Today, Bank Indonesia will start its February two-day policy meeting. Markets are eagerly awaiting whether the central bank of Indonesia will indeed cut its key interest rate (BI rate) again. Last month, it had cut the BI rate by 0.25 percent to 7.25 percent as inflation, the current account deficit and the rupiah rate were all under control. Although the rate cut was welcomed by the business community it was considered not enough to push borrowing costs lower in Southeast Asia's largest economy hence unable to boost economic activity significantly.

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The Indonesian rupiah is appreciating markedly on Wednesday (10/02). By 12:30 pm local Jakarta time, Indonesia's currency had appreciated 1.62 percent to IDR 13,391 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a three-month high. Today, most emerging currencies in Asia are appreciating against the US dollar ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony in US Congress this week. Other factors that support strong rupiah appreciation are speculation that Indonesia will attract investors due to accelerating domestic economic growth and the move of Japan's central bank to introduce negative interest rates.

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The Indonesian rupiah has been under pressure so far today (03/02) on concern that falling oil prices drag down other commodity prices, hence negatively affecting Indonesia's export performance. Yesterday, a global selloff in stocks occurred as oil prices were again touching the USD $30 per barrel mark. Emerging market currencies too are under pressure. The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.79 percent to IDR 13,799 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 12:55 pm local Jakarta time.

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Asian stocks were mixed on Monday (01/02). However, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.21 percent to 4,624.63 points after a volatile trading day (one hour before trading closed, the index was down more than one percent). Furthermore, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated markedly, while there occurred inflows into bonds. It seems that Japan's surprise move to introduce negative interest rates managed to offset the negative impact of weak manufacturing activity in China and falling crude oil prices.

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Berlawan dengan harapan, saham Indonesia dan rupiah memiliki awal yang lemah di tahun yang baru. Pada hari Senin (4/1) Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,46% menjadi 4.525,92 poin, sementara rupiah terdepresiasi 0,82% menjadi Rp 13.943 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Kinerja saham Indonesia ini sejalan dengan kinerja saham di seluruh dunia. Perdagangan saham Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) bahkan dihentikan dua kali karena indeksnya merosot. Apa yang terjadi hari ini?

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Rupiah Indonesia meneruskan penguatan yang luar biasa pada hari Selasa (22/12). Mata uang ini naik 0,98% menjadi Rp 13.672 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada pukul 11:10 Waktu Indonesia Barat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Rupiah telah pulih dari level rendahnya pada Rp 14.123 per dollar AS pada hari Senin 14 Desember menjadi Rp 13.672 per dollar AS, naik 3,2% dalam waktu sekitar satu minggu. Ada beberapa hal yang menjelaskan kinerja yang luar biasa ini.

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Rupiah Indonesia menguat secara signifikan terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (21/12) kendati ada prediksi bahwa rupiah akan menjadi mata uang dengan performa terburuk di Asia pada tahun 2016 akibat capital outflows (karena suku bunga AS direncanakan akan semakin dinaikkan pada tahun 2016), cadangan devisa Indonesia yang menurun, dan harga-harga komoditi yang terus-menerus rendah. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah menguat 1,13% menjadi Rp 13.760 per dollar AS pada pukul 14:20 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Senin (21/12).

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Indeks-indeks saham di Asia Tenggara jatuh pada hari Jumat (18/12), dipimpin oleh indeks-indeks acuan di Thailand dan Indonesia. Pasar-pasar Asia ini mengikuti koreksi global yang terjadi setelah investor mempertimbangkan dampak yang mungkin terjadi dari kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Saham-saham di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa turun pada hari Kamis dan hari Jumat, sementara harga minyak dan komoditi-komoditi lainnya terus menurun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,92 persen menjadi 4,468.65 poin.

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Setelah reli kuat pada hari Kamis (merespon positif terhadap pengumuman Federal Reserve untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate), aset-aset Indonesia melemah pada hari Jumat (18/12) sementara kebanyakan pasar Asia turun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,20% menjadi 4.501,34 poin pada pukul 09:45 WIB, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 14.040 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Karena itu, saham-saham Indonesia mengikuti contoh saham-saham Amerika Serikat (AS) yang jatuh semalam.

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Saham dan rupiah Indonesia merespon sangat positif terhadap keputusan Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate yang menjadi acuan sebesar 25 basis poin pada Rabu (16/12). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) melonjak 1,62% menjadi 4.555,96 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 0,44% menjadi Rp 14.009 per dollar AS. Tidak hanya saham di Indonesia tetapi saham global juga sangat naik pada akhir dari ketidakpastian yang berkelanjutan mengenai waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated slightly against the US dollar on Monday (18/08). At the end of the trading day the rupiah had weakened 0.07 percent to IDR 11,687 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. This performance was in line with the performance of most other emerging Asian currencies as market participants are awaiting the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium which may provide new information about US short-term interest rates and other policy strategies.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced two important matters on Thursday (14/08). Firstly, the institution decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.75 percent, and the lending facility rate at 7.50 percent. Secondly, it announced that Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $9.1 billion, or, 4.27 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2014, a widening that is larger than initially forecast.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 11,758 per US dollar on Monday (04/08) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index by 15:40 pm local Jakarta time. Although the rupiah had appreciated to a stronger level (IDR 11,713) earlier on Monday, the currency slightly rebounded after Statistics Indonesia announced that the country posted a USD $300 million trade deficit in June 2014, thereby placing more pressure on the nation’s current account balance.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks posted a good performance on Monday (21/07). Main reason for this positive performance is increased speculation that presidential hopeful Joko Widodo has won the election. Based on information originating from the General Elections Commission (KPU), Widodo has won the election by a safe margin of five percentage points. On Tuesday 22 July 2014, the KPU will officially release the result. However, rival Prabowo Subianto will probably challenge the result.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.33 percent to IDR 11,698 per US dollar on Wednesday (16/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Although at the start of the trading day the rupiah weakened due to commentary of Federal Reserve Head Janet Yellen who said that US interest rates may increase sooner than expected provided that the US job market improves faster than anticipated, at the end of the trading day Indonesia's currency strengthened on improved economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy.

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Most Asian stock indices were up on Tuesday (15/07) influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous day. Also for investors on Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) this meant an opportunity to engage in stock trading even though the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably and political uncertainties remain (as the winner of the Indonesian presidential election remains a question mark). In fact, investors were confused to see the Merah Putih coalition.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.67 percent to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Monday (14/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the benchmark stock exchange of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 0.23 percent to 5,021.06 points. The main reason for weakening markets in Indonesia is investors’ wait & see attitude ahead of the official result of Indonesia’s presidential election. On 22 July 2014, the General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the winner of the election.

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On Tuesday (08/07), both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks continued where they left off yesterday. Supported by optimistic market participants speculating on a Joko Widodo victory in Wednesday’s presidential election, the rupiah appreciated 0.74 percent to IDR 11,626 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.72 percent to 5,024.71 points, surpassing the psychological level at 5,000 and approaching its record high level at 5,215 (21 March 2013).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated sharply on Monday (07/07) due to the strong performance of presidential candidate Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in the presidential debate with rival candidate Prabowo Subianto last Saturday evening. Indonesian media declared Jokowi the winner of the debate because of his confident, eloquent and well-structured performance. This debate, in which the candidates were joined by their running mates, was the fifth and final one ahead of the presidential election on Wednesday 9 July.

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Emerging currencies in Asia, led by the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, strengthened in the past week on positive economic data from the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. Companies in the US added more jobs than expected in June 2014, while manufacturing in China grew at its fastest pace in 2014. Improving economies of the US and China are important for Asian countries as it boosts Asian exports. Moreover, Indonesian inflation and trade data contributed to positive market sentiments.

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