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Again, crude palm oil (CPO) shipments from Indonesia - the world's largest CPO producer and exporter - declined. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), palm oil exports from Indonesia fell 16 percent on a month-on-month (m/m) basis to 2.1 million tons in January 2016. This decline was mainly caused by falling palm oil demand from the key export countries China and India.
Again there has emerged speculation that Indonesia may not fully implement its ban on exports of concentrates (partially processed metals) in 2017. This controversial ban, part of the country's 2009 Mining Law, aims to boost domestic processing facilities and reduce the country's dependence on raw commodity exports. The ban was originally implemented in January 2014. However, as there was insufficient domestic smelting capacity full implementation would imply a huge revenue loss. Therefore, concentrate exports were allowed to resume (until 2017) provided exporters pay higher taxes, royalties and provide evidence that they are committed to develop smelters.
Gejolak ekonomi yang telah mendorong pertumbuhan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) ke level terendah dalam 25 tahun terakhir telah berdampak langsung pada Indonesia karena RRT adalah mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Kekuatiran akan perlambatan ekonomi RRT (dan dampak perlambatan ini pada ekonomi dunia) bertahan pada tahun 2016 karena Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) menurun selama 10 bulan berturut-turut di Desember 2015 (di 48,2), sedangkan pembacaan jasa layanan untuk bulan Desember turun ke level terendah dalam 17 bulan terakhir (50,2).
Rupiah Indonesia menguat secara signifikan terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (21/12) kendati ada prediksi bahwa rupiah akan menjadi mata uang dengan performa terburuk di Asia pada tahun 2016 akibat capital outflows (karena suku bunga AS direncanakan akan semakin dinaikkan pada tahun 2016), cadangan devisa Indonesia yang menurun, dan harga-harga komoditi yang terus-menerus rendah. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah menguat 1,13% menjadi Rp 13.760 per dollar AS pada pukul 14:20 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Senin (21/12).
Meskipun musim dingin telah tiba, harga minyak dunia masih menurun. Hari ini (21/12), harga minyak mentah Brent jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2004 karena kekuatiran yang berkelanjutan tentang berlimpahnya suplai global karena Energy Information Administration melaporkan bahwa suplai minyak mentah AS naik 4,8 juta barel menjadi 490,7 juta pada minggu kedua bulan Desember, sementara tingkat produksi OPEC mencapai 31,7 juta barel per hari (bph) pada bulan November 2015. Sementara itu, permintaan minyak diperkirakan akan turun di tahun 2016. Sebagai contoh, konsumsi minyak di AS diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 1,2 juta bph tahun depan, dari 1,8 bph pada tahun 2015.
Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo) optimis bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia akan mencapai 5,5% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2016, angka yang lebih tinggi dari proyeksi yang ditetapkan Pemerintah Pusat dan bank sentral. Optimisme Apindo berdasarkan pada prediksi bahwa investasi publik dan swasta akan meningkat tahun depan karena iklim investasi yang membaik di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini, yang disebabkan oleh serangkaian paket stimulus ekonomi yang diumumkan Pemerintah di beberapa bulan terakhir dan juga stabilitas politik dan sosial.
More than 60 percent of Indonesia's soybean consumption still needs to be imported from abroad. To reduce its dependence on soybean imports Indonesia's Agriculture Ministry aims to enhance domestic soybean production. For this reason soybeans have been included in the government's list of strategic food commodities (other examples are rice, sugar and corn), meaning these food items get special attention from the government. The Agriculture Ministry targets to see the production of 1.5 million tons of soybean in 2016, up from an expected 920,000 tons this year. Meanwhile, Indonesian soybean demand in 2015 is estimated to reach 2.3 million tons.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (05/08) that the Indonesian economy grew 4.67 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015, the slowest pace since 2009. However, the result was in line with expectation. Most analysts assumed that economic growth would continue to slow as there has been no rebound in global commodity prices, interest rates remained high, people’s purchasing power weakened, government spending remained problematic, companies Q2-2015 earnings reports were not too good, and manufacturing contracted.
Semakin kuat dugaan bahwa fenomena cuaca El Nino akan berdampak pada Indonesia dalam beberapa bulan mendatang. Selama beberapa minggu terakhir ini muncul beberapa laporan mengenai cuaca kering yang ganjil dan memberikan dampak negatif pada panen dan komoditi agrikultur di sejumlah wilayah Asia Tenggara. Di Indonesia, cuaca kering pada umumnya terjadi dari bulan Mei sampai Agustus. Meskipun begitu, El Nino mungkin menyebabkan cuaca yang lebih hangat dan memperpanjang musim kering sampai September dan karenanya mempengaruhi produksi di puncak musim panen. Hal ini akan mengurangi hasil produksi agrikultur dan menyebabkan tekanan inflasi.
In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR), Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the economy of Indonesia is currently facing four global risks. These four risks are low international commodity prices, China’s slowing economic expansion, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone and, lastly, further monetary tightening to be conducted by the US Federal Reserve. These issues are not new and have already contributed to slowing economic growth in Indonesia.
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The government of Indonesia is yet to find a middle way between encouraging the development of processing facilities for the country's mining output and the relaxation of mineral ore exports. Based on Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law), exports of mineral ore should have been fully banned in 2014. However, due to the lack of domestic smelting capacity a last-minute regulation was signed in early January 2014 by former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that softened this ban.
On Monday (04/01) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the number of Indonesian people living below the poverty line stood at 28.51 million people in September 2015, or 11.13 percent of the total Indonesian population. Compared to March 2015 the number of Indonesians living below the poverty line fell by 80,000 people. However, compared to September 2014 the number rose by 78,000 people. BPS releases poverty figures twice per year covering the months March and September.
After having experienced two consecutive months of deflation in September and October, Indonesia is expected to see inflation again in November, primarily on higher food prices (chicken meat and rice). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects an inflation rate of 0.2 percent (month-on-month) in November. This would mean that inflation in full-year 2015 is likely to reach 3 percent (y/y), in line with earlier estimates and within - or perhaps slightly below - Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) of inflation in 2015.
In the latest update of its flagship publication Asian Development Outlook 2015, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said softer economic growth prospects of China and India in combination with slow recovery in the major industrial markets were reason why the ADB has cut its economic growth forecast for developing Asia in 2015 and 2016. The ADB now estimates GDP growth in developing Asia at 5.8 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 6.0 percent (y/y) in 2016, down from previous GDP growth forecasts of 6.3 percent (y/y) for both years.
In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.
Pada awal 2014 Indonesia memperkenalkan larangan ekspor yang telah lama direncanakan untuk biji mineral mentah dalam usaha untuk memperkuat perekonomian domestik dengan mengurangi ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditi mentah dan mengharuskan para penambang untuk mengolah biji-biji mentah di dalam negeri sebelum ekspor diizinkan. Sebagai suplier global penting untuk sejumlah biji mentah, peraturan Indonesia yang baru ini (ditetapkan oleh UU No. 4/2009 mengenai Pertambangan Batubara dan Mineral) memiliki dampak yang signifikan pada pasar dan harga global, salah satunya nikel.
Indonesia posted a higher-than-expected USD $454.4 million trade surplus in April 2015. Previously, analysts predicted to see an April trade surplus of around USD $120 million. However, the USD $454.4 million trade surplus was smaller than the (revised) USD $1 billion trade surplus recorded in March. Moreover, the April surplus (the country’s fifth consecutive trade surplus) is primarily caused by a large drop in imports, signalling that Indonesia’s economic performance remains sluggish at the start of Q2-2015.
Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. This interest rate environment is considered to be in line with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to push the country’s inflation figure within its target of 4±1 percent for 2015 and 2016, as well as to control the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.
When we look at activity in the precious metals markets over the last decade, one of the biggest developing trends has been the increase in both demand and production output from emerging Asian economies. For most of this period, Indonesia has been participating with these trends - especially on the production output front. As recently as 2009, Indonesia was responsible for 130 tons worth of gold production, as mining activity becomes more efficient and increased investment resources flow into the country.
There was few good news from a global economic perspective as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply cut its outlook for global economic growth in the next two years. According to the IMF, global economic growth will only reach 3.5 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016 due to poorer prospects in China, Russia, the Eurozone, and Japan. Economic growth of China (the world’s second-largest economy) fell to a 24-year low at 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, below the government target of 7.5 percent (y/y).
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