Ceramic sales in Indonesia are projected to decline to IDR 25 trillion (approx. USD $1.8 billion) in 2015 from total sales worth IDR 36 trillion last year. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said 2015 is a year full of challenges for the domestic ceramic industry due to Indonesia's slowing economic growth (particularly the slowdown of the nation's property sector), high gas prices, higher minimum wages, and the fragile rupiah (having depreciated around 11 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015).

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The ceramic industry in Indonesia is expected to grow about ten percent in 2015 amid the country’s +5 percentage point GDP growth. Economic expansion translates to increased purchasing power of Indonesian consumers and the ceramic industry is one of the industries that will benefit from this. Moreover, as Indonesian President Joko Widodo targets +7 percent GDP by the end of his term, new infrastructure and property projects are to rise as well. As such, domestic ceramic demand will increase accordingly.

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The Indonesian ceramic industry is expected to continue its steady growth in 2014. Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI) Elisa Sinaga said that ceramic sales may reach IDR 36 trillion (USD $3.1 billion) in 2014. Most of these sales - approximately 87 percent - are sold on the domestic market, while the remainder is exported. The sales volume of sanitary ceramics (used on walls and floors) is targeted at 410 million m2 this year (worth roughly IDR 27 trillion), up from 360 million m2 in 2013 (IDR 24 trillion).

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Growth of the Indonesian property sector, estimated at 10 to 15 percent in 2014, boosts sales of ceramics. Similarly, the nation's construction sector - which grew 7 percent per year on average between 2009 and 2013 - stimulates the ceramic industry. This year, revenue in the Indonesian ceramic industry is projected at IDR 34 trillion (USD $3.0 billion). About 85 percent of total revenue in the country's ceramic industry is forecast to be generated through domestic sales, the remainder through exports abroad.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of Arwana Citramulia. The company is one of the big four ceramics manufacturers in Indonesia, commanding a domestic market share of 20 percent in Indonesia's ceramics industry. It produces low cost ceramic tiles to serve the medium-low segment market nationwide. As Indonesia's ceramic consumption is still very low at one square meter per capita, the company expects good growth in the years ahead and therefore opened a fourth plant in 2013.

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Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), still expects domestic demand for ceramic products to remain bleak as there are no signs of improvement originating from Indonesia's property sector (compared to last year). However, Indonesia's ceramic exports are expected to rise in 2017.

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Utilization of Indonesia's installed ceramic production capacity fell from 92 percent in 2014 to 62 percent in 2015, while the country's ceramic sales plunged 28.6 percent (y/y) to 350 million square meters over the same period. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said ceramic sales have fallen over the past two years due to slowing economic growth and the sluggish property sector. Sales are expected to remain stagnant in 2016.

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Higher sales, higher selling prices, and lower production costs are expected to impact positively on the performance of Arwana Citramulia, one of Indonesia's big four ceramic manufacturers. The company's ceramic sales volume is projected to surge 35 percent (y/y) to 53 million square meters in 2016 from this year's estimated 40 million square meters, partly supported by the start of operations of Arwana Citramulia's new factory in Mojokerto (East Java). Arwana controls about 26 percent of Indonesia's ceramic tiles market among low-income consumers with its two flagship brands: Arwana and Uno.

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With slowing economic growth and a stricter monetary policy approach of the central bank, Indonesia's ceramic industry is expected to record slowing growth in 2014. This year, the country's ceramic sales are projected to amount to 400 million square meters (m²). About 12 percent of this amount is exported to countries abroad. However, in 2014, sales are expected to plunge by 5 to 10% to 360-380 million m². A weakening rupiah and slowing property sector, which accounts for significant ceramic demand, are the major causes of the decline.

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Indonesia's ceramic industry recorded sales amounting to IDR 14 trillion (USD $1.4 billion) in the first six months of 2013. This implies a 27 percent increase compared to ceramic sales in the same period in 2012. The increase is particularly caused by higher sales prices in January and March 2013 which were introduced to mitigate higher gas and electricity tariffs as well as higher minimum wages. Generally, ceramic prices rose 10 to 15 percent. Ceramics sales volume in semester I-2013 increased to 190 million m² from 180 m² in 2012.

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