In rupiah terms, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia in the first quarter of 2016 grew 17.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 96.1 trillion according to the latest data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). Meanwhile, in US dollar terms FDI in Q1-2016 rose 4.5 percent (y/y) to USD $6.9 billion (using the IDR 13,900 per USD exchange rate set in the 2016 state budget). Due to the volatile rupiah rate, Indonesia's FDI always tends to be somewhat distorted when comparing these data in different currencies or in different time intervals.

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Asian stocks did not have a good start of the week. Most Asian stocks fell on Monday (25/04) in line with retreating oil prices, concerns that the US Federal Reserve may be hinting at further monetary tightening in its upcoming policy meeting, as well as concerns about China's debt and commodities markets. It all resulted in curbed demand for higher-yielding yet riskier Asian assets. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.73 percent to 4,878.86 points, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.04 percent to IDR 13,199 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Most stocks in Asia were higher on Wednesday (13/04) supported by positive trade data from China and heightened expectation of an "oil output freeze deal" at the OPEC meeting coming Sunday in Doha. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.49 percent to 4,853.00 points, a modest result compared with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index (+2.84 percent), Singapore's Strait Times Index (+2.69 percent), and China's Shanghai Composite Index (+1.42 percent).

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In line with the performance of most emerging stock markets and currencies, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah were under pressure on Monday (28/03). The Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.11 percent, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,343 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). This performance is caused by rising speculation that the US Federal Reserve could hike its key Fed Fund Rate as early as April. Several Fed officials have made hawkish comments, while the upward revised 1.4 percent GDP growth of the US economy in Q4-2015 may show that the US is strong enough to cope with another rate hike.

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According to Franky Sibarani, Head of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), around 200 Chinese furniture companies have expressed their interest to relocate their factories to Indonesia because operational costs in China have been rising sharply in recent years, particularly wages. Moreover, rattan (an important material for furniture) is readily available in Indonesia. Sibarani said the changing structure of the Chinese economy (shifting from investment and export-driven to consumption) is why many Chinese manufacturing companies want to relocate their companies abroad.

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Indonesia's steel and iron producers urge the government to limit imports of steel into Indonesia as these imports are a burden on the domestic steel industry. Data from the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA) show that steel imports from China - the world's largest steel producer - into Indonesia jumped 94 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 3 million tons in 2015. This surge is particularly caused by foreign contractors working on infrastructure projects in Indonesia.

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The Indonesian rupiah is extending its strong performance. On Monday morning (14/03), Indonesia's currency has been flirting with the IDR 13,000 per US dollar level. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had appreciated 0.48 percent to IDR 13,012 by 09:25 am local Jakarta time. The rupiah is one of the "commodity-sensitive" currencies that are feeling the positive impact of rising crude oil prices. Meanwhile, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.52 percent after opening of trade on Monday.

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In line with the overall trend in Asia, the Indonesian rupiah continued to appreciate against the US dollar on Wednesday (02/03). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the rupiah strengthened 0.34 percent to IDR 13,301 per US dollar, touching a four and a halve-month high and recording its longest winning streak since 2010. Over the past ten trading days the rupiah has been appreciating against the greenback. What made the Indonesian rupiah strengthen today?

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Indonesia's commodity-rich East Kalimantan is one of the worst affected Indonesian provinces in terms of global trade and weak commodity prices. East Kalimantan's export performance is heavily dependent on prices of oil, natural gas and coal. In 2015 the total value of East Kalimantan's exports plunged 30.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.3 billion from USD $26.35 billion in the preceding year. Since 2011 the province's exports have posted a consecutive annual decline in line with the declining trend of commodity prices.

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Most Asian stock markets fell on Tuesday (23/02) on extended concerns about the world's low crude oil prices and China's economic slowdown. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) plunged 1.16 percent to 4,654.05 points, leading declines in Asia as the nation's banking shares were also affected by local financial authorities' plans to curtail the net interest margin in order to bring down Indonesian banks' lending rates and boost credit expansion in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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After a real roller coaster ride, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) climbed 0.35 percent to 4,446.20 points at the end of the trading week. The majority of key stock indices across the globe tended to strengthen on Friday after a week characterized by severe volatility amid concern about the economic situation in China.

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Although Indonesian stocks managed to rebound, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar today (25/08). However, rupiah weakening was limited as Bank Indonesia was closely monitoring and intervening in markets to support the rupiah. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 14,054 per US dollar. As significant further rupiah weakening is assumed to seriously undermine confidence in the rupiah, the central bank’s intervention efforts are well received by investors.

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During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.

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For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.

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In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.

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Indonesia adalah pemegang saham terbesar ke-8 di Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) yang baru saja didirikan. Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengumumkan di awal minggu ini bahwa Indonesia akan menginvestasikan 672,1 juta dollar AS di AIIB selama lima tahun ke depan. AIIB adalah sebuah lembaga keuangan multilateral yang baru (dipelopori oleh Republik Rakyat Tiongkok) yang menyediakan dana untuk proyek pembangunan infrastruktur di wilayah Asia Pasifik.

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Sejalan dengan indeks lain di Asia, saham Indonesia naik pada hari Selasa (26/05). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,62% menjadi 5.320,90 poin. Sentimen-sentimen positif tidak berasal dari Amerika Serikat (AS) karena pasar saham AS ditutup kemarin karena hari libur namun terutama berasal dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) yang badan perencanaan perekonomiannya mengumumkan akan mengimplementasikan sejumlah kebijakan baru dalam usaha mendongkrak perekonomian yang lambat. Kendati begitu, rupiah melemah 0,25% menjadi Rp 13.220 per dollar AS berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Pada awal 2014 Indonesia memperkenalkan larangan ekspor yang telah lama direncanakan untuk biji mineral mentah dalam usaha untuk memperkuat perekonomian domestik dengan mengurangi ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditi mentah dan mengharuskan para penambang untuk mengolah biji-biji mentah di dalam negeri sebelum ekspor diizinkan. Sebagai suplier global penting untuk sejumlah biji mentah, peraturan Indonesia yang baru ini (ditetapkan oleh UU No. 4/2009 mengenai Pertambangan Batubara dan Mineral) memiliki dampak yang signifikan pada pasar dan harga global, salah satunya nikel.

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Indonesia is not the easiest place to invest for foreign investors. This is reflected by the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 index in which Indonesia ranks 120th. In a business forum, held last week in Beijing, Chinese businessmen expressed a number of matters that blocked or seriously delayed their investments in Indonesia. For Indonesia (both domestic and foreign) investment realization, particularly in infrastructure, is important as investments is considered the main driver for the country’s economic growth in 2016.

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On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).

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