On 17 January 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the trade balance, property sector, the benchmark interest rate, the ASEAN Economic community, but also the recent terrorist attacks in Jakarta, and more.

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Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $230 million in December 2015 as imports (USD $12.12 billion) exceeded exports (USD $11.89 billion), the second monthly trade deficit in 2015. Overall, the country's trade balance shows a surplus of USD $7.51 billion in 2015, significantly improving from the USD $2.2 billion trade deficit in the preceding year. But despite posting a good trade surplus in full-year 2015, a closer look at the data still reveals weak global and domestic conditions.

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Gejolak ekonomi yang telah mendorong pertumbuhan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) ke level terendah dalam 25 tahun terakhir telah berdampak langsung pada Indonesia karena RRT adalah mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Kekuatiran akan perlambatan ekonomi RRT (dan dampak perlambatan ini pada ekonomi dunia) bertahan pada tahun 2016 karena Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) menurun selama 10 bulan berturut-turut di Desember 2015 (di 48,2), sedangkan pembacaan jasa layanan untuk bulan Desember turun ke level terendah dalam 17 bulan terakhir (50,2).

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Indonesia mencatat defisit perdagangan yang tak terduga sebesar 346,4 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada November 2015 menurut data terbaru dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) yang dirilis pada Selasa (15/12). Ini adalah defisit perdagangan bulanan pertama di Indonesia di tahun 2015 karena ekspor turun lebih cepat - sedangkan impor menurun lebih lambat - dari yang diperkirakan. Ekspor Indonesia turun 17,6% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 11,16 miliar dollar AS pada bulan November, sedangkan impor menurun 18,0% (y/y) menjadi 11,51 miliar dollar AS. Defisit terjadi baik di saldo sektor minyak & gas (migas) maupun non-migas.

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China's yuan (also known as renminbi) was included in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) - with a weightage average of 10.91 percent - on Tuesday (01/12), a decision that will take effect on 1 October 2016. Other currencies in the SDR are the US dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen. This move implies that the currency of the world's second-largest economy is increasingly regarded as a global financial instrument and will be increasingly used in transactions across the globe and widely traded on foreign exchange markets.

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Pada 22 November 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami pada tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik berkaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti update pada neraca perdagangan Indonesia, tingkat suku bunga, pembangunan infrastruktur, obligasi global, penawaran saham perdana di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), perbankan syariah, dan banyak lagi.

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For the eleventh consecutive month Indonesia posted a trade surplus. With exports reaching a total of USD $12.08 billion, while imports were USD $11.07 billion, the country posted a USD $1.01 billion trade surplus in October, the country's statistics agency (BPS) stated on Monday (16/11). The surplus was larger than expected due to a sharp drop in imports. Although the trade surplus is good news as it supports the value of the rupiah and helps to curtail the country's current account balance, there remain concerns about rapidly plunging exports and imports.

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US-based bond credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said it would be credit-positive for Indonesia's sovereign credit rating to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal as participation would mitigate the negative effects of sluggish commodity prices on Indonesia's export performance. Through the TPP, which is one of the world's most ambitious trade deals covering an area that accounts for about 40 percent of world trade, Indonesia will expand its export base, Moody's wrote in a recent report.

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The Indonesian rupiah is not having a good day as it was down 1.05 percent to IDR 13,659 per US dollar by 10:45 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index) on Tuesday (20/10), weakening the most in a week. In line with most other emerging market currencies in Asia, the rupiah is falling presumably on concern about weak economic growth in China. Yesterday, Chinese authorities announced the world's second-largest economy expanded 6.9 percent (y/y) in Q3-2015. This result is slightly better than estimates but does also constitute a six-year low, hence negatively affected exports of its trading partners.

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On 18 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government's fourth stimulus package, Indonesia's trade balance, Bank Indonesia's interest rate regime, possible defaults of Indonesian companies, commodity updates, and more.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the January 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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On Wednesday (05/02), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the economy of Indonesia expanded 5.78 percent in 2013. This result implies that in 2013 Indonesia experienced the slowest pace of GDP growth since its 4.63 percentage growth in 2009. However, this slowing growth was basically self-inflicted as both the Indonesian government and central bank (Bank Indonesia) used various monetary and fiscal policies to curb economic expansion in order to tackle several financial issues.

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In the last month of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance posted a surplus of USD $1.52 billion, almost twice as high as economists had previously predicted. The December surplus implied Indonesia's third consecutive monthly trade surplus and fifth monthly trade surplus in full year 2013. However, considering the whole year, the trade balance still posted a deficit of USD $4.06 billion in 2013 as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was again affected by profit taking after market participants saw falling indices on Wall Street and in Europe at the end of last week due to various negative sentiments including the Federal Reserve's tapering issue, slowing Chinese manufacturing and the release of several global companies' financial reports that were below expectation. Moreover, the rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate while Asian indices were down on Monday (03/02).

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Despite the release of positive macroeconomic data on Monday (03/02), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,240 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January and put pressure on stocks and currencies in emerging markets. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's further reduction of its quantitative easing program (to USD $65 billion per month) continues to strengthen the US dollar at the expense of emerging currencies.

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This year, legislative and presidential elections will be held in Indonesia. Obviously, there is a strong relationship between the politics and economics of a country. Businessmen from various sectors of Indonesia's economy have already been voicing their views. As the umbrella organization of the Indonesian business chambers and associations, Kadin Indonesia recently shared its views about the elections as well. The institute believes that the 2014 elections will run smoothly because Indonesia's democracy has matured.

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According to Fauzi Ichsan, Managing Director at Bank Standard Chartered Indonesia, there is a possibility that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 7.50 percent to 8 percent at the next Board of Governor's Meeting as the country's current account deficit has not improved markedly yet. The deficit stood at about 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2013. Bank Indonesia intends to lower the deficit to a sustainable level of below 3 percent in 2014.

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According to Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri, the country's trade deficit will continue between 2014 and 2016 (although expecting to show an easing trend) but will turn into a surplus from 2017 onwards. One of the most influential factors that will impact on the trade balance is Indonesia's raw ore export ban, in effect as of Sunday 12 January 2014. In the short term, this ban will limit Indonesia's exports but in the long term, from 2017 onward, it will lead to high added-value exports.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the December 2013 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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