In the first seven months of 2015 Indonesian cement sales continued to fall, signalling decreased property and infrastructure development in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Domestic cement sales fell 4.1 percent to 31.3 metric tons in the January-July 2015 period from the same period last year. Apart from the slowing economy (which slowed to a six-year low in the second quarter of 2015), weakening cement sales in July were also caused by Idul Fitri celebrations when business traditionally comes to a near standstill.

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Two important indicators to measure the condition of an economy are car and cement sales as both statistics provide valuable information about people’s purchasing power (and consumer confidence) as well as infrastructure and property development. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s car and cement sales declined (compared to the same period in the preceding year), triggering concern that economic growth will fall accordingly. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia’s GDP growth had already slowed to 5.14 percent (y/y).

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According to the latest survey of Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia), the country’s January retail sales accelerated 10.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from the 3.3 percentage point growth pace (y/y) in the preceding month. Retail sales in the first month of the year in Southeast Asia’s largest economy accelerated because of higher sales of information & communication equipment (+29.9 percent y/y) as well as food, beverages & tobacco products (+15.1 percent y/y).

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Penjualan semen di Indonesia jatuh 2.9 persen (year-on-year) menjadi 4.5 juta ton pada bulan Januari 2015. Penurunan konsumsi semen terlihat di hampir seluruh wilayah Indonesia yang kemungkinan besar disebabkan oleh curah hujan tinggi yang telah melumpuhkan beberapa wilayah pada bulan Januari dan mengakibatkan perlambatan proyek konstruksi dan infrastruktur di dalam perekonomian terbesar Asia Tenggara. Widodo Santoso, Kepala Asoasiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI), mengatakan bahwa penurunan terbesar di dalam penjualan semen dilaporkan di Kalimantan dan Sumatra.

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Growth of cement sales in Indonesia is estimated to have slowed in 2014 amid uncertainties brought about by the ‘political year’ (referring to the fragmented results of the country’s legislative and presidential elections and which led to the postponement of various infrastructure projects and other investments in Indonesia). Other factors that impacted negatively on cement sales this year were the central bank’s higher interest rate policy, low commodity prices and weakening purchasing power.

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Cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise as the new Indonesian government aims to ramp up infrastructure development while - in the long term - Indonesian banks will lower interest rates. Lower interest rates give rise to enhanced property development in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The country’s three leading cement producers are expected to benefit significantly from these developments. These companies are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, and Holcim Indonesia.

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Cement sales in Indonesia surged 21 percent month-to-month (m/m) to 5.6 million ton in September 2014 from 4.6 million ton in the preceding month. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the increase in Indonesian cement sales was supported by the start of a number of central and regional government infrastructure projects. Santoso also detected an increase in development of property projects. Infrastructure and property are the sectors that absorb most cement.

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Penjualan semen di Indonesia turun 25 persen menjadi 3.7 juta ton pada Juli 2014 dari 5 juta ton pada Juli 2013. Penurunan tajam ini disebabkan oleh libur Lebaran (atau Idul Fitri di mana umat Islam merayakan berakhir bulan puasa), waktu banyak kegiatan usaha bisnis dihentikan sementara, serta pemilu presiden yang diadakan juga pada bulan Juli 2014. Melambatnya penjualan semen juga disebabkan oleh menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi (5.12 persen yoy pada kwartal kedua 2014). Penjualan semen merupakan indikator utama kegiatan konstruksi (pembangunan infrastruktur dan properti).

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Data terakhir dari Asosiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI) menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi semen di Indonesia menurun 3,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 22,9 juta ton di lima bulan pertama tahun 2015 (dari 23,8 juta ton semen di periode yang sama tahun lalu). Kejatuhan ini adalah penurunan paling tajam dalam konsumsi semen Indonesia sejak 2009 waktu permintaan jatuh hampir 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) karena dampak dari krisis finansial dunia. Penurunan saat ini disebabkan oleh perlambatan perekonomian Indonesia dan jatuhnya harga-harga komoditi di luar Jawa.

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Indonesian cement sales jumped 37.4 percent (year-on-year) to 4.7 million tons in August 2014 due to higher cement demand from Indonesian property and infrastructure developers. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the development of smelters, power plants, apartments, hotels, and social housing has been key to improved cement sales last month. However, the 37.4 percentage point growth was also caused by fewer working days in August 2013 as the Lebaran holiday fell in that month.

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Indonesian cement sales have slowed and may not achieve the target set for 2014. In the first half of 2014, the country’s domestic cement sales totaled 28.9 million tons, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the same period last year, well below the growth target of 6 percent (year-on-year, yoy). However, this development is no surprise as economic growth of Indonesia has slowed in recent years. Cement sales, a key indicator of construction activity (infrastructure and property development) are closely linked to general GDP growth.

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Indonesian cement sales fell 0.4 percent (year-on-year) to 4.52 million tons in April 2014. The decline in cement sales was the result of the country’s legislative election that was held on 9 April 2014 as consumers bought few building materials during the campaign period. Head of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) Widodo Santoso stated that a number of large infrastructure projects are currently being tendered and are thus unable to boost domestic cement sales yet.

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Indonesia's cement sales in January 2014 declined 1 percent to 4.65 million metric tons from the same month in 2013 (4.68 million metric tons). The decline was caused by severe floods brought about by high rainfall amid a peak in Indonesia's rainy season. The floods resulted in disrupted distribution networks, therefore blocking cement shipments to retailers. Moreover, these weather conditions caused the postponement of several construction activities, thus reducing demand for cement.

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According to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), domestic cement sales have fallen 5.8 percent to 3.3 million tons in August 2013 (from the same month last year). Being an important indicator of economic expansion (as cement sales inform about the development of property and infrastructure projects in the country), these lower cement sales confirm the slowing pace of economic growth in Indonesia. Compared to July 2013, cement sales in Indonesia fell by a massive 32 percent.

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