Aset-aset Indonesia ditutup dengan kuat pada hari Jumat (20/11). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah sama-sama menguat secara signifikan karena meningkatnya kejelasan mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS), sementara Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) mengumumkan bahwa Pemerintah RRT akan mengimplementasikan lebih banyak usaha untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, karenanya menguatkan nilai tukar yuan (mendukung penguatan nilai mata uang di negara-negara berkembang di Asia). IHSG naik 0,94% menjadi 4.561,33 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 1,10% menjadi Rp 13.623 per dollar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Saham-saham di Asia diprediksi akan berada di bawah tekanan hari ini karena harga minyak mentah turun 2,9% semalam setelah American Petroleum Institute menerbitkan sebuah laporan yang menyatakan suplai minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) bertambah secara tak terduga sebesar 6,3 juta barel. Harga komoditi lain juga turun setelah penerbitan data output industri yang jatuh dari Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) pada hari Rabu. Kendati begitu, dengan penjualan ritel RRT yang positif di bulan Oktober (kenaikan terkuat pada tahun ini) sedikit kemungkinan akan terjadi stimulus besar baru dari pihak berwenang RRT.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Kebanyakan indeks saham di Asia jatuh pada perdagangan hari Selasa (10/11) karena kekuatiran bahwa kemacetan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) berdampak negatif pada laju pertumbuhan ekonomi global, sedangkan pasar bersiap-siap menghadapi ancaman kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS) sebelum akhir tahun. Terlebih lagi, sentimen-sentimen di Asia Tenggara tidaklah positif karena mayoritas laporan pendapatan kuartal 3 tahun 2015 tidaklah memuaskan. Bila dikombinasikan, hal ini memicu peralihan ke aset-aset yang lebih aman. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh 1,08% menjadi 4.451,05 poin.

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With a staggering 271,000 jobs added to the US economy in October, exceeding forecasts by a big margin, while the US unemployment rate eased to 5.0 percent, the majority of analysts and market participants now expect to see a 25 basis points Fed Fund Rate hike in December (markets are currently pricing in a 70 percent chance of a December US rate hike). Meanwhile, trade data from China underscore the persistent economic slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. What are the effects of these issues on Indonesian assets?

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Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mixed after opening on Monday (09/11). While, Japanese shares touched a fresh 2.5 month high on a weaker yen and Chinese shares went up (despite disappointing trade data), shares in Indonesia, South Korea and Australia were down. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell approximately 0.50 percent after opening on Monday, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.83 percent to IDR 13,676 per US dollar by 09:16 am local Jakarta time.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are feeling the negative impact of news from the USA. Both Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said a Fed Fund Rate hike in December is a "live possibility" amid low US employment, continued GDP growth and confidence that inflation will rise to the US central bank's target range. As a result of these remarks gold dropped to a one-month low, stocks declined, while bond yields and the US dollar were pushed higher.

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Indek Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) adalah salah satu dari beberapa indeks di Asia yang melawan tren pada perdagangan hari ini (02/11). Sementara kebanyakan indeks Asia, dipimpin oleh saham di Jepang, jatuh karena kekuatiran mengenai kontraksi yang berkelanjutan di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), IHSG berhasil naik 0,22% menjadi 4.464,96 poin. Sementara itu, harga minyak jatuh dan dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) memperpanjang kerugian terhadap sebagian besar mata uang negara-negara berkembang.

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Most Asian stock indices opened lower on the first trading day of the week on persistent concern about China's economy. Chinese authorities announced that the country's official October manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.8 (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction), unchanged from the preceding month and below analysts' consensus of 50.1. Concern about sluggish manufacturing in China caused falling stock indices. Japanese shares were affected the most.

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Economic expansion of China slowed to a growth pace of 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, the slowest pace in five years. Although China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result was better than most analysts’ projections of 7.2 percent, Chinese policy makers will face difficulties to achieve its 7.5 percent annual growth target for full-year 2014. Being one of the most important trading partners of Indonesia, slowing economic growth of China has a major impact on the export performance of Indonesia.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.18 percent to 5,142.01 points on Monday (29/09) despite the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Possibly market participants took advantage of relatively cheap blue chip stocks after the 1.3 percent drop on Friday (26/09) caused by negative market sentiments brought about by the parliament’s passing of a bill which abolishes direct voting of regional leaders. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 542.4 billion.

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In line with the trend on other Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell on Monday (22/09) amid profit taking after three days of gains. Not even the appreciating rupiah exchange rate and net buying of foreign investors (IDR 26.6 billion) were able to push Indonesia’s index into the green zone. The IHSG declined 0.15 percent to 5,219.80 points. All sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) fell except for the consumer goods and finance sectors.

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The global nickel price declined 5.1 percent on Tuesday (09/09) after it became known that the Philippines would not implement a ban on exports of this commodity yet. Similar to Indonesia, the Philippines was preparing to implement a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals in an attempt to boost revenues (by exporting mining products with added value). However, it may take seven years before such a policy is implemented. This implies that the occurrence of a possible shortage of nickel on the global market in the coming years has diminished.

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IHSG mampu bergerak positif di awal minggu ini melampaui ekspektasi kekhawatiran kami terhadap potensi pelemahan lanjutan setelah mencermati penutupan laju bursa saham AS dan Eropa yang variatif cenderung melemah akhir minggu yang lalu. Berbalik positifnya laju bursa saham Asia seiring ekspektasi penilaian akan adanya tambahan stimulus dari pemerintah Cina berimbas pada terapresiasinya IHSG. Pelaku pasar pun kembali memanfaatkan pelemahahan sebelumnya untuk akumulasi secara bertahap.

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Weakening global stock indices meant that it would be difficult for the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) to continue its upward movement on Tuesday (05/08). Moreover, there were few positive sentiments originating from the Archipelago as Indonesia’s Q2-2014 GDP growth (+5.12 percent year-on-year) was below expectation and the country’s trade balance showed a deficit of USD $300 million in June 2014. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange appreciated slightly.

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Prestigious Hong Kong-based HSBC Bank claims that a new commodity boom may appear if India will boost investments in infrastructure and housing. Chances of increased spending in India have grown considerably after reform-minded Narendra Modi posted a victory in the May 2014 election. Economists at the HSBC Bank say that this may give rise to a new prolonged commodities boom as had occurred in the 2000s which - to a large extent - was triggered by accelerated economic growth in emerging economies, particularly China.

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Emerging currencies in Asia, led by the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, strengthened in the past week on positive economic data from the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. Companies in the US added more jobs than expected in June 2014, while manufacturing in China grew at its fastest pace in 2014. Improving economies of the US and China are important for Asian countries as it boosts Asian exports. Moreover, Indonesian inflation and trade data contributed to positive market sentiments.

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In the last 12 months, the international copper price showed a neutral movement (moving more or less sideways). This is particularly due to a number of issues in China, the world’s second largest economy, which impact negatively on the copper price movement. China has become such an important market for a variety of commodities, including copper (used in construction and electronics), that other countries can be considered almost irrelevant. Why do analysts have low expectations of the copper market for the remainder of 2014?

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