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Most stocks in Asia were in the red zone on Wednesday morning (21/06) as oil entered bear territory after prices continued to tumble (with Brent at seven-month lows) due to rising oil output in Libya and Nigeria. Meanwhile, Chinese shares seem to enjoy limited support only from the decision of US index provider MSCI to add China's mainland stocks to one of its key benchmarks.
The coal price is expected to rise in the remainder of this year as China seems eager to limit domestic coal output, while global coal demand is predicted to rise in the second half of 2017. After a steep decline in May, coal prices have been recovering in June. So far this month, coal prices rallied around 10 percent to slightly above USD $80 per ton (Newcastle index, July contracts).
Indonesia is known as the world's largest archipelago. However, local authorities do not exactly know how many islands Indonesia actually has. Back in 1996 the central government made a rough estimate of 17,500. However, rising concerns about illegal fishery and radical Islam as well as growth of protectionism (the battle for natural resources) has made the Indonesian government eager to turn the rough estimate into precise knowledge. However, this will not be an easy undertaking.
Despite seeing a supply surplus in Asia, coal prices are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future supported by expectations of Chinese intervention into domestic coal production. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal and therefore the main determinant of the coal price. On Friday (19/05), the Newcastle coal index (May 2017 contracts) rose 0.27 percent to USD $74.25 per ton.
Players in Indonesia's footwear industry are concerned about the sharp growth of imports of footwear (shoe) products into Indonesia, by far outpacing growth of footwear exports. Data released by the Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) show footwear imports into Indonesia rose 17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, while over the past two years exports of footwear products were recorded in the range of 3 - 4 percent (y/y).
Indonesian stocks continue to expand into record high territory. On Wednesday (05/04) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index gained 0.45 percent to close at 5,676.98 points, a fresh new record high position. Indonesia's main stock index is currently "hot" due to several internal and external factors. However, a new report released by Morgan Stanley may make investors a bit cautious as valuations for Indonesian stocks have been rising sharply recently.
Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), is concerned about the zero percent import duty policy (applied per 2018) for Chinese ceramics that are shipped into Indonesia. This policy could lead to massive ceramic imports from China and encourage the deindustrialization in Indonesia's ceramic sector.
Indonesia's exports of footwear to the United States (USA) are expected to reach the value of USD $1.5 billion in 2017, up 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) from USD $1.34 billion last year. This increase is expected to come on the back of US President Donald Trump's eagerness to limit imports from China by introducing higher tariffs. This policy should now open up opportunities for Indonesian footwear exporters.
After Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech late last week, markets are increasingly expecting to see a US interest rate hike this month. In her speech in Chicago on Friday (03/03), Yellen said the Fed will adjust its monetary policy (specifically the fed funds rate) in case US employment and inflation continue to evolve in line with the Fed's expectations. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017 and therefore it is believed only disastrous US labor market data can block an interest rate hike this month.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
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Supported by enthousiastic foreign investors, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or also known as IHSG) managed to climb 0.61 percent to 4,942.16 points on Tuesday (03/06). Particularly consumer, trade and mining stocks were popular on today's trading day. It is interesting to note that this growth happened amid sharp rupiah depreciation as the currency still feels the negative impact of the USD $1.97 billion April 2014 trade deficit that was released yesterday (02/06).
Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite index or IHSG) fell after the market responded to today's release of Indonesia's April trade deficit and May inflation, the index ended in the green zone due to foreign net buying and general positive Asian indices (influenced by higher stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week). Particularly Indonesia's big cap stocks in the miscellaneous industry and consumer sectors were popular as these were relatively cheap after having tumbled at the end of last week.
Investors' appetite for mining and plantation stocks managed to support the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Thursday's trading day (22/05). After the recent decline of the IHSG, market participants continued to accumulate stocks that are considered cheap. Furthermore, indices on Wall Street on Wednesday were up and impacted positively on Asian indices on Thursday, thereby providing positive market sentiments for the IHSG.
Although most Asian emerging currencies strengthened on Thursday (22/05) against the US dollar due to the preliminary HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recovering to 49.7 in May 2014 (from 48.1 one month earlier) and the Federal Reserve Minutes indicating that there will be no US interest rate hike soon, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to decline. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 11,531 per US dollar by 5pm local Jakarta time.
Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) declined shortly after the opening on Wednesday (21/05), during the remainder of the day it went up. This is a trend which we often detect: after a sharp fall we see a rebound on the following day as investors want to take advantage of 'cheap' stocks. However, the rebound was only limited as investors prefer to wait and see for further market sentiments first. The main positive factor today were rising Asian stock indices.
While most emerging Asian currencies fell, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.08 percent to IDR 11,523 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (12/05). The depreciating Chinese yuan, after its central bank set the midrate at its lowest level in eight months, put pressure on other Asian currencies. Today, Indonesia's Finance Ministry sold IDR 10 trillion rupiah (USD $867 million) of bonds, higher than the indicative target of IDR 8 trillion rupiah. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s two-year bonds gained.
Contrary to most Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as IHSG or the Jakarta Composite Index) declined on Thursday (08/05). Positive sentiments that were provided by the BI rate (Indonesia's benchmark interest rate) that was kept at 7.50% in today's Bank Indonesia Board of Governors' Meeting, and China's higher-than-expected trade balance in April 2014 (USD $18.5 billion), were offset by the depreciating rupiah exchange rate and foreign net selling of Indonesian stocks. The IHSG fell 0.02 percent to 4,860.89 points.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided at today’s Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting, convened on 8 May 2014, to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with efforts to steer the rate of inflation towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced on Monday (05/05) that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.21 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2014 (considerably below analysts' projections of around 5.6 percent), concerns have risen about the country's economic expansion for the remainder of the year. The government of Indonesia targets a GDP growth rate of between 5.8 and 6.0 percent (yoy). However, several international institutions do not agree with this optimistic target.
The benchmark Indonesia stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) moved sideways on Monday's trading day (05/05) influenced by Indonesia's disappointing GDP growth result in the first quarter of 2014 in combination with mixed Asian stock indices. At the start of the day, the index was up as investors believed that the Q1-2014 GDP growth result would be in line with expectations. However, after Statistics Indonesia announced the growth rate, the IHSG fell, although stayed in the green zone.
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