The Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries (AEKI) expects coffee bean production in Indonesia to decline by about 11 percent to 650,000-670,000 tons in 2014, from 740,000 tons in the previous year. This decline is actually less severe than initially expected as weather conditions have improved in the main coffee bean growing regions on Sumatra. Meanwhile, output in 2015 is projected at 700,000 tons. Indonesia is currently the world’s third-largest coffee bean producer, after Brazil and Vietnam.

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On 19 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, foreign direct investments, an update on the coal mining sector, tax, the cement industry, palm oil, steel industry, and more.

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On 12 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such an outlook for GDP growth, the benchmark interest rate, the equity market, car sales, the coffee industry, the Giant Sea Wall Jakarta, and more.

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Due to ongoing drought in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee grower (particularly the Arabica coffee beans variety), coffee futures have reached the highest level in over two years. Usually the month of October is a month that brings rainfall to the Minas Gerais region, the most important coffee growing region in Brazil. This year, however, there has been no rainfall (yet) in October meaning that the coffee beans are unable to ripe. Moreover, meteorologists estimate that the current drought will continue for at least another week.

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On the 26th edition of the Specialty Coffee Association of America (SCAA), which is held  between 24 and 27 April 2014 in the Washington Convention Center (Seattle), Erna Knutsen - who introduced the term 'specialty coffee' in 1974 in an issue of the Tea & Coffee Trade Journal and is the founder of Knutsen Coffees Ltd - said that Mandailing coffee (a specialty coffee from Sumatra) is her favorite specialty coffee. Knutsen received the Life Achievement Award at the SCAA on the opening night of the event.

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Concerns about the arrival of a new El Niño weather phenomenon have increased in recent weeks. A possible new El Niño cycle has a major impact on the global commodities market. El Niño - a weather phenomenon that occurs once every five years on average - involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America which can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean. Its impact on harvests and the world varies; sometimes passing almost unnoticeable (such as in 2010) but it can also be felt worldwide.

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So far, the year 2014 is marked by adjustments in forecasts for commodities demand and prices on the global market. The primary example is coffee. Due to severe drought in Brazil, weak coffee production is expected to result in a shortage of coffee on the international market. Uncertainty about the extent of the shortage has pushed coffee prices up by about 65 percent since the end of 2013. Meanwhile, Brazil's reduced arabica output cannot be replaced by Indonesia's robusta coffee due to high rainfall in the archipelago.

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Sentiments on the global coffee market have turned around completely in 2014 as severe drought in Brazil in combination with high rainfall in Indonesia are expected to result in weak harvests, thereby reducing global coffee production and stockpiles, causing a significant price increase since mid January 2014. Both countries are vital for global coffee production. Brazil accounts for about half of the world's total arabica production, while Indonesia is a significant robusta-type producer.

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Prices of certain food commodities increased significantly due to a combination of political tensions in Ukraine, weak harvests and a possible new El Niño cycle (periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America that can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean). El Niño is a well known weather phenomenon that occurs once every five years on average. However, its impact on the weather, harvests and the world varies; it can pass almost unnoticeable (such as in 2010) but it can also be felt worldwide.

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Prices of coffee have surged 24 percent in 2014 as Brazil experienced the warmest January ever and the least rainfall in 20 years. Being a major arabica bean producer, Brazil's weather conditions particularly influence the arabica coffee price. The arabica coffee price has jumped 26 percent in seven trading sessions, the highest level since July 2000. Meanwhile, weather forecasts do not seem to indicate the arrival of a sufficient amount of rainfall in the remainder of February and March before the dry season kicks in in April.

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Indonesia's Agriculture Ministry expects the nation's coffee production to reach 674,636 tons in 2018, up a modest 0.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) from Indonesia's coffee production in 2017 (668,677 tons). If the ministry's estimate is correct, then it would be the second straight year of meager coffee production growth. From 2016 (when Indonesia produced a total of 663,871 tons) to 2017, growth of coffee production reached 0.7 percent (y/y).

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The Consulate General of Indonesia in Guangzhou (China) said Indonesia's coffee exports to China reached USD $34.1 million in the January-September 2017 period, hence Indonesia now ranks second in terms of biggest coffee exporters to China. Vietnam ranks first, by a distance, with a coffee export value of USD $368.8 million in the same period.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Indonesia's coffee exports to fall in the 2016/2017 season due to rising domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia and low productivity. In the January-May 2016 period coffee exports from Indonesia fell 33.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 117,000 metric tons from 177,000 metric tons in the same period one year earlier. Indonesia's main coffee export destination markets are the USA, European Union (EU), and Japan.

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Coffee chain operator Starbucks, which is active in Indonesia via a partnership between Starbucks Coffee International and local Indonesian retail company Mitra Adiperkasa, launched its Starbucks Mobile App in Indonesia on Friday (18/11). Customers can now pay through this mobile app in more than 260 Starbucks stores across Southeast Asia's largest economy. A free Earl Grey Jelly Frappuccino is available to those who use the mobile app through November 2016.

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Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.

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Brazil has been in the spotlight as recent developments in this country influence global prices of coffee and sugar. There are currently two factors at play in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee and sugar supplier. First, ongoing drought has sharply pushed up the price of coffee. Secondly, the market is hopeful that reform-minded candidate Aécio Neves wins the Brazilian presidential election in the second voting round. This has given Brazil’s currency (real) a boost against the US dollar, and thus impacted on prices of coffee and sugar.

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Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is increasingly convinced that the world needs to prepare for a new El Niño cycle. According to the institution, the impact of this new cycle will be felt starting from July 2014 and may continue through the winter. Also the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US Climate Prediction Center stated that chances of a new El Niño cycle in 2014 are becoming higher, although it is too early to provide an indication of this year's strength of the weather phenomenon.

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Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.

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