Despite several persistent challenges, geothermal energy remains a very interesting (and relatively environmentally friendly) power source for Indonesia. It is estimated that Indonesia is home to 40 percent of total global geothermal energy potential. But as impressive as that sounds, the country only uses a fraction of the potential. So, let’s take a look at recent developments in terms of geothermal power in Indonesia.

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On Thursday (05/09) Indonesia Investments released the August 2019 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of August 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo inaugurated the country's first wind turbine power plant in Sidrap (South Sulawesi) on Monday (02/07). This plant, which has a total capacity of 75 MW, consists of 30 wind turbine generators (which are the electrical machines used to generate the electricity).

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Discussions about the regulatory framework - including incentives - for the electric car industry in Indonesia are ongoing. Hence, stakeholders in the country's automotive industry are eagerly awaiting for results of government discussions and a roadmap before investing in manufacturing facilities for the launch of electric cars on the Indonesian market.

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The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said Indonesia managed to raise the nation's electrification ratio to 92.8 percent in the first half of 2017, hence achieving its target. The electrification ratio is the percentage of Indonesian households that are connected to the nation's electricity grid. The 92.8 percent ratio is a great improvement from 84 percent at the end of 2014, implying the Joko Widodo government performed well in this area. It targets for "near-universal" electricity access by 2020.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's headline inflation to ease in March 2017 as food prices are under control and can therefore offset the inflationary pressures that are caused by administered price adjustments (higher electricity tariffs). In February 2017 Indonesia's inflation rate accelerated to 3.81 percent (y/y) due to the ongoing impact of the higher electricity tariffs that were introduced by the government in January as well as a number of big floods that curtailed distribution channels across parts of Sumatra and Java.

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Indonesia's Deposit Insurance Agency (LPS) expects Indonesian inflation to reach 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2017, just within the central bank's 3 - 5 percent (y/y) inflation target. Didiek Madiyono, Executive Director of the LPS, said administered price adjustments will be the primary reason why the inflation rate of Indonesia will accelerate from 3.0 percent (y/y) in 2016 to 4.7 percent (y/y) in 2017. Administered prices are those prices that are set by the government. Usually when the government changes its subsidy policies, it needs to adjust certain prices.

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Most analysts and government officials see Indonesian inflation accelerating this year after a mild 2016 in which Indonesia's consumer price index rose by 3.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) only. Indonesian Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution said low inflation in 2016 was primarily caused by low administered price growth (in a couple of months administered prices in fact fell last year) as well as controlled food prices. He added, however, that food prices have been rather volatile and are expected to remain volatile in 2017.

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Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), Indonesia's state-owned electricity company, stated that a total of 158.64 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity was sold in Indonesia in the fist nine months of 2016, up 7.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) from 148.0 TWh of electricity sales in the same period of 2015. Benny Marbun, Head of PLN's Commercial Division, said rising electricity sales (as well as consumption) are the result of Indonesia's improving economy. In 2016 the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand 5.0 percent (y/y), from 4.8 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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Five high-profile consortia have expressed their interest to develop the USD $2 billion Java I steam & gas power plant in Muara Tawar, Bekasi (West Java). State-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), owner of this project and the company that is responsible for distributing electricity to the nation's 255 million people, said it is scheduled to tender this mega-project in June 2016. Indonesia's electrification ratio (the percentage of Indonesian households that are connected to the nation's electricity grid) is low at around 82 percent, implying there are still dozens of millions of Indonesians who lack access to electricity.

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Indonesia needs to prepare for higher electricity tariffs as the government and House of Representatives (DPR) agreed on cutting electricity subsidies for 450 VA and 900 VA households starting from 1 January 2016. Indonesian authorities only want to provide electricity subsidies to the 24.7 million poorest Indonesian households. However, currently around 45.4 million Indonesians have connections of 450 VA and 900 VA.

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The government of Indonesia unveiled the last installment of a series of three stimulus packages on Wednesday (07/10). The first two installments had been unveiled last month. In general, these stimulus packages aim to boost economic growth of Indonesia (which has slowed to a six-year low) and restore investors' confidence in the Indonesian rupiah and stocks. When markets believed that the Federal Reserve would soon raise its key interest rate, Indonesia was plagued by severe capital outflows pushing the rupiah to a 17-year low.

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Indonesia is not the easiest place to invest for foreign investors. This is reflected by the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 index in which Indonesia ranks 120th. In a business forum, held last week in Beijing, Chinese businessmen expressed a number of matters that blocked or seriously delayed their investments in Indonesia. For Indonesia (both domestic and foreign) investment realization, particularly in infrastructure, is important as investments is considered the main driver for the country’s economic growth in 2016.

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Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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The new Joko Widodo-led government aims to triple domestic geothermal power production within the next five years in an effort to meet ever-increasing power demand in the world’s fourth-most populous country and to shift to more environment friendly energy sources (rather than the over-reliance on fossil fuels such as oil and coal). Although Indonesia is estimated to contain the world's largest geothermal energy reserves, the country only uses about four percent of its geothermal capacity potential.

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President Joko Widodo’s unexpected visit to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/10) signals that the new president of Indonesia is serious about wiping out severe bureaucracy that causes time-consuming and difficult procedures to obtain permits, licenses and certificates in a bid to ease doing business in Indonesia for both foreign and domestic investors. Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is eager to tackle the country’s ‘red-tape’ problem as it curtails the pace of economic growth in Indonesia.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.

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Indonesian cement sales fell 0.4 percent (year-on-year) to 4.52 million tons in April 2014. The decline in cement sales was the result of the country’s legislative election that was held on 9 April 2014 as consumers bought few building materials during the campaign period. Head of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) Widodo Santoso stated that a number of large infrastructure projects are currently being tendered and are thus unable to boost domestic cement sales yet.

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In an attempt to attract investments in Indonesia's geothermal power sector, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to offer higher prices for geothermal-based electricity. Based on a recommendation from the World Bank, the new proposed geothermal-produced electricity price will range between 11.5 and 29 cents per KwH and will be effective until 2025. Currently, state-owned Perusahaan Listrik Negara pays between 10 and 18.5 cents per KwH to independent geothermal power producers (feed-in tariff).

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