Franky Oesman Widjaja, Chairman of Sinar Mas Agribusiness & Foods, expects Indonesia's crude palm oil production in 2016 to drop by 5-10 percent (y/y) due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon that brought extreme dry weather to Southeast Asia in 2015. However, in several Indonesian regions palm oil plantations are now being plagued by floods giving rise to speculation whether El Nino is to be followed by La Nina. La Nina - the opposite of El Nino - brings cooler than average sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean causing wetter-than-usual weather in Southeast Asia.

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Riset Perkebunan Nusantara, a state-owned research firm, expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to drop 4.2 percent (y/y) to 32 million tons in 2016. The firm further adds that in 2015 Indonesia had a total of 11.3 million hectares of palm oil plantation, consisting of plantations owned by the state (750,000 hectares), plantations owned by the private sector (5.97 million hectares) and plantations owned by smallholders (4.58 million hectares). The palm oil sector is one of Indonesia's key foreign exchange earners. Indonesia is the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, followed by Malaysia.

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Bayu Krisnamurthi, President Director of the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund (BPDP-KS), said total exports of palm oil and its derivatives in the first quarter of 2016 reached 7.42 million tons. It is interesting to note that 87.2 percent of this total figure (or 6.47 million tons) comprises processed palm oil products, while the remainder consists of crude palm oil (CPO), implying that the downstreaming of the palm oil sector is developing smoothly. Krisnamurthi says the imposition of export levies on CPO has managed to encourage the development of downstream industries in the nation's palm oil sector.

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Nine or ten crude palm oil (CPO) producers want to join the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries (CPOPC), the intergovernmental palm oil council set up by the world's two largest CPO producers and exporters: Indonesia and Malaysia. These two initiators signed an agreement in November 2015 for the establishment of the CPOPC - headquartered in Jakarta - that aims to control the global CPO supply, stabilize palm oil prices, promote sustainable practices in the palm oil industry, and enhance the welfare of oil palm smallholders; more or less the role that OPEC has in the crude oil industry.

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Global ratings agency Fitch Ratings cut its outlook on three Indonesian palm oil companies - Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology (SMART), Ivo Mas Tungkal, and Sawit Mas Sejahtera - from stable to negative. The rating of the three companies was cut to AA (idn) by Fitch Ratings Indonesia. However, an AA (idn) rating still denotes a low probability of default for the company and its bonds. The rating of bonds of SMAR, due in 2017 and 2019, were also cut to AA (idn). The three palm oil companies are owned by Golden Agri Resources, part of the Sinar Mas Group that is controlled by Eka Tjipta Widjaja, one of the richest Indonesians.

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Efforts made by the Indonesian government to convince France not to impose a progressive tax on imports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives have had some success. According to the latest stories, French authorities agree to cut the proposed additional import tax from 300 euro to 90 euro per ton. Earlier, on 21 January 2016, France approved a bill that gives birth to a progressive import tax on CPO and derivatives starting at an additional 300 euro per ton in 2017 and then increasing to 700 euro per ton in 2019, and to 900 euro per ton in 2020. Currently, France's import tax on CPO is just above 100 euro per ton.

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Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to decline to around 32.1 million tons in 2016 from 32.5 million tons in the preceding year. This decline, which would be the first (full calendar year) drop in Indonesia's palm oil output since 1998, is caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes dry weather in Southeast Asia hence curtailing palm oil fruit yields. CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer and exporter (after Indonesia), has also been affected.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price continues to rise supported by the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes a dry spell in Southeast Asia, home to the world's largest palm oil plantations. As a result, CPO inventories in Malaysia may have declined to 2.11 million tons, an 11-month low in February 2016. Meanwhile, Singapore-based agribusiness trader Olam International Ltd said CPO stocks will decline to the range of 1.5 - 2.0 million tons in the second quarter of 2016. Obstacles to higher CPO prices are Malaysia's strengthening ringgit (which curtails demand for Malaysian palm oil) and attractive prices of soybean oil.

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The value of Indonesia's exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives plunged 11.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.6 billion in 2015 from USD $21.1 billion in the preceding year. However, in terms of volume, Indonesian exports of CPO and its derivatives actually rose 21.7 percent to 26.4 million tons. The higher volume but lower earnings are explained by the palm oil price. Palm oil traded at an average of USD $614.20 per ton in 2015, down 24.9 percent (y/y) from an average price of USD $818.20 per ton in 2014.

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Gabungan Pengusaha Kelapa Sawit Indonesia (Gapki) mengatakan ekspor minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) Indonesia berada pada 2,38 juta pada bulan November 2015, turun 8,6% dari ekspor CPO di bulan sebelumnya. Penurunan ini disebabkan karena permintaan yang lebih lemah dari pasar-pasar ekspor utama Indonesia dan harga kacang kedelai yang murah (minyak kedelai bisa menggantikan minyak sawit sebagai bahan dasar untuk pembuatan makanan dan biodiesel). Kendati begitu, pada basis year-on-year (y/y), ekspor CPO Indonesia naik 21% (y/y) menjadi 23,9 juta di periode Januari-November 2015.

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Last week, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono extended the moratorium on new permits to convert natural forests and peat lands for a further two years. In 2011, Indonesia's government signed the two-year primary forest moratorium that came into effect on 20 May 2011 and expired in May 2013. This moratorium implies a temporary stop to the granting of new permits to clear rain forests and peat lands in the country. The moratorium particularly aims to limit Indonesia's quickly expanding palm oil industry.

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Shareholders of Astra Agro Lestari, Indonesia's largest agribusiness company by value (which is particularly engaged in palm oil and rubber plantations), agreed to distribute IDR 1.08 trillion (USD $111 million) in dividends to its shareholders. The allocated amount is equivalent to about 45 percent of the company's net profit in 2012. Dividend per share is set at IDR 685 (USD $0.071). Last November, the company had already paid interim dividend of IDR 230 per share. Final dividend will be paid on 3 June 2013.

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