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Most stocks in Asia were in the red zone on Wednesday morning (21/06) as oil entered bear territory after prices continued to tumble (with Brent at seven-month lows) due to rising oil output in Libya and Nigeria. Meanwhile, Chinese shares seem to enjoy limited support only from the decision of US index provider MSCI to add China's mainland stocks to one of its key benchmarks.
The coal price is expected to rise in the remainder of this year as China seems eager to limit domestic coal output, while global coal demand is predicted to rise in the second half of 2017. After a steep decline in May, coal prices have been recovering in June. So far this month, coal prices rallied around 10 percent to slightly above USD $80 per ton (Newcastle index, July contracts).
Indonesia is known as the world's largest archipelago. However, local authorities do not exactly know how many islands Indonesia actually has. Back in 1996 the central government made a rough estimate of 17,500. However, rising concerns about illegal fishery and radical Islam as well as growth of protectionism (the battle for natural resources) has made the Indonesian government eager to turn the rough estimate into precise knowledge. However, this will not be an easy undertaking.
Despite seeing a supply surplus in Asia, coal prices are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future supported by expectations of Chinese intervention into domestic coal production. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal and therefore the main determinant of the coal price. On Friday (19/05), the Newcastle coal index (May 2017 contracts) rose 0.27 percent to USD $74.25 per ton.
Players in Indonesia's footwear industry are concerned about the sharp growth of imports of footwear (shoe) products into Indonesia, by far outpacing growth of footwear exports. Data released by the Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) show footwear imports into Indonesia rose 17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, while over the past two years exports of footwear products were recorded in the range of 3 - 4 percent (y/y).
Indonesian stocks continue to expand into record high territory. On Wednesday (05/04) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index gained 0.45 percent to close at 5,676.98 points, a fresh new record high position. Indonesia's main stock index is currently "hot" due to several internal and external factors. However, a new report released by Morgan Stanley may make investors a bit cautious as valuations for Indonesian stocks have been rising sharply recently.
Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), is concerned about the zero percent import duty policy (applied per 2018) for Chinese ceramics that are shipped into Indonesia. This policy could lead to massive ceramic imports from China and encourage the deindustrialization in Indonesia's ceramic sector.
Indonesia's exports of footwear to the United States (USA) are expected to reach the value of USD $1.5 billion in 2017, up 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) from USD $1.34 billion last year. This increase is expected to come on the back of US President Donald Trump's eagerness to limit imports from China by introducing higher tariffs. This policy should now open up opportunities for Indonesian footwear exporters.
After Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech late last week, markets are increasingly expecting to see a US interest rate hike this month. In her speech in Chicago on Friday (03/03), Yellen said the Fed will adjust its monetary policy (specifically the fed funds rate) in case US employment and inflation continue to evolve in line with the Fed's expectations. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017 and therefore it is believed only disastrous US labor market data can block an interest rate hike this month.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
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During most of the day, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) moved in the green zone, seemingly unaffected by falling indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (26/03). However, just before the trading day closed market participants engaged in profit taking causing the 0.11 percent decline of the IHSG to 4,723.06 points. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for this occurrence. Perhaps because Asian indices turned mixed after China's benchmark index fell as China's latest industrial profit growth data were weak.
On Wednesday (26/03), most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar as the region's shares hit a two-week high on upbeat US economic data in combination with reduced concern over the crisis in Crimea (Ukraine). However, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was one of the exceptions to this trend on today's trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,412 at 16:15 local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recovered some of its earlier losses.
Despite technical indicators suggesting further upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), a positive performance of the index was blocked by external factors. Several Asian stock indices were down responding to Markit's lower US manufacturing PMI (slipping to 55.5 from 57.1 in February 2014). Similarly, China and the Eurozone's manufacturing data showed slowing growth. Continued appreciation of the rupiah exchange rate managed to limit the decline of the IHSG.
At the start of the new week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was able to continue to climb, supported by positive Asian indices. Today, investors took advantage of discounted stocks in Asia as markets had fallen after the Federal Reserve's announcement last week that the quantitative easing program would be wound down further as well as a possible US interest rate hike in 2015 and 2016. However, the IHSG was also vulnerable to profit taking. Therefore, today's gain was limited.
Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.
Although we advise investors to remain careful as any negative sentiment will be used as a valid reason for profit taking, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was up from the start of the trading day on Tuesday (11/03). The start of dividend payouts helped to offset concerns about possible interest rate hikes (in emerging markets) as well as the impact of weak indices on Wall Street and Europe on Monday (10/03). Asian stock indices, however, were positive on Tuesday, thus providing support for the IHSG.
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa said that the rupiah exchange rate's new equilibrium is at IDR 11,000 per US dollar. As the economic fundamentals of Indonesia's economy have improved in recent months - evidenced by the easing current account deficit and inflation - the rupiah has shown a strong performance, appreciating around six percent against the US dollar in 2014 (year to date). In fact, Rajasa warned that the rupiah should not strengthen too much as this impacts negatively on Indonesia's trade balance.
Although immediately plunging 0.33 percent to IDR 11,478 per US dollar after its opening on Monday (10/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.57 percent to IDR 11,375 per US dollar by 14:00 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah's performance today is in sharp contrast with other Asian currencies. As US nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected and Chinese exports fell sharply (18.1 percent year-on-year) in February 2014, the US dollar appreciated against most Asian currencies.
Rising indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (04/03) impacted positively on Asian indices the following day, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG). As the political tensions in Ukraine have somewhat eased since Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not seeking to escalate the conflict, investors were again eager to invest in emerging market stocks; foreign investors were net buyers. Today's performance of the IHSG left a gap at 4,602-4,621 points.
Yesterday (26/02) strengthening Asian stock indices were unable to push the benchmark index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index/IHSG) into the green zone. Today (Thursday 27 February), we witnessed the contrary: the IHSG climbed 0.80 percent to 4,568.94 points, while Asian indices were mixed. Indices in China, the Sensex and the Nikkei fell, while others rose. Those that rose responded positively toward the release of higher sales of new US single-family homes. However, the conflict in the Ukraine limited their growth.
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