Bank Pembangunan Asia (Asian Development Bank/ADB) mengumumkan telah mengurangi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 dan 2016 baik untuk Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) maupun negara-negara berkembang Asia lainnya karena perlambatan perekonomian yang berkelanjutan di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini. Ekspansi perekonomian RRT diproyeksikan untuk mencapai 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015 dan 6,8% (y/y) di 2016. Kedua proyeksi ini turun 0,2% poin dari proyeksi ADB sebelumnya.

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Sejalan dengan tren global, saham Indonesia terus naik pada Selasa (14/07). Kebanyakan indeks-indeks saham (di seluruh dunia) terus bergerak dalam wilayah hijau setelah Yunani yang dibebani banyak hutang mencapai kesepakatan dengan kreditor internasionalnya - setelah pertemuan darurat selama 17 jam - untuk sebuah paket penghematan yang akan tetap mempertahankan Yunani di dalam zona euro. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) telah naik 0,60% menjadi 4.923,36 poin pada pukul 11:45 WIB pada hari Selasa.

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global di 2015 menjadi 3,3% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), dari 3,5% (y/y) sebelumnya, karena musim dingin yang keras mempengaruhi Amerika Serikat (AS) dan sejalan dengan itu menarik turun pertumbuhan global. Di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, perekonomian AS berkontraksi 0,2% (y/y). Terlebih lagi, kekacauan di Yunani dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok menyebabkan volatilitas yang besar dalam pasar keuangan global, lembaga yang bermarkas di Washington ini menyatakan dalam sebuah update World Economic Outlook (WEO) pada hari Kamis (09/07).

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened further on Wednesday (08/07) due to the continuing fall of Chinese stocks (raising concerns about global economic growth) and the downward revision of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s economic growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2015. Furthermore, global uncertainty brought about by the looming Greek exit (Grexit) from the euro continues to plague markets worldwide and makes investors prefer to wait for more certain times.

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The World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) as private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia, is estimated to weaken further in the second half of 2015 while government spending has been lower than expected (causing subdued fixed investment). Furthermore, persistent low commodity prices and tighter credit conditions provide further pressures that led to the extreme downward revision.

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Meskipun Indonesia dianggap sebagai salah satu perekonomian Asia yang sangat rentah terhadap keluarnya Yunani dari zona euro (Greek exit/Grexit), saham dan rupiah Indonesia tidak melemah sebanyak aset-aset pasar negara berkembang lainnya pada hari Senin (29/06), hari perdagangan pertama setelah hancurnya pembicaraan antara Yunani, yang dibebani banyak hutang, dengan para kreditor internasionalnya. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh 0,82% menjadi 4.882,59 poin sementara rupiah melemah 0,24% menjadi Rp 13.339 per dollar AS (Indeks Bloomberg).

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Saham Indonesia diprediksi merasakan tekanan turun yang berat pada hari Senin (29/06) karena pembicaraan yang terhenti antara Yunani yang terbeban hutang dengan para kreditor internasionalnya. Transaksi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) masih belum dibuka namun pasar-pasar Asia yang lain segera jatuh setelah pembukaan. Indeks Nikkei 225 dari Jepang turun 2,28% sementara yen menguat (para investor sedang mengejar aset-aset yang aman), sementara KOSPI dari Korea Selatan jatuh 1,5%. Nilai euro sangat menurun dalam perdagangan Asia.

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In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR), Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the economy of Indonesia is currently facing four global risks. These four risks are low international commodity prices, China’s slowing economic expansion, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone and, lastly, further monetary tightening to be conducted by the US Federal Reserve. These issues are not new and have already contributed to slowing economic growth in Indonesia.

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Nilai saham Indonesia dan rupiah menguat pada hari perdagangan terakhir karena didukung oleh kenaikan sedang dari sejumlah indeks di Wall Street pada hari Kamis (07/05), yang sangat kontras dengan penjualan besar-besaran yang terjadi sehari sebelumnya setelah pimpinan Federal Reserve Janet Yellen menyatakan bahwa harga saham-saham Amerika Serikat (AS) mungkin dihargaii secara berlebihan. Sementara itu, data perdagangan yang lemah dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) mungkin akan mendorong para pembuat kebijakan RRT untuk menyediakan lebih banyak stimulus. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan naik 0,62% menjadi 5.182,21 poin pada hari Jumat (08/05).

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Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q1-2015 dicatat 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Meskipun telah diprediksi bahwa angka pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia akan jatuh di bawah batas 5%, perlambatan ini lebih buruk dari dugaan awal. Suryamin, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), menyatakan pada awal hari ini (05/05) bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat mencapai level terendah selama lima tahun akibat lemahnya ekspor (hasil dari berkurangnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di pasar ekspor) dan rendahnya harga minyak mentah dunia.

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Pasar saham di Indonesia telah menjadi sangat tidak stabil dalam minggu-minggu terakhir, dan ini telah membuat banyak investor menduga-duga apakah rally yang dimulai pada Oktober lalu masih dapat bertahan dan bisa dilanjutkan. Minggu lalu, MSCI Indonesia Index (yang diperdagangkan dengan simbol saham EIDO) mengalami kejatuhan besar - dari posisi yang jauh di atas batas 6.500 menjadi di bawah batas 6.000. Dari perspektif persentase, gerakan seperti ini bisa menyebabkan kerugian yang signifikan untuk mereka yang membeli saham-saham Indonesia saat harganya masih ada pada level tingkat atas.

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Investment realization in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2015 totaled IDR 124.6 trillion (USD $9.7 billion), up 16.9 percent from the same quarter last year. Domestic direct investment climbed 22.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 42.5 trillion, while foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 14 percent (y/y) to IDR 82.1 trillion in Q1-2015. These data, released by the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/04), brought some positivity in Indonesia after listed companies’ weak Q1-2015 financial results led to concern and capital outflow.

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In late 2014 Indonesian rubber producers and exporters were not amused when the government of China decided to approve a new standard for compound rubber imports. The permitted crude rubber content in imported compound rubber was cut from 95-99.5 percent to 88 percent, meaning that compound rubber imports into China became subject to a 20 percent import duty (the same tariff as natural rubber import duties). China’s new policy is a blow to its rubber suppliers, which include Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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Positive macroeconomic data of Indonesia - involving the significantly lower trade deficit in 2014 and easing inflation - had a good impact on the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday (03/02) although prior to closing the currency somewhat slid after Australia's central bank cut its interest rates causing speculation of further policy easing around the Asia Pacific region in a move to support sluggish growth and avert deflation. Most emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday against the US dollar on stronger risk appetite.

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Indonesian stocks hit a record high on Thursday (22/01). Most emerging Asian stocks and currencies strengthened on increased speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is to launch a massive bond-buying program (which was confirmed later on the day after Asian markets had closed), a move aimed at boosting inflation in the Eurozone and which puts pressure on euro-denominated assets. The euro had depreciated 1.67 percent against the US dollar by 11:20 ET on Thursday based on Bloomberg data.

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There was few good news from a global economic perspective as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply cut its outlook for global economic growth in the next two years. According to the IMF, global economic growth will only reach 3.5 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016 due to poorer prospects in China, Russia, the Eurozone, and Japan. Economic growth of China (the world’s second-largest economy) fell to a 24-year low at 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, below the government target of 7.5 percent (y/y).

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s three largest rubber producing countries (accounting for about 70 percent of total global natural rubber output), have agreed to avoid excessive natural rubber supply on the international market by limiting their rubber exports. The countries also agree to curb new rubber plantation development as well as to spur domestic rubber consumption in each country. This statement was read out by Douglas Uggah Embas, Plantation Industries Minister of Malaysia, in Kuala Lumpur today (20/11).

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