Indonesian President Joko Widodo witnessed the inauguration of the first newly built container terminal, part of the New Priok Port, an extension of Indonesia's busiest port (Tanjung Priok) in North Jakarta, on Tuesday (13/09). At this occasion Widodo urged the developers of the New Priok Port to speed up construction of the port so that phase one can be completed by 2019. The New Priok Port, consisting of three phases, will relieve the overloaded systems at the existing Tanjung Priok port and bring Indonesia's port facilities on par with other world-class ports.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (15/08) that the trade balance of Indonesia showed a surplus of USD $598 million in July 2016, down from a USD $879.2 million surplus in the preceding month and considerably below analyst forecasts. Although Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, booked a USD $4.2 billion trade surplus in the first seven months of 2016, concern about Indonesia's weakening exports and imports persist. Faster falling imports (compared to exports) explains the trade surplus.

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Indonesia's Industry Ministry is eager to intensify cooperation with Switzerland. On Tuesday (02/08) Indonesian Industry Minister Airlangga Hartanto stated that the European nation selected Indonesia as a key priority country in terms of economic cooperation and partnerships in the industry sector. Indonesia is ranked fourth in terms of priority investment destinations in Asia for Switzerland's foreign direct investment (FDI). Both nations have had positive diplomatic relations that date back to 1952.

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Indonesia's latest trade data beat forecasts by quite a distance. According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade balance recorded a monthly surplus of USD $900.2 million in June 2016. Previously, median forecasts expected a USD $300 million surplus. Meanwhile, the nation's trade surplus more than doubled in June from the monthly surplus in the preceding month, supported by strong exports of electronics, auto parts, finished garments, and rubber products. Despite this positive result, there remain some concerns.

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Today (15/06) Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia's May trade balance showed a surplus of USD $375.6 million, below analyst estimates (at USD $680 million) and below the (revised) USD $660 million trade surplus recorded in the preceding month. Although having a trade surplus is good, there remain concerns about Indonesia's falling exports and imports as these declines are signs of weakening domestic and global economic activity.

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The central government of Indonesia has officially declared the Patimban Seaport project in Subang (West Java) a national strategic project through Presidential Decree No. 47/2016, signed by Indonesian President Joko Widodo. This declaration implies that the project is regarded a priority project that benefits the economy and society as a whole. The priority status further means that all ministers, government agencies and governors need to support the development of the project.

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State-owned Pelindo II, the company that is involved in port services across ten Indonesian provinces, plans to conduct another test related to the New Priok Port on 2 July 2016. Full commercial operations are scheduled to start on 15 July 2016. The New Priok Port is one of the large government infrastructure projects involving the construction of a new port (an extension of the Tanjung Priok) in North Jakarta in order to tackle Indonesia's severe logistics trouble, while bringing Indonesia's port facilities on par with other world-class ports such as Singapore.

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Last year Indonesian President Joko Widodo emphasized the importance for Indonesia to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as this free trade deal - one of the world's most ambitious trade deals, covering an area that contributes about 40 percent to total global trade - will make the Indonesian economy more efficient and its exports more competitive (while also expanding the nation's export base). However, there also exist concerns about a possible participation of Indonesia in this free trade deal. One of the concerns involves Indonesia's automotive industry.

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Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia booked a USD $670 million trade surplus in April 2016, primarily caused by a bigger-than-expected decline in imports. Most analysts expected to see a monthly trade surplus around USD $200 million last month. In the first four months of 2016, Indonesia's trade balance has now accumulated into a USD $2.3 billion trade surplus. Although the surplus is positive, there remain deep concerns about the persistently falling import and export figures.

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In terms of trade, imports into Indonesia in Q1-2016 were dominated by food and beverage products. In fact, Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) detected a staggering jump in food and beverage imports: imports of primary food and beverage items rose 32 percent (y/y) to USD $364 million in Q1-2016, while imports of processed food items surged 75 percent (y/y) to USD $886 million over the same period. This major jump cannot be explained by a massive increase in Indonesians' purchasing power or a sudden rapidly expanding (as well as hungry) population.

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On Thursday 12 June 2014 it was decided at the central bank’s Board of Governors’ Meeting to maintain the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This decision is consistent with ongoing efforts to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce Indonesia’s current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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Today (02/06), Statistics Indonesia released various important economic data that provide more insight into the state of the Indonesian economy. Two of these indicators - inflation and trade - are discussed in this column. Head of Statistics Indonesia Suryamin announced that inflation in May 2014 rose by 0.16 percent (slightly higher than previously expected), while the April 2014 trade balance of Indonesia recorded a USD $1.96 billion deficit. These data were not well received by the market, evidenced by sharp rupiah depreciation.

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The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).

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Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 11,581 per US dollar on Wednesday based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency is now at its strongest level since 25 November 2013 as it regained trust of international investors. In 2013, the rupiah weakened sharply after speculation emerged that the Federal Reserve would scale back its quantitative easing program. In combination with the country's record high current account deficit and high inflation it led to large capital outflows from Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the USD $430 million trade deficit that was recorded in January 2014 is a normal result taking into account the implementation of the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals (which reduces exports of materials such as copper and nickel) and seasonal trends as exports are always lower in January than in December due the end of winter peak demand for raw materials and ongoing contractual negotiations at the beginning of each year.

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The rate of Indonesian inflation eased in February 2014. Inflation decelerated in February 2014 to 0.26 percent (month-to-month) or 7.75 percent (year-on-year), down from the previous month at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) respectively. The drop in the inflation rate is attributable to central and local government policy taken to minimize the second-round effects of recent natural disasters, thereby bringing the inflation of volatile foods in the reporting month to just 0.32 percent (mtm) or 9.85 percent (yoy).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated (0.15 percent) to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Thursday (27/02), 15:00 local Jakarta time, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo stated yesterday to expect the currency to stabilize near current levels in line with its economic fundamentals ahead of looming further Federal Reserve tapering. Analysts estimate that Indonesia's trade balance might deteriorate in January 2014 as the impact of the mineral-ore export ban kicks in.

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The current account deficit of Indonesia is expected to ease further in the first quarter of 2014 due to a possible slowdown of imports according to Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro. This slowdown is estimated to be caused by the implementation of Indonesia's higher income tax on the import of durable consumer goods, effective from January 2014. However, the deficit will not ease markedly from the USD $4 billion deficit (equivalent to 1.98 percent of the country's gross domestic product) recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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