Cement sales in Indonesia in the first four months of 2016 reached 19.3 million tons, up 4.2 percent (y/y) from the January-April period one year earlier, supported by additional cement supplies by three newcomers in Indonesia's cement industry and higher cement demand. The three newcomers supplied 600,000 tons of cement in the first four months. Trimegah Securities noted that without these additional supplies, Indonesia's cement sales in January-April 2016 would only have increased 0.7 percent (y/y).

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The cement manufacturers in Indonesia are in need of participating in a cement price war in order to gain market share in Southeast Asia's largest economy. According to analysts a price war cannot be avoided due to the influx of new players in Indonesia's cement industry. This influx causes rising cement production capacity in Indonesia, while domestic cement demand remains sluggish. The new and smaller cement players offer low prices to gain market share. The bigger and long-term established cement companies may need to join in this price war in order to defend their market share.

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Cement sales in Indonesia rose 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.45 million tons in February 2016 from the same month one year earlier. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesia's rising cement sales were caused by the ongoing development of infrastructure projects across the archipelago. Three regions showed a marked increase in cement sales last month: Sumatra (+16.5 percent y/y to 2.13 million tons), Sulawesi (+33 percent y/y to 841,000 tons) and the Moluccas & Papua (+31 percent y/y to 125,000 tons).

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The start of infrastructure projects in Indonesia - ranging from roads, bridges, power plants, smelters, and public housing - has managed to boost cement consumption in the first month of 2016. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said domestic cement consumption in Indonesia rose 4.4 percent (y/y) to 5.14 million tons in January 2016 from the same month one year earlier. Highest growth in consumption occurred in Sumatra (+15.8 percent y/y to 1.1 million tons), Java (+5.3 percent y/y to 2.9 million tons) and Sulawesi (+19 percent y/y to 424,000 tons).

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Indonesia's cement sales totaled 61 million tons in 2015, up 1.8 percent from sales in 2014. Although the pace of growth is limited, the final result was well received by stakeholders and policymakers because in the first half of 2015 the nation's cement sales growth still stood at -1.5 percent on a year-on-year basis due to a delay in government-led infrastructure development. In the second half of the year there occurred a surge in infrastructure development projects, hence triggering higher cement sales.

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Dorongan untuk pembangunan infrastruktur di seluruh Indonesia yang dipimpin Pemerintah, yang telah dimulai dari pertengahan tahun 2015, diperkirakan akan menyebabkan meningkatnya penjualan semen di Indonesia pada tahun 2016. Asosiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI) berharap akan terjadi pertumbuhan 5% dalam penjualan semen di Indonesia menjadi 64,5 juta ton tahun ini (dari perkiraan sebesar 61,5 juta ton pada tahun 2015). Namun, Ketua ASI Widodo Santoso menekankan bahwa penundaan pengeluaran Pemerintah bisa membahayakan pencapaian proyeksi penjualan.

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Cement sales in Indonesia climbed 4.7 percent (y/y) to 6.1 million tons in November 2015 supported by rising cement sales in all regions apart from the Moluccas and Papua. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said domestic cement demand rose sharply in November despite seeing some rainfall (which usually leads to delays in development of infrastructure and other construction projects). Santoso says this rise is due to improved government spending on infrastructure projects.

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According to the latest data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), Indonesia's cement sales climbed 10.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.4 million tons in October 2015 as government-related infrastructure development has picked up in the second half of the year (cement sales only contracted on the island of Kalimantan in October). Cement sales are an interesting indicator as they provide valuable information about the country's household consumption and investment in property and infrastructure sectors.

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In the first seven months of 2015 Indonesian cement sales continued to fall, signalling decreased property and infrastructure development in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Domestic cement sales fell 4.1 percent to 31.3 metric tons in the January-July 2015 period from the same period last year. Apart from the slowing economy (which slowed to a six-year low in the second quarter of 2015), weakening cement sales in July were also caused by Idul Fitri celebrations when business traditionally comes to a near standstill.

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Penjualan semen di Indonesia jatuh 2.9 persen (year-on-year) menjadi 4.5 juta ton pada bulan Januari 2015. Penurunan konsumsi semen terlihat di hampir seluruh wilayah Indonesia yang kemungkinan besar disebabkan oleh curah hujan tinggi yang telah melumpuhkan beberapa wilayah pada bulan Januari dan mengakibatkan perlambatan proyek konstruksi dan infrastruktur di dalam perekonomian terbesar Asia Tenggara. Widodo Santoso, Kepala Asoasiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI), mengatakan bahwa penurunan terbesar di dalam penjualan semen dilaporkan di Kalimantan dan Sumatra.

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Cement consumption in Indonesia grew 5.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 41.1 million tons in the January-August 2017 period (compared to the same period one year earlier). This can be labelled a rebound compared to bleak growth of 1.8 percent (y/y) and 1.6 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. This year Indonesian cement demand could in fact reach 64 million tons.

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Cement sales in Indonesia - a key indicator to measure the state of infrastructure and property development - declined 3.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.64 million tons in September 2016. This decline was attributed to fewer cement demand from the property sector (housing and apartments). Meanwhile, shares of state-controlled cement maker Semen Indonesia fell 2.91 percent on Tuesday (11/10) after Jakarta's Supreme Court revoked the environmental permit for the company's USD $320 million cement plant in Rembang (Central Java).

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Indonesia's cement exports are targeted to reach 1.5 million tons in 2016, up 50 percent (y/y) from the realization of approximately 1 million tons in the preceding year. Up to the end of July 2016 Indonesian cement exports had already risen by 63 percent (y/y) this year. Although coming from a low base, rapidly increasing cement exports are highly welcome to offset the nation's rising cement oversupply. Due to the arrival of new cement producers and production expansion of existing cement players, while domestic cement consumption remains bleak, there occurred a big oversupply.

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Data terakhir dari Asosiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI) menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi semen di Indonesia menurun 3,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 22,9 juta ton di lima bulan pertama tahun 2015 (dari 23,8 juta ton semen di periode yang sama tahun lalu). Kejatuhan ini adalah penurunan paling tajam dalam konsumsi semen Indonesia sejak 2009 waktu permintaan jatuh hampir 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) karena dampak dari krisis finansial dunia. Penurunan saat ini disebabkan oleh perlambatan perekonomian Indonesia dan jatuhnya harga-harga komoditi di luar Jawa.

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The year 2015 may be a good one for Indonesian cement makers. The Indonesian government under the leadership of Joko Widodo is eager to invest heavily in the country’s infrastructure as this is one of the main bottlenecks that blocks higher economic growth. In the Revised 2015 State Budget the central government set aside IDR 290.3 trillion (USD $22.3 billion) for infrastructure development. Surely, the country's large cement producers - Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Holcim Indonesia and Semen Baturaja - will benefit from this.

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Indonesian cement sales have slowed and may not achieve the target set for 2014. In the first half of 2014, the country’s domestic cement sales totaled 28.9 million tons, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the same period last year, well below the growth target of 6 percent (year-on-year, yoy). However, this development is no surprise as economic growth of Indonesia has slowed in recent years. Cement sales, a key indicator of construction activity (infrastructure and property development) are closely linked to general GDP growth.

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State-owned cement producer Semen Baturaja invites investors to its initial public offering (IPO) between 29 May and 7 June 2013 at the Ritz Carlton Pacific Place in Jakarta. Through this IPO, the company offers 2.34 billion shares (about 23.76 percent of its stock equity) to the public with an initial price target of IDR 500 - 685 per share (USD $0.05 - $0.07). Semen Baturaja will be listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) on 28 June 2013. The lead underwriters for this IPO are Bahana Securities, Danareksa Securities and Mandiri Securities.

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Cement consumption in Indonesia increased 8.6 percent to 18.11 million tons in the first four months of 2013. Demand was particularly supported by property and housing projects in the bigger cities of Indonesia. Another pillar of support was found in the development of various infrastructure projects (including those within the framework of the government's ambitious MP3EI plan). The Indonesian Cement Association expects this year's cement consumption in Indonesia to rise to 61 million tons in total.

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