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Berita Hari Ini BI Rate
Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi inflasi headline akan mencapai 2,79% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) dalam setahun penuh 2015, di bawah cakupan target bank sentral yaitu 3-5%. Inflasi di Indonesia pada tahun ini rendah, berakumulasi menjadi 2,16% di 10 bulan pertama tahun 2015, dan Bank Indonesia memperkirakan bahwa laju inflasi akan tetap terkontrol di dua bulan terakhir tahun 2015.
Pada 22 November 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami pada tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik berkaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti update pada neraca perdagangan Indonesia, tingkat suku bunga, pembangunan infrastruktur, obligasi global, penawaran saham perdana di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), perbankan syariah, dan banyak lagi.
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo announced during a press conference that the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent during the Board of Governor's Meeting on 17 November 2015. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia maintained the deposit facility rate and the lending facility rate at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. The current interest rate environment is considered sufficient to face persistent global uncertainties caused by the looming Fed Fund Rate hike and sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone and China.
In line with other Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rebounded sharply on Tuesday (17/11), boosted by the performance on Wall Street overnight where the major indices rose more than one percent. Positive sentiments are caused by a big jump in oil prices, while worries about the negative impact of the terrorist attack in Paris proved unfounded. By 11:55 am local Jakarta time, the Jakarta Composite Index was up 1.59 percent to 4,512.64 points. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.12 percent to IDR 13,732 per US dollar by the same time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
Agensi kredit global Fitch Ratings menyatakan dalam laporan Indonesia Property Watch yang terakhir bahwa permintaan di sektor properti di Indonesia tidak akan segera membaik dalam jangka waktu pendek. Sementara itu, Pemerintah Indonesia mengimplementasikan kebijakan-kebijakan untuk mendinginkan pasar properti di 2013 (karena pihak berwenang kuatir tentang munculnya sebuah gelembung), baru-baru ini Pemerintah telah mengubah sikapnya dan mengimplementasikan tindakan-tindakan untuk mendongkrak pasar karena perlambatan ekonomi di negara ini. Kendati begitu, Fitch Ratings tidak memprediksi akan terjadi rebound dalam jangka waktu dekat.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning that Indonesia's official third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 4.73 percent (y/y), slightly below analysts' consensus at 4.80 percent (y/y). However, Indonesia's economic expansion improved from the six-year low of 4.67 percent (y/y) in the preceding quarter. Still, growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy remains sluggish amid low commodity prices, weak global demand, weaker household consumption, the high interest rate environment, and stagnating investment.
The economic slowdown and looming capital outflows related to higher US interest rates have been the main reasons why it is highly unlikely for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to achieve its revised target of seeing 22 companies conducting an initial public offering (IPO) on the IDX in 2015. So far this year, only 13 companies have listed on the IDX. However, reportedly, there are still about a dozen local companies interested to prepare an IPO in the next two months.
On 18 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government's fourth stimulus package, Indonesia's trade balance, Bank Indonesia's interest rate regime, possible defaults of Indonesian companies, commodity updates, and more.
Seperti yang telah diprediksi, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50% dalam Pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bulan Oktober yang dilaksanakan pada hari Kamis (15/10). Sementara itu, Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga Fasilitas Simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi rate) dan suku bunga lending facility masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Suku bunga tidak diubah karena proyeksi perekonomian global masih sangat tidak jelas. Hal ini membahayakan stabilitas rupiah Indonesia.
After Islamic New Year celebrations, Indonesia’s financial markets reopened on Thursday (15/10). The sharp appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah on Thursday morning is remarkable. By 10:10 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had appreciated 2.36 percent to IDR 13,295 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) hence extending last week’s gains when Indonesia’s currency strengthened around 9 percent against the greenback. Emerging markets assets are still gaining on signs that the Federal Reserve will not raise US interest rates in the short-term.
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Some concern has been raised about the inflow of foreign 'hot money' into Indonesia amid accomodative monetary policies conducted by central banks of the Eurozone and Japan (the latter implemented negative interest rates in late-January). The world's carry traders are now seeking cheap funds in advanced economies and invest these funds in assets that have attractive returns such as Indonesian bonds and stocks. Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is still relatively high at 7.0 percent after a 25 basis points cut at Bank Indonesia's February 2016 policy meeting.
Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).
New York-based financial services firm Standard & Poor's stated that Indonesia's banking industry will feel the negative impact of Indonesia's sluggish economic growth in combination with persistently low commodity prices next year. This combination may weaken profitability of the nation's banking industry. S&P puts Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 at 5 percent (y/y), below the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's forecast as well as the central government's target, all at 5.3 percent (y/y).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) relatively high in order to safeguard Indonesia's financial stability in 2016 (instead of seeking accelerated economic growth through a rate cut). Despite easing pressures on inflation and the country's current account balance, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that persistent global uncertainty (referring to the looming US Fed Fund Rate hike and China's slowdown) justifies the tight monetary stance.
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- (investment grade) with a stable outlook. The country's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating, the senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds, and Islamic certificates (sukuk) were all affirmed at BBB-. Meanwhile, the short-term foreign currency IDR was affirmed at 'F3', the country ceiling at BBB, and the outlook on the long-term IDRs are stable. Through the affirmation Fitch acknowledges Indonesia's ongoing commitment to structural reforms amid recent economic woes.
Performa perekonomian Indonesia di kuartal 3 tahun 2015 agak mengecewakan pada 4,73% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) yang sedikit di bawah perkiraan pasar pada 4,8% (y/y). Kendati begitu, sebagai catatan positif, pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia berakselerasi dari level terendah selama 6 tahun terakhir pada 4,67% (y/y) di kuartal sebelumnya. Tabel di bawah menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan kuartal 3 PDB Indonesia jarang melebihi pertumbuhan kuartal 2. Ini jelas merupakan pertanda yang memberikan harapan.
Karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah menurun menjadi 6,25% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) pada bulan Oktober 2015 dari 6,83% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya, dan karena inflasi Indonesia akan semakin menurun secara mencolok di dua bulan terakhir tahun 2015 yang disebabkan oleh menghilangnya dampak dari kenaikan harga bahan bakar bersubsidi pada November 2014, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) tampaknya memiliki ruang untuk memotong suku bunga acuannya yang relatif tinggi saat ini, sehingga memungkinkan akselerasi aktivitas ekonomi.
The central bank of Indonesia announced on Thursday (17/09) that it the country’s key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. According to Bank Indonesia (BI) this decision is consistent with its efforts to push inflation towards the target corridor of 4±1 percent in both 2015 and 2016. In addition, the decision is also part of Bank Indonesia’s measures to anticipate possibilities of a Fed Fund Rate (FFR) hike.
During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.
Sejak akhir 2011 Indonesia telah dibebani oleh defisit transaksi berjalan struktural yang menguatirkan baik para pembuat kebijakan maupun para investor (asing). Meskipun pihak berwenang di Indonesia telah mengimplementasikan reformasi kebijakan dan penyesuaian perekonomian di beberapa tahun terakhir, defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia hanya sedikit berubah di 2015. Baik Bank Dunia maupun Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa defisit transaksi berjalan akan tetap berada sedikit di bawah 3% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 2015, sangat dekat dengan batasan yang memisahkan defisit yang sustainable dan yang unsustainable.
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