Forecasts for crude palm oil (CPO) futures in 2015 are positive as prices are expected to rise on declining inventories in Malaysia, growing Indian CPO imports, and falling Indonesian CPO exports as domestic biodiesel demand rises in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a four-month high at the start of the week (touching 2,345 ringgit per metric ton) partly due to sharp ringgit depreciation (which makes CPO relatively cheap for other currency-holders). However, today (06/11) futures fell 1.3 percent to 2,223 ringgit.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) producers have released good corporate earnings over the first nine months of 2014. Below, we have presented an overview of those CPO producers, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, that have already released their financial results. Combined, these eleven companies recorded net profit growth of 155.3 percent year-on-year (y/y). The main reason for this improved performance was the 24 percent (average) increase in global CPO prices as the commodity gained popularity as an energy source.

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Exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and CPO derived products from Indonesia in the first nine months of 2014 only reached 15 million tons, down 1.75 percent from the same period last year. The main cause for this disappointing performance is slowing economic growth in China and India resulting in reduced palm oil demand from these two giant economies. As a result of weak global demand, the CPO price has fallen to an average price of USD $712 per ton in September 2014, down 5.4 percent from the previous month.

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Malaysia announced that it has extended its zero export tariff for crude palm oil (CPO) until the end of the year in an attempt to boost sales. Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Douglas Uggah Embas said that this decision is aimed at preventing a further drastic fall in CPO prices. Palm oil futures declined by about 18 percent in 2014 amid an oversupply in combination with weak global demand. Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s top palm oil producers and exporters.

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Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) has passed a new plantations bill that aims to maximize land usage and opens up Indonesia’s plantation sector to smallholders. However, the retroactive clause that would limit foreign ownership to a maximum of 30 percent (from 95 percent currently) was dropped from the final version. This clause was highly controversial and would have been a major obstacle for foreign companies engaged in Indonesia’s plantation sector (such as Golden Agri-Resources and Wilmar International).

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Speculation emerged that Indonesia will scrap its export tariff for crude palm oil (CPO) in an attempt to boost sales. Three weeks ago, Malaysia had already scrapped the export tax for CPO for a period of two months to support exports and reverse a decline in CPO prices. Malaysian palm oil exports then immediately surged over 30 percent (month-to-month) in the first half of September, indicating the success of the export tax policy. Thus, the two countries - the world’s two largest producers and exporters of CPO - may become involved in a ‘tax war’.

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Indonesian stockpiles of crude palm oil (CPO) in August 2014 may have reached the highest level in 15 months on increased production and reduced global demand. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, CPO stockpiles in Indonesia surged 24 percent to 2.5 million metric tons in August (from 2.02 million metric tons in the previous month). Meanwhile, Indonesian CPO production grew 19 percent to 2.55 million metric tons, while CPO exports declined 2.2 percent to 1.8 million metric tons. Bloomberg used data from five planters and one refiner.

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Indonesia is expected to challenge the anti-dumping measures on fatty alcohol - set by the European Union (EU) - at the World Trade Organization (WTO) as bilateral meetings have not led to the desired outcome. Recently, two Indonesian companies (Musim Mas and Ecogreen Oleochemicals) were forced by the EU to pay anti-dumping duties as these companies sold fatty alcohol at prices that were lower than those in the EU. Fatty Alcohol is made from palm kernel oil (a palm oil derivative) and are used in a wide variety of personal care products.

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Indonesia Investments has updated the company profile of plantation firm PP London Sumatra Indonesia (or Lonsum). This Indonesian plantation company, controlled by the Salim Group, focuses on the production of palm oil, rubber, tea and cocoa on its estates on Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi (covering more than 110,000 hectares in total). Although the global palm oil seed and rubber trade is expected to remain sluggish in 2014, increased sales (and global price) of crude palm oil (CPO) will impact positively on the company’s financial results.

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The Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia expects that domestic production of palm oil in 2014 will decline 10 percent (roughly two million tons) from last year due to the possible impact of the El Niño weather cycle in the second half of this year. El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs once every 5 years on average and involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America. This can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean, impacting on the global commodities market.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price touched its highest level so far this year. On Tuesday (20/09) palm oil futures (December delivery) - traded on the Kuala Lumpur exchange - ended the day at 2,690 ringgit (approx. USD $651 per metric ton). Palm oil prices are rising as CPO production in Indonesia and Malaysia will remain subdued this year due to droughts that were brought by the El Nino weather phenomenon earlier in 2016, while there is expectation of a rather wet season later this year due to the La Nina weather phenomenon.

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Expectation of rising fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and crude palm oil (CPO) volumes in the second half of the year should boost the corporate earnings of Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading agribusiness companies. Meanwhile, sentiments related to the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand on the back of the Indonesian government's biodiesel program should support CPO prices. Astra Agro Lestari is the plantation unit of diversified conglomerate Astra International.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo has ordered the nation's Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya to issue a moratorium on new palm oil concessions in a number of provinces. Although Widodo wants Indonesia - the world's top producer and exporter of crude palm oil (CPO) - to raise CPO output, he believes this increase can be achieved by increasing productivity of existing palm oil plantations, not by adding new plantations. Indonesia is often criticized by environmentalist groups for its forestry policies and poor law enforcement (which led to the severe haze that spread through Southeast Asia last year).

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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The crude palm oil business received a blow when France announced it plans to impose progressive tax on imports of crude palm oil and its derivatives. French authorities approved a bill on 21 January 2016 that will raise the import tax on palm oil from around 100 euro per ton currently to 300 euro per ton in 2017. This tariff will then be raised to 700 euro per ton in 2019, and to 900 euro per ton in 2020. Through this tax hike France aims to discourage the palm oil industry, hence curtailing global deforestation as well as to protect its citizens from the negative health effects caused by the consumption of palm oil.

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The world's two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters - Indonesia and Malaysia - signed an agreement on Saturday (21/11) for the establishment of an intergovernmental palm oil council, called the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries (CPOPC), that aims to control the global CPO supply, stabilize prices, promote sustainable practices in the palm oil industry, and enhance the welfare of oil palm smallholders. Both countries will invest USD $5 million each for the set up of this new council. Its headquarters will be located in Jakarta.

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Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters, will cooperate for the development of a special economic zone on Indonesian territory to boost the palm oil industry's downstream industry. Private companies will be given incentives to invest in this zone and develop industries to process CPO into olein, a key ingredient for the production of cosmetics and margarine. Furthermore, both countries plan to establish the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries.

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Hasil produksi minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) di Indonesia, produsen dan eksportir CPO terbesar di dunia, mungkin turun sebanyak 20% menjadi 27,5 juta ton di 2016 karena dampak negatif dari fenomena cuaca El Nino. Sebagai catatan positif, penurunan hasil produksi CPO di Indonesia dapat mendukung harga CPO yang telah jatuh ke level terendah selama 6,5 tahun terakhir pada 1.836 ringgit minggu lalu.

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Malaysia, the world’s second-largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer and exporter, will continue its duty-free export tariff for CPO in January 2015 according to information from the Malaysian customs department. Starting from September 2014 Malaysian authorities have implemented a duty-free CPO export policy in an effort to boost global demand and support international CPO prices (which have fallen nearly 20 percent this year). Indonesia, which has seen duty-free CPO shipments since October 2014, is expected to follow suit.

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Reserves of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia may have declined for a second straight month in October on the back of drought and an increase in exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The delayed impact of drought (which even managed to dry up several rivers in West Kalimantan in October) limited production of CPO in recent weeks. Meanwhile, exports have increased after Indonesia and Malaysia - the world’s two top palm oil producers - scrapped export taxes to boost demand for this commodity.

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