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Berita Hari Ini Credit
Despite Indonesia's better-than-expected 5.27 percent year-on-year (y/y) economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2018, there remain plenty of domestic and external uncertainties that make businesses hesitant to take up credit. This is evidenced by the rising ratio of the country's undisbursed loans.
Dynamic Credit, a Netherlands-based innovative asset management and direct lending firm, is set to become a new player in Indonesia's mortgage industry. Through local subsidiary Dynamic Credit Asia it will sell mortgages to Indonesian consumers using funds from local institutional investors. Tonko Gast, CEO at Dynamic Credit, said Indonesia's rapidly growing middle class leads to a rising pool of retirement and insurance funds. However, the availability of fixed-income investments are limited in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Consumer credit has been the driver for credit growth in Indonesia's banking sector in the first two months of 2018. Within consumer credit it are the multipurpose and motor vehicles segments that show good growth. Based on data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) consumer credit grew 11.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 1,392.4 trillion (approx. USD $101.6 billion) in February 2018, accelerating from a 10.4 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding month.
Local banks in Indonesia remain hesitant to disburse loans to companies that are engaged in Indonesia's mining sector due to the high degree of bad debt in this sector. Hence, credit disbursement to the country's mining sector continues to shrink. On the one hand, it is positive that Indonesia's banking sector becomes less dependent on the volatile movement of mining commodity prices.
Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, said credit growth in the domestic banking sector reached 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) per November 2017, lower than the growth rate in the preceding month (8.1 percent y/y). In absolute terms credit growth in Indonesia's banking sector stood at IDR 4,635 trillion (approx. USD $343 billion) in the January-November 2017 period.
Although Indonesian consumers are increasingly spending on leisure activities and entertainment (rather than purchasing goods), local banks are still hesitant to disburse credit to sectors that support these leisure activities, such as the hotel industry.
Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is optimistic that credit growth will accelerate in Indonesia in 2018. The lender of last resort set its credit growth forecast for 2018 at the range of 12-14 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from its 10-12 percent (y/y) growth forecast for 2017, on the back of accelerating economic growth. The Indonesian government proposes economic growth at 5.4 percent (y/y) in 2018 (possibly a too ambitious target).
Credit growth in Indonesia's banking sector is estimated to have, finally, touched double-digit figures in the first half of 2017, while growth should further accelerate in the remainder of the year. Some Indonesian banks saw their credit growth figures touch 20 percent (y/y) so far this year, a marked improvement from the situation one year ago. Lets zoom in on the performance of two big Indonesian banks.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be below earlier estimates in both the first and second quarters of 2017. However, the lender of last resort remains optimistic that Indonesia's full-year economic growth can reach a pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y), accelerating from 5.02 percent (y/y) in the preceding year.
Although Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) lowered its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points in 2016 and eased the nation's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, implying it should be easier for Indonesian consumers to buy a house or apartment, the disbursement of house ownership credit (kredit pemilikan rumah, abbreviated as KPR) and apartment ownership credit (kredit pemilikan apartment, KPA) in Indonesia remains bleak so far in 2017.
Artikel Terbaru Credit
Bank Indonesia amended its regulation concerning the Loan To Value (LTV) and Financing To Value (FTV) ratio for property credit and property-backed consumer loans. The LTV/FTV ratio is the ratio between the value of credit/financing that can be allocated by a bank and the corresponding value of collateral in the form of property when the loan is allocated. Property is real property that includes houses, vertical housing (apartments, flats, condominiums and penthouses), home offices and home stores.
In order to avert a potential bubble in Indonesia's property sector, Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) is planning to further tighten its monetary policy in the sector. After having raised the minimum down payment requirement on housing loans to 30 percent for first home ownership (thus a loan-to-value ratio of 70 percent) in June 2012, Bank Indonesia now intends to prohibit credits for the purchase of a second, third (or more) house that has not been built yet (still in the preconstruction phase). This new rule is expected to be introduced this month.
Starting from 1 September 2013, the minimum down payment for the purchase of a second house or apartment (bigger than 70 m²) in Indonesia will be raised to 40 percent. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) implements this new rule to avoid a possible credit bubble in Indonesia's property sector. The country's property sector has been booming in recent years, giving rise to many new property projects, soaring profits for property companies (as well as impressive stock performance) and significantly rising property prices.
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