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Berita Hari Ini Commodities

  • GDP Growth Indonesia Update: What about Economic Growth in Q3-2014?

    Economic growth in Indonesia is expected to continue to slow in the third quarter of 2014 according to the country’s central bank. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo said on Thursday (30/10) that the institution believes gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Southeast Asia’s largest economy to reach 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q3-2014, similar to the GDP growth result in the previous quarter (5.12 percent, y/y). Main reason for this slowing pace is the sluggish global economy and particularly the case of China.

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  • Cocoa Update: Global Price, Harvests in Ivory Coast & Ghana, and Ebola

    Contrary to most other (agricultural) commodities, the global price of cocoa has increased in the second half of 2014. While prices of commodities such as oil, soybeans, corn and wheat have eased due to robust global supply, and others - such as cotton - have eased amid lower global demand, the price of cocoa has been rising steadily. Despite a weak start in 2014, the cocoa price has grown over 10 percent (after having rallied around 25 percent in 2013). Main reason for this performance is the world’s rising cocoa demand.

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  • Amid Sluggish Global Economy Value of Indonesian Exports Revised Down

    With China’s economic growth slowing to 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, Indonesian exports will be affected as China is one of Indonesia’s most important trading partners. Prior to the release of China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result, the outgoing government of Indonesia had already trimmed its export target for 2014 as global commodity prices have still not picked up. In fact prices of palm oil, coal, rubber, copper and iron ore have fallen in the first three quarters of 2014 according to Indonesian government data.

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  • Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Exports from Indonesia Sluggish on Weak Demand

    Exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and CPO derived products from Indonesia in the first nine months of 2014 only reached 15 million tons, down 1.75 percent from the same period last year. The main cause for this disappointing performance is slowing economic growth in China and India resulting in reduced palm oil demand from these two giant economies. As a result of weak global demand, the CPO price has fallen to an average price of USD $712 per ton in September 2014, down 5.4 percent from the previous month.

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  • Malaysia Extends Zero Palm Oil Export Tariff, Indonesia May Follow Suit

    Malaysia announced that it has extended its zero export tariff for crude palm oil (CPO) until the end of the year in an attempt to boost sales. Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Douglas Uggah Embas said that this decision is aimed at preventing a further drastic fall in CPO prices. Palm oil futures declined by about 18 percent in 2014 amid an oversupply in combination with weak global demand. Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s top palm oil producers and exporters.

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  • Rice in Indonesia: Irrigation, Sawah Size & Seeds Need Improvement

    Often the lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure in Indonesia has been cited as a reason for limited economic growth. Lack of adequate infrastructure causes the country's logistics costs to rise steeply, thus reducing competitiveness and attractiveness of the investment climate. Also in the country’s natural resources sector Indonesia’s infrastructure problems hamper development. For instance, the lack of quality irrigation to supply ample quantities of water to rice basins causes rice production to be far from optimal.

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  • Similar to Malaysia, Indonesia May Cut Export Tax for Crude Palm Oil

    Speculation emerged that Indonesia will scrap its export tariff for crude palm oil (CPO) in an attempt to boost sales. Three weeks ago, Malaysia had already scrapped the export tax for CPO for a period of two months to support exports and reverse a decline in CPO prices. Malaysian palm oil exports then immediately surged over 30 percent (month-to-month) in the first half of September, indicating the success of the export tax policy. Thus, the two countries - the world’s two largest producers and exporters of CPO - may become involved in a ‘tax war’.

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  • Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Update Indonesia: Production Up, Price Down

    Indonesian stockpiles of crude palm oil (CPO) in August 2014 may have reached the highest level in 15 months on increased production and reduced global demand. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, CPO stockpiles in Indonesia surged 24 percent to 2.5 million metric tons in August (from 2.02 million metric tons in the previous month). Meanwhile, Indonesian CPO production grew 19 percent to 2.55 million metric tons, while CPO exports declined 2.2 percent to 1.8 million metric tons. Bloomberg used data from five planters and one refiner.

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  • Heavy Equipment Market in Indonesia Burdened by Low Commodity Prices

    The production of heavy equipment in Indonesia in the first half of 2014 fell by 25 percent (year-on-year) to 2,292 units. The decline in production is due to the still weak state of the mining and construction sectors in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Main reasons being the implementation of the mineral ore export ban in January 2014 and low commodity prices, for example coal. Limited construction projects have been undertaken in the first half of 2014 as investors wanted to wait for the results of Indonesia’s legislative and presidential elections first.

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  • World Bank Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Structural Reforms Needed

    The World Bank revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia for the year 2014. In the July 2014 edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly, the institution projects economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy at 5.2 percent, slightly down from its previous forecast of 5.3 percent. The downgrade is the result of a weaker outlook for commodity prices and tighter credit conditions. Moreover, the growing fiscal deficit contributes to the challenges that will be faced by the new government (which will be inaugurated in October 2014).

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Artikel Terbaru Commodities

  • Poverty Rate Indonesia: 11.1% of Population in September 2015

    On Monday (04/01) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the number of Indonesian people living below the poverty line stood at 28.51 million people in September 2015, or 11.13 percent of the total Indonesian population. Compared to March 2015 the number of Indonesians living below the poverty line fell by 80,000 people. However, compared to September 2014 the number rose by 78,000 people. BPS releases poverty figures twice per year covering the months March and September.

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  • Economic Update Indonesia: November Inflation Expected at 0.2%

    After having experienced two consecutive months of deflation in September and October, Indonesia is expected to see inflation again in November, primarily on higher food prices (chicken meat and rice). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects an inflation rate of 0.2 percent (month-on-month) in November. This would mean that inflation in full-year 2015 is likely to reach 3 percent (y/y), in line with earlier estimates and within - or perhaps slightly below - Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) of inflation in 2015.

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  • Asian Development Bank Cuts Economic Growth Outlook 2015 & 2016

    In the latest update of its flagship publication Asian Development Outlook 2015, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said softer economic growth prospects of China and India in combination with slow recovery in the major industrial markets were reason why the ADB has cut its economic growth forecast for developing Asia in 2015 and 2016. The ADB now estimates GDP growth in developing Asia at 5.8 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 6.0 percent (y/y) in 2016, down from previous GDP growth forecasts of 6.3 percent (y/y) for both years.

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  • Rising Unemployment in Indonesia as Coal Miners Cease Production

    In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.

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  • Komoditas: Dampak Larangan Ekspor Indonesia pada Harga Nikel Berumur Pendek

    Pada awal 2014 Indonesia memperkenalkan larangan ekspor yang telah lama direncanakan untuk biji mineral mentah dalam usaha untuk memperkuat perekonomian domestik dengan mengurangi ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditi mentah dan mengharuskan para penambang untuk mengolah biji-biji mentah di dalam negeri sebelum ekspor diizinkan. Sebagai suplier global penting untuk sejumlah biji mentah, peraturan Indonesia yang baru ini (ditetapkan oleh UU No. 4/2009 mengenai Pertambangan Batubara dan Mineral) memiliki dampak yang signifikan pada pasar dan harga global, salah satunya nikel.

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  • Indonesia Posts Trade Surplus in April but Concerns about Economy Rise

    Indonesia posted a higher-than-expected USD $454.4 million trade surplus in April 2015. Previously, analysts predicted to see an April trade surplus of around USD $120 million. However, the USD $454.4 million trade surplus was smaller than the (revised) USD $1 billion trade surplus recorded in March. Moreover, the April surplus (the country’s fifth consecutive trade surplus) is primarily caused by a large drop in imports, signalling that Indonesia’s economic performance remains sluggish at the start of Q2-2015.

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  • Bank Indonesia Press Release: BI Rate Maintained at 7.50%

    Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. This interest rate environment is considered to be in line with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to push the country’s inflation figure within its target of 4±1 percent for 2015 and 2016, as well as to control the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.

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  • Indonesia Policy Easing Could Mean More Gold Production in 2015

    When we look at activity in the precious metals markets over the last decade, one of the biggest developing trends has been the increase in both demand and production output from emerging Asian economies. For most of this period, Indonesia has been participating with these trends - especially on the production output front. As recently as 2009, Indonesia was responsible for 130 tons worth of gold production, as mining activity becomes more efficient and increased investment resources flow into the country.

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  • IMF Downgrades Global Economic Growth, China at 24-Year Low

    There was few good news from a global economic perspective as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply cut its outlook for global economic growth in the next two years. According to the IMF, global economic growth will only reach 3.5 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016 due to poorer prospects in China, Russia, the Eurozone, and Japan. Economic growth of China (the world’s second-largest economy) fell to a 24-year low at 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, below the government target of 7.5 percent (y/y).

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  • Indonesia Investment Summit 2015: Challenges & Pillars of the Economy

    In his presentation at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January, Standard Chartered Bank Senior Economist Fauzi Ichsan said that despite the challenges amid global uncertain times, there remains plenty room and opportunity for Indonesia to grow robustly on the long-term. In fact, by 2030 Ichsan believes that Indonesia will be among the world's top ten countries in terms of largest economies. For investors it is important to understand the challenges and key pillars of economic growth.

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