There is limited to no room for palm oil prices to rise in the remainder of 2015 as crude palm oil (CPO) reserves have climbed while exports are down. CPO production in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of this commodity, may have hit the one-year high of 3.20 million tons in August (from 2.86 million tons one month earlier) as trees reached their peak production period. Meanwhile, India introduced higher taxes for overseas purchases of palm oil in order to protect domestic growers.

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Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to reach 40 million tons in 2020, in line with the government’s national program and downstream CPO roadmap. At the 3rd Indonesia International Palm Oil Processing Machinery & Technology Exhibition, Pranata, Director of Forest and Plantation Industries at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, said that, based on the roadmap, targeted CPO production growth should average 6.8 percent per year up to 2020, so the country will produce 40 million tons by that year.

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After introducing palm oil export levies earlier this month, the Indonesian Finance Ministry announced on Tuesday (28/07) that it has implemented another change in the country’s palm oil industry. From now on, export taxes for crude palm oil (CPO) and other palm oil products will be expressed in US dollar instead of a percentage of the price. Indonesia’s palm oil export tax kicks in when the government’s reference CPO price exceeds USD $750 per metric ton. If the price is below this level, palm oil exporters only need to pay the new export levies.

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Pada 19 Juli 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletternya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami selama tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik membahas tentang isu ekonomi seperti update proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dari Bank Pembangunan Asia untuk wilayah Asia, tingkat suku bunga Indonesia, neraca perdagangan Juni, kebijakan Open Sky ASEAN, update industri minyak sawit, dan banyak lagi.

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Pejabat Pemerintah Indonesia mengumumkan bahwa pungutan ekspor minyak sawit yang baru saja disosialisasikan akan mulai diterapkan pada hari Kamis (16/07). Peraturan baru ini mengharuskan bahwa pungutan sebesar 50 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton diterapkan untuk ekspor minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) dan beacukai senilai 30 dollar AS per metrik ton ditetapkan untuk ekspor produk olahan minyak sawit. Pungutan ekspor minyak sawit ini hanya perlu dibayar oleh para eksportir saat harga referensi CPO dari Pemerintah jatuh di bawah 750 dollar AS per metrik ton, yang secara efektif memotong pajak ekspor minyak sawit menjadi 0%.

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Ketidakjelasan terus berlanjut mengenai waktu implementasi cukai ekspor minyak sawit. Di Mei 2015 Presiden Indonesia Joko Widodo menandatangani peraturan baru yang memberlakukan cukai 50 dollar AS (per metrik ton) untuk ekspor minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO), dan cukai 30 dollar AS (per metrik ton) untuk ekspor produk minyak sawit olahan. Hasil dari cukai ekspor ini akan digunakan untuk membiayai program (subsidi) biodiesel Pemerintah. Meskipun begitu, implementasi dari peraturan ini telah ditunda beberapa kali.

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Indonesia’s new palm oil export levy is to be implemented in late May 2015. Rida Mulyana, Director General of Renewable Energy at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources, stated that President Joko Widodo signed the regulation last night (05/05). The new levy means that a USD $50 (per metric ton) levy is to be imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) exports, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) levy on processed palm oil product exports. Proceeds from these export levies will be used to fund the government’s biodiesel (subsidy) program.

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Due to rising output amid the start of the seasonal increase in production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers, CPO prices may touch a six-year low in 2015. According to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International, there is one factor that may be able to block CPO prices from reaching this low and that is the successful implementation of Indonesia’s biodiesel program as this would absorb a significant portion of Indonesian CPO output hence reducing downward pressures on CPO prices.

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After having decided to introduce export levies for palm oil, the Indonesian government is considering to impose similar measures on rubber, coffee and other commodities in a move to generate capital to invest in the country’s agriculture industry. Per April 2015, a USD $50 (per metric ton) export levy is imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) shipments, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) export levy on processed palm oil export products. Proceeds from these CPO levies will be allocated to finance the government’s biodiesel program.

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Pengapalan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) dari Malaysia naik 18% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) pada bulan Maret karena perusahaan-perusahaan segera mengekspor CPO sebelum penerapan (kembali) pajak ekspor 4,5% di bulan April. Pajak ekspor ini telah dihapus sejak September 2014 dalam usaha untuk mendongkrak permintaan dan harga CPO. Diprediksi bahwa produksi rata-rata CPO di Malaysia naik 18% (m/m) menjadi 1,32 juta ton di bulan Maret, yang juga berarti bahwa produksi minyak sawit di Malaysia meningkat untuk pertama kalinya di dalam 7 bulan.

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Reserves of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia may have declined for a second straight month in October on the back of drought and an increase in exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The delayed impact of drought (which even managed to dry up several rivers in West Kalimantan in October) limited production of CPO in recent weeks. Meanwhile, exports have increased after Indonesia and Malaysia - the world’s two top palm oil producers - scrapped export taxes to boost demand for this commodity.

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Indonesia has the potential to become a global force in the biodiesel industry because of the country’s position as the world’s top producer of crude palm oil (CPO). In 2014, Indonesia’s CPO production is estimated to total 30 million tons. Traditionally, Indonesia exports about 75 percent of its total CPO production, particularly to the giant economies of China and India. As such, this commodity is one of Indonesia's most important foreign exchange earners, apart from coal, in the non-oil and gas sector.

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The Indonesian government is considering to stop exports of crude palm oil (CPO) to Europe from 2014 onwards as domestic CPO demand in Southeast Asia's largest economy is rising, brought on by the country's biofuel industry which is expected to grow 70 percent next year to 5 million tons. To curtail oil imports, the government stimulates the production of crude palm oil-based biofuel by raising the mandatory content of fatty acid methyl ester (which is made from palm oil) in biodiesel products from 7.5 percent to 10 percent.

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Indonesia's production of crude palm oil (CPO) in the first six months of 2013 rose 25.64 percent compared to semester I-2012 to 14.7 million tons, which is a little over half of this year's CPO production target. Despite weak global demand for the commodity (accompanied by falling CPO prices), growth was accomplished due to new seeds that became productive and because the total size of Indonesian palm oil estates continues to expand. Productive estates now stand at 9.4 million hectares from 8.7 million hectares last year.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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