1.50 - 1.75 percent at the two-day May policy meeting (1-2 May 2018). The US central bank also said it expects the recent rise in inflation (approaching the Fed's target) to be sustained, thus markets are increasingly expecting an interest rate hike at the next policy meeting (scheduled for 12-13 June).
Indonesia Investments expects to see Bank Indonesia raising its benchmark interest rate at least once in 2018 in order to relieve pressures on the Indonesian rupiah. Rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve will implement four interest rate hikes in 2018, while the 10-year US treasury yield passed beyond the 3 percent line, have resulted in major pressures on emerging market assets, including Indonesia's rupiah and stocks.
Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index continued to be plagued by a sell-off on Thursday (26/04) after already having fallen 2.40 percent on the preceding trading day. Today the benchmark index of Indonesia plunged another 2.81 percent to 5,909.20 points amid climbing US treasury yields (passing beyond the psychological boundary of three percent).
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah remained under heavy pressure on Wednesday (25/04) after the benchmark ten-year US bond yields passed beyond the 3 percent level (for the first time since early 2014), thus lifting the US dollar and causing capital outflows from emerging markets. While most Asian stocks are trading in red territory today, Indonesian stocks are the most badly affected. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index tumbled 2.40 percent to 6,079.85 points.
The Indonesian rupiah is approaching the IDR 14,000 per US dollar level, the currency's weakest position since mid-December 2015. On Monday (23/04) the rupiah depreciated 0.59 percent to IDR 13,975 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Considering the fundamentals of the domestic economy are strong (despite some room for concern about Indonesia's widening current account deficit), it are external factors that put pressure on the rupiah.
The Indonesian rupiah depreciated heavily against the US dollar on Friday (20/04) amid the release of positive US economic data, a rise in the benchmark 10-year US bond yields, while the US Federal Reserve may remain on track to push for monetary tightening as concerns about geopolitical trouble and a global trade war ease. Meanwhile, the start of the US earnings season was promising with 88 percent of released reports either meeting or exceeding consensus (so far about 15 percent of US companies have released their corporate earnings reports).
Trade finance, a facility to finance export and import activities, remains attractive for the banking sector of Indonesia in 2018. In the first two months of 2018 trade finance surged 20 percent.
Artikel Terbaru Rupiah
Asian stocks, including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, continue their persistent slide on Friday (04/11) ahead of the US presidential election on Tuesday 8 November 2016. By 10:45 am local Jakarta time, Indonesian stocks were down 0.29 percent to 5,314.00 points, while the rupiah had depreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 13,093 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Besides the too-close-to-call US election, investors are also keeping an eye on the mass demonstration in Jakarta today.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Packaged food producer Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur, subsidiary of Indofood Sukses Makmur, is expected to see rising profit in the second half of 2016 on the back of lower prices of raw materials (particularly wheat flour, the key ingredient for instant noodles), the stronger rupiah and improved purchasing power of Indonesia's consumer force. Meanwhile, the company may manage to curb losses that originate from the beverage segment. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur has 6 business segments: noodles, dairy, snack foods, food seasoning, nutrition and special food products, and beverages.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has made some important decisions under the current Governor Agus Martowardojo. Here, Bank Indonesia has been directed toward achieving the responsibility of making financial decisions that promote consumer price stability over the long-term. This has resulted in widespread gains in the rupiah against a basket of world currencies -- including the US dollar. But recent rate cuts now have the potential to reverse these broader trends.
Many things happened this week. A devastating terror attack in Nice (France) killed at least 84 people, while - at the time of writing - a coup attempt occurred in Turkey (that seems to have failed). However, these events have little impact on the performance of global stocks and currencies (with the obvious exception of the Turkish lira). Wall Street touched record highs, while Indonesian stocks rose to a 13-month high and the Indonesian rupiah strengthened to a four-month high. Lets take a closer look at the performance of these markets over the past week.
As expected, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell on Friday (01/07) due to profit-taking after an impressive recent (relief) rally that brought the index into bull market territory earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah maintained its momentum, appreciating 0.72 percent to IDR 13,115 per US dollar on the first day of the new month, the currency's strongest level in three and a half months. Most Asian emerging markets have now repaired their earlier Brexit-induced losses.
Over the last few months, we have seen a good deal of stability in the financial markets. This has been the experience in most asset classes, and the global value of the Indonesian rupiah is giving investors an idea of how the IDR is likely to continue to perform as an emerging market asset.
The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.
Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.
Indonesian retail businesses are optimistic that their performance will improve in 2016 on the back of rising purchasing power amid the government's decision to cut energy tariffs (fuel and electricity) and its plan to raise non-taxable income by 50 percent. These moves mean that Indonesian consumers (particularly in the lower middle class segment) should have more money to spend. Tutum Rahanta, Deputy Chairman of the Indonesian Retailers Association (Aprindo), says retail business can grow by 12 - 15 percent (y/y) in 2016, considerably higher than the 7 - 8 percent (y/y) growth pace realized last year.
