Kebanyakan pedagang memprediksi bahwa produksi kopi Indonesia akan mendapat dampak negatif dari fenomena cuaca El Nino. Karena kekuatiran tentang hasil produksi robusta Indonesia musim 2016/2017, para pemanggang kopi dari Eropa dilaporkan bersiap-siap untuk meningkatkan impor dari Vietnam (penghasil biji robusta terbesar dunia), atau biji arabika berkualitas rendah dari Brazil (penghasil biji arabika terbesar di dunia).

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In an effort to boost the domestic consumer goods industry, the Indonesian government today (23/07) raised import tariffs for food, cars, clothes and many other consumer goods. This seemingly protectionist measure is aimed at reducing Indonesia’s dependence on imported goods as well as to boost the country’s general economic growth, which has slowed to a six-year low of 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, by supporting development of the local consumer goods industry.

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Pengiriman kopi Indonesia ke Eropa telah naik karena melemahnya rupiah dan panen kopi yang lebih banyak. Ekspor biji robusta dari Pulau Jawa bertumbuh 22,1% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015. Sementara itu, para pedagang Eropa memprediksi pengiriman yang besar akan berlanjut di bulan Juli. Rupiah Indonesia adalah mata uang negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk yang dicatat Bloomberg, melemah hampir 7,2% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) sejauh ini di tahun ini. Sisi positif dari mata uang yang lemah adalah ekspor negara ini menjadi lebih atraktif.

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Due to the prolonged dry season impacting on harvests, coffee production in Indonesia as well as coffee exports from the world’s third-largest coffee grower continued to decline. Based on the latest data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Indonesia’s coffee output plunged 23 percent to 540 million kilograms in the period April 2014 to March 2015 compared to the same period in the previous year, while Indonesia’s coffee exports declined to 336 million kilograms from 612 million kilograms over the same period.

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Semakin kuat dugaan bahwa fenomena cuaca El Nino akan berdampak pada Indonesia dalam beberapa bulan mendatang. Selama beberapa minggu terakhir ini muncul beberapa laporan mengenai cuaca kering yang ganjil dan memberikan dampak negatif pada panen dan komoditi agrikultur di sejumlah wilayah Asia Tenggara. Di Indonesia, cuaca kering pada umumnya terjadi dari bulan Mei sampai Agustus. Meskipun begitu, El Nino mungkin menyebabkan cuaca yang lebih hangat dan memperpanjang musim kering sampai September dan karenanya mempengaruhi produksi di puncak musim panen. Hal ini akan mengurangi hasil produksi agrikultur dan menyebabkan tekanan inflasi.

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In the past couple of weeks unusually dry weather in several parts of Southeast Asia has led to expectation that harvests of agricultural commodities in the region will be disappointing. More and more weather forecasters are convinced that the El Nino weather phenomenon (i.e. periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America that can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean) is to return this year causing droughts in the key agricultural-producing countries.

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Cabang Jawa Tengah dari Asosiasi Eksportir Kopi Indonesia (AEKI) mengatakan bahwa permintaan untuk kopi luwak, sejenis kopi khas Indonesia dan dikenal sebagai kopi termahal di dunia, telah menurun sejak tahun 2013. Kopi luwak adalah jenis kopi yang luar biasa karena dibuat dari biji-biji yang telah melalui sistem pencernaan luwak. Proses produksinya yang padat karya dan kelangkaannya di pasar global menyebabkan harga mahal kopi luwak.

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Pada 3 Mei 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, mencakup berita-berita yang paling penting di Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami di tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik berkaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti update pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, inflasi April, jalan tol Trans-Sumatra, investasi asing dan domestik, industri batubara, industri kopi, dan banyak lagi.

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Sebagai salah satu produsen biji kopi unggulan di dunia, Indonesia mungkin akan mendapat keuntungan dari perubahan iklim yang menyebabkan pergeseran produksi kopi dunia ke arah Timur selama beberapa dekade mendatang. Menurut laporan baru yang dilaksanakan International Center for Tropical Agriculture yang berbasis di Kolombia, suplai global biji arabika terancam karena kenaikan suhu 2 derajat Celsius dan juga perubahan pola hujan. Brazil, produsen kopi unggulan di dunia, akan sangat dipengaruhi oleh perubahan iklim.

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Indonesia’s coffee production may hit a record high in the 2015-2016 harvest season according to a Bloomberg survey. The survey suggests that Indonesian coffee output is to rise 18 percent (y/y) to 650,000 metric tons from 550,000 tons in the previous season. Reason for a good coffee harvest is favorable weather (rain) having boosted yields. Indonesia is the world’s third-largest producer and exporter of robusta. Also in other parts of the world coffee production is estimated to increase, hence potentially placing pressure on prices.

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Indonesia's Agriculture Ministry expects the nation's coffee production to reach 674,636 tons in 2018, up a modest 0.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) from Indonesia's coffee production in 2017 (668,677 tons). If the ministry's estimate is correct, then it would be the second straight year of meager coffee production growth. From 2016 (when Indonesia produced a total of 663,871 tons) to 2017, growth of coffee production reached 0.7 percent (y/y).

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The Consulate General of Indonesia in Guangzhou (China) said Indonesia's coffee exports to China reached USD $34.1 million in the January-September 2017 period, hence Indonesia now ranks second in terms of biggest coffee exporters to China. Vietnam ranks first, by a distance, with a coffee export value of USD $368.8 million in the same period.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Indonesia's coffee exports to fall in the 2016/2017 season due to rising domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia and low productivity. In the January-May 2016 period coffee exports from Indonesia fell 33.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 117,000 metric tons from 177,000 metric tons in the same period one year earlier. Indonesia's main coffee export destination markets are the USA, European Union (EU), and Japan.

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Coffee chain operator Starbucks, which is active in Indonesia via a partnership between Starbucks Coffee International and local Indonesian retail company Mitra Adiperkasa, launched its Starbucks Mobile App in Indonesia on Friday (18/11). Customers can now pay through this mobile app in more than 260 Starbucks stores across Southeast Asia's largest economy. A free Earl Grey Jelly Frappuccino is available to those who use the mobile app through November 2016.

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Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.

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Brazil has been in the spotlight as recent developments in this country influence global prices of coffee and sugar. There are currently two factors at play in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee and sugar supplier. First, ongoing drought has sharply pushed up the price of coffee. Secondly, the market is hopeful that reform-minded candidate Aécio Neves wins the Brazilian presidential election in the second voting round. This has given Brazil’s currency (real) a boost against the US dollar, and thus impacted on prices of coffee and sugar.

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Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is increasingly convinced that the world needs to prepare for a new El Niño cycle. According to the institution, the impact of this new cycle will be felt starting from July 2014 and may continue through the winter. Also the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US Climate Prediction Center stated that chances of a new El Niño cycle in 2014 are becoming higher, although it is too early to provide an indication of this year's strength of the weather phenomenon.

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Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.

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