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Most stocks in Asia were in the red zone on Wednesday morning (21/06) as oil entered bear territory after prices continued to tumble (with Brent at seven-month lows) due to rising oil output in Libya and Nigeria. Meanwhile, Chinese shares seem to enjoy limited support only from the decision of US index provider MSCI to add China's mainland stocks to one of its key benchmarks.
The coal price is expected to rise in the remainder of this year as China seems eager to limit domestic coal output, while global coal demand is predicted to rise in the second half of 2017. After a steep decline in May, coal prices have been recovering in June. So far this month, coal prices rallied around 10 percent to slightly above USD $80 per ton (Newcastle index, July contracts).
Indonesia is known as the world's largest archipelago. However, local authorities do not exactly know how many islands Indonesia actually has. Back in 1996 the central government made a rough estimate of 17,500. However, rising concerns about illegal fishery and radical Islam as well as growth of protectionism (the battle for natural resources) has made the Indonesian government eager to turn the rough estimate into precise knowledge. However, this will not be an easy undertaking.
Despite seeing a supply surplus in Asia, coal prices are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future supported by expectations of Chinese intervention into domestic coal production. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal and therefore the main determinant of the coal price. On Friday (19/05), the Newcastle coal index (May 2017 contracts) rose 0.27 percent to USD $74.25 per ton.
Players in Indonesia's footwear industry are concerned about the sharp growth of imports of footwear (shoe) products into Indonesia, by far outpacing growth of footwear exports. Data released by the Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) show footwear imports into Indonesia rose 17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, while over the past two years exports of footwear products were recorded in the range of 3 - 4 percent (y/y).
Indonesian stocks continue to expand into record high territory. On Wednesday (05/04) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index gained 0.45 percent to close at 5,676.98 points, a fresh new record high position. Indonesia's main stock index is currently "hot" due to several internal and external factors. However, a new report released by Morgan Stanley may make investors a bit cautious as valuations for Indonesian stocks have been rising sharply recently.
Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), is concerned about the zero percent import duty policy (applied per 2018) for Chinese ceramics that are shipped into Indonesia. This policy could lead to massive ceramic imports from China and encourage the deindustrialization in Indonesia's ceramic sector.
Indonesia's exports of footwear to the United States (USA) are expected to reach the value of USD $1.5 billion in 2017, up 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) from USD $1.34 billion last year. This increase is expected to come on the back of US President Donald Trump's eagerness to limit imports from China by introducing higher tariffs. This policy should now open up opportunities for Indonesian footwear exporters.
After Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech late last week, markets are increasingly expecting to see a US interest rate hike this month. In her speech in Chicago on Friday (03/03), Yellen said the Fed will adjust its monetary policy (specifically the fed funds rate) in case US employment and inflation continue to evolve in line with the Fed's expectations. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017 and therefore it is believed only disastrous US labor market data can block an interest rate hike this month.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
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Broad activity in the financial markets has been limited over the last few weeks, as holiday-thinned trading conditions have slowed volatility in most of the commonly watched assets. A large part of the reasoning behind this can be seen in the fact that market moving news headlines have not been seen and most investors are still looking for ways to identify the most likely direction to follow in the equities space.
After having experienced two consecutive months of deflation in September and October, Indonesia is expected to see inflation again in November, primarily on higher food prices (chicken meat and rice). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects an inflation rate of 0.2 percent (month-on-month) in November. This would mean that inflation in full-year 2015 is likely to reach 3 percent (y/y), in line with earlier estimates and within - or perhaps slightly below - Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) of inflation in 2015.
Performa perekonomian Indonesia di kuartal 3 tahun 2015 agak mengecewakan pada 4,73% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) yang sedikit di bawah perkiraan pasar pada 4,8% (y/y). Kendati begitu, sebagai catatan positif, pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia berakselerasi dari level terendah selama 6 tahun terakhir pada 4,67% (y/y) di kuartal sebelumnya. Tabel di bawah menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan kuartal 3 PDB Indonesia jarang melebihi pertumbuhan kuartal 2. Ini jelas merupakan pertanda yang memberikan harapan.
Today (22/10), the World Bank released the October 2015 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "In Times of Global Volatility". In the report the World Bank states that despite current ongoing global uncertainties (caused by looming monetary tightening in the USA and China's economic slowdown), which make macroeconomic management difficult in the year ahead, pro-active government action could offset the negative impact and may help to boost growth.
Last week it was officially announced that China Railway International Co. Ltd, subsidiary of China Railway Group Ltd, together with a consortium consisting of Indonesian state-owned enterprises (which include Pilar Sinergi BUMN Indonesia, Wijaya Karya, Kereta Api, and Jasa Marga) will build Indonesia's first ever high-speed railway, valued at over USD $5 billion, between the capital city of Jakarta and Bandung (in West Java), a route that stretches for approximately 150 km.
Indonesia's heavily depreciated rupiah makes it more difficult for Indonesians to study abroad or to send their children to universities abroad without having the financial aid in the form of a scholarship. For those that are thinking of making such a decision, they need to take into account the performance of the Indonesian rupiah as well as the inflation outlook in the country of destination. So far in 2015, the Indonesian rupiah has depreciated 18 percent against the US dollar, 9 percent against the euro, 14 percent against China's yuan, and 2.4 percent against the Australian dollar.
Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) telah memenangkan sebuah kontrak untuk membangun jalur kereta berkecepatan tinggi antara Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta dan Bandung (Jawa Barat), mengalahkan Jepang dalam proses ini. Pada awal bulan ini, Pemerintah Indonesia secara tak terduga memutuskan untuk menunda proposal dari Jepang dan RRT untuk konstruksi jalur kereta berkecepatan tinggi bernilai miliaran rupiah antara kedua kota karena proposal-proposal ini mencakup bantuan keuangan atau jaminan dari Pemerintah Indonesia. Terlebih lagi, Indonesia menganggap kereta super cepat tidak diperlukan untuk rute yang relatif pendek (150 km).
For those who follow Indonesian stock markets, it is no mystery that the trend have not been encouraging or supportive in the year 2015. Several important stock benchmarks that track equity performance for the region show year-to-date losses of 30% or more, and this has led many investors to steer clear of the emerging markets space until things start to stabilize.
In the latest update of its flagship publication Asian Development Outlook 2015, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said softer economic growth prospects of China and India in combination with slow recovery in the major industrial markets were reason why the ADB has cut its economic growth forecast for developing Asia in 2015 and 2016. The ADB now estimates GDP growth in developing Asia at 5.8 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 6.0 percent (y/y) in 2016, down from previous GDP growth forecasts of 6.3 percent (y/y) for both years.
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia this year from five percent (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) due to the perceived hard landing of China’s economy in combination with sluggish conditions in Japan and the Eurozone. Weak demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and the top trading partner of Indonesia, is expected to continue to plague Indonesian exports and earnings.
