Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) akhirnya memutuskan untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember (15-16 Desember) karena perbaikan yang signifikan pada kondisi pasar tenaga kerja AS (tingkat pengangguran di AS telah jatuh menjadi 5%) dan inflasi AS diproyeksikan untuk mencapai target the Fed sebesar 2% pada jangka waktu menengah. Setelah pengumuman ini saham AS melonjak. Pasar negara-negara berkembang tidak mengalami capital outflows besar-besaran setelah kenaikan ini. Indeks-indeks saham di Asia menguat tajam pada hari Kamis pagi (17/12).

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Bursa saham di Asia mengalami cuaca buruk karena para investor menarik dana dari pasar negara-negara berkembang. Pada pukul 11:25 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia telah jatuh 1,11% menjadi 4.344,69 poin, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,54% menjadi Rp 14.068 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para investor mencari aset yang (lebih) aman haven karena Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate (untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir satu dekade) pada pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) berikutnya (dijadwalkan pada 15-16 Desember).

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On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again flirting with the IDR 13,900 per US dollar level after the central bank announced on Monday (07/12) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell further in November. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated by 0.19 percent to IDR 13,887 per US dollar at 15:30 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (08/12). Other factors that put pressure on the rupiah are the low oil price (giving rise to a strong US dollar), weak trade data from China, and the looming US interest rate hike.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday morning (30/11). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 0.84 percent to 4,522.09 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 13,830 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 11:15 am local Jakarta time. Negative sentiments still stem from China and the looming Fed Fund Rate hike in December, while there are few to none domestic sentiments that can support the nation's assets.

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Due to heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike in December, the US dollar was pushed to a seven-month high today. As a consequence, the rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,722 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Moreover, the strong US dollar impacted negatively on commodity prices. Many commodity prices, including oil, copper and nickel plunged severely on today's trading day. For key commodity producers, which include Indonesia, falling commodity prices put pressure on assets.

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Aset-aset Indonesia ditutup dengan kuat pada hari Jumat (20/11). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah sama-sama menguat secara signifikan karena meningkatnya kejelasan mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS), sementara Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) mengumumkan bahwa Pemerintah RRT akan mengimplementasikan lebih banyak usaha untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, karenanya menguatkan nilai tukar yuan (mendukung penguatan nilai mata uang di negara-negara berkembang di Asia). IHSG naik 0,94% menjadi 4.561,33 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 1,10% menjadi Rp 13.623 per dollar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Di seluruh dunia, indeks-indeks saham jatuh karena kekuatiran berkepanjangan mengenai rendahnya harga komoditi (terutama karena harga minyak mentah menurun ke level terendah selama 2 bulan terakhir dan mungkin mulai kembali mendekati level 40 dollar AS), kekuatiran mengenai perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), sementara pasar juga bersiap-siap untuk kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember (sebuah tindakan yang akan memicu capital outflows dari aset-aset negara berkembang yang lebih berisiko). Bulan ini pasar berada di bawah tekanan jual yang besar setelah mengalami reli di bulan Oktober.

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Saham-saham Asia menghadapi tekanan pada hari Jumat (13/11) karena rendahnya harga minyak dan meningkatnya perkiraan bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin di bulan Desember. Saham-saham sumberdaya alam menarik turun indeks-indeks saham di Australia, Hong Kong dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) lebih dari 1%. Kendati begitu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), melawan tren di Asia, telah naik 0,51% menjadi 4.485,12 poin pada pukul 10:20 WIB kendati indeks-indeks Asia yang ada di zona merah. Sementara itu, dollar AS menguat terhadap mata uang Asia namun tidak setajam perkiraan sebelumnya.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its downward trend on Wednesday (18/12). Both Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) and Bloomberg Dollar Index indicated a depreciating rupiah against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR was set at IDR 12,151 per US dollar, a 0.39 percent fall from yesterday (17/12), while in the Bloomberg Dollar Index the currency depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,168 per US dollar at 16:55 in the afternoon, local Jakarta time.

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Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 17-18 December 2013, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate is continuing its depreciating trend as the economies of the USA and Japan, particularly the capital markets, are improving and causes the US dollar and Yen to appreciate against other currencies. Both currencies are considered safe havens amid the current volatile world economy. One of the victims is the rupiah, which fell to IDR 12,126 per US dollar at 12.30 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Throughout the morning, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate showed volatile movement on Tuesday (10/12). In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency was up 0.45 percent to IDR 11,920 per US dollar at 16:20:51 local Jakarta time. The rupiah's performance is volatile because negative sentiments are brought on by improving economic data from the USA, causing a strengthening US dollar, while positive market sentiments are brought on by the new fiscal policies that were announced by the Indonesian government.

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After appreciating on Monday morning (09/12), the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate started to weaken against the US dollar in the afternoon. At 15:10:29 local Jakarta time, the rupiah stood at IDR 11,970 per US dollar in the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a 0.05 percent depreciation from the start of the day. The rupiah exchange rate is fluctuating due to positive sentiments caused by Indonesia's October trade surplus as well as China's low inflation and negative sentiments brought on by the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program.

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In the morning of Thursday (05/12), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated beyond the psychological level of IDR 12,000 per US dollar. In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah fell 0.2 percent to IDR 12,011 as of 09:19:49. The main factor behind this decline is market participants' concerns about the end of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. It is increasingly speculated that the winding down of this program will start sooner than expected.

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