Contrary to Newmont Nusa Tenggara (which has been in a heated dispute with the Indonesian government), Freeport Indonesia obtained a permit to resume copper concentrate exports from Indonesia after these had ceased since January 2014 when the government implemented the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals. Freeport Indonesia Chief Executive Rozik Sutjipto announced that the memorandum of understanding between both sides has been signed. The miner is the Indonesian unit of US based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold.

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According to the latest Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), released on 26 June 2014, confidence of Indonesian businesses regarding the country’s economy as well as business environment experienced a significant decline in the second quarter of 2014 from a net balance of 78 percent¹ in the previous quarter to 48 percent. However, despite this decline, optimism amongst Indonesian business owners is still ahead of the global average at 46 percent. Indonesia is ranked fourteenth among the 34 surveyed economies.

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Indonesia's Minister for Energy and Mineral Resources Jero Wacik opened the possibility for Newmont Nusa Tenggara, subsidiary of US-based gold miner Newmont Mining Corporation, to resume exports of ore concentrates, provided that Newmont shows its commitment to build a smelter in Indonesia as in accordance with the new and controversial 2009 Mining Law. One of the targets of this new law is to boost Indonesia’s downstream mining industry by prohibiting export of unprocessed minerals.

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R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that Freeport Indonesia and Newmont Nusa Tenggara, two of the largest copper miners in Indonesia, have shown their commitment to build refining facilities (in line with the 2009 Mining Law) by agreeing to transfer a total of USD $140 million to the government as a deposit guarantee. Freeport will transfer USD $115 million, whereas Newmont will transfer the remaining USD $25 million.

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The non-oil & gas industry of Indonesia grew 5.56 percent in the first quarter of 2014. Although general economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy has slowed to 5.21 percent in the first quarter, several industries such as the Food and Beverage Processing Industry, the Transportation Equipment Industry, Machinery & Equipment Industry, as well as Farming & Plantation-based Industries post strong growth. The Indonesian Industry Ministry targets a 6.5 percentage rate for the country's industrial sector in 2014.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, expects that the country’s trade balance will post a surplus of around USD $600 million in April 2014, roughly similar to the surplus that was recorded one month earlier (USD $673 million). The April 2014 surplus would be supported by an improvement in non-oil & gas exports, stable commodity prices (particularly coal and crude palm oil/CPO), as well as the waning influence of the Minerba Act.

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Indonesia's March 2014 trade balance recorded a surplus of USD $673 million as the value of exports reached USD $15.21 billion, while imports stood at USD $14.54 billion. It was the second consecutive monthly trade surplus for Indonesia. In February 2014, the country posted an USD $843.4 million trade surplus. In the first three months of this year, Indonesia's trade balance now accumulated to an USD $1.07 billion surplus. Market participants will be pleased to see this balance as it eases pressures on the current account deficit.

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The government of Indonesia has been preparing strategies to face Japan's possible complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about Indonesia's recently introduced export ban of mineral ore (UU Minerba No. 4 - 2009). A special team from Indonesia's Trade Ministry, headed by Gusmardi Bustami, has been set up to handle the dispute. Japan feels forced to bring the export ban case to the WTO because its industry is highly dependent on the supply of certain raw Indonesian commodities, particularly nickel.

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The government of Japan is most likely to file a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of mineral ore (UU Minerba No. 4 - 2009). Although the WTO is yet to receive a formal letter of protest, Indonesian newspaper Investor Daily reported on Friday (04/04) that Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi has already received a letter from Japan's Minister of Foreign Affairs in which the step was announced. Japan feels forced to bring the case to the WTO as its industry is affected by the ban.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects a trade surplus of around USD $700 million in February 2014. If Martowardojo's forecast is realized, it would be a sharp contrast to the USD $430.6 million trade deficit that was recorded one month earlier. In January, the trade deficit was mainly due to declining exports of coal and vegetable oil (which together account for 26.7 percent of total non-oil & gas exports), among others, due to ongoing annual contractual negotiations at the year-start.

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Freeport Indonesia, subsidiary of US-based natural resources company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, is optimistic that the Indonesian government will extend the company’s contract to operate the Grasberg mine in Papua (eastern Indonesia). This mine is the world’s largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. The current contract between the Indonesian government and Freeport Indonesia expires in 2021. However, Freeport is currently in need of some certainty before investing a large amount on mining operations and smelting facilities.

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Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first half of 2014 reached 5.17 percent (year-on-year), thus continuing the slowing growth trend that has been recorded by the country since 2011. Forecasts for GDP growth in the second half of 2014 indicate a slight improvement (to the range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent year-on-year) supported by strong household consumption, increased government spending and further growth of the trade and services sector. However, in recent quarters the official GDP figure has been lower than most forecasts.

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Whether Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) will file for international arbitration over a six-month old export dispute with the Indonesian government remains unclear. Although many analysts would like to see international arbitration over this case, such a step would imply several risks for the copper miner (which is for 56 percent owned by US-based Newmont Mining Corporation and Japan’s Nusa Tenggara Mining Corporation). The source of the dispute is Indonesia’s recently-introduced ban on exports of ore concentrates.

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Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Jero Wacik regrets to see Newmont Nusa Tenggara, one of Indonesia largest copper miners, file for international arbitration due to Indonesia’s export ban stipulated by Law 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (Minerba). This new law includes the ban on exports of ore concentrates from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Instead, Indonesian miners are required to process the minerals domestically first. The ban was implemented on 12 January 2014.

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Although the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.86 percent to IDR 11,995 per US dollar on Friday (27/06) as economic data from China, South Korea and Taiwan sparked optimism that regional growth has picked up, the recent depreciating trend of Indonesia’s currency burdens the country’s manufacturing industry. This industry is still dependent on imports of raw materials, capital goods and auxiliary materials, which are paid using US dollars causing the domestic industry to feel the financial impact of a weaker rupiah.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (05/05) that the economy of Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - grew at a much slower pace in the first quarter of 2014 than had been expected by analysts. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 5.21 percent (year-on-year) in Q1-2014, significantly down from the 6.03 percentage growth (yoy) that was recorded in Q1-2013. Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed to 5.13 percent from 5.9 percent in the same period last year.

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