Chances are big that the banking sector of Indonesia will see the non performing loan (NPL) ratio rise up to the range of 3.0 - 3.5 percent in 2017. Anton Gunawan, Chief Economist at state-controlled Bank Mandiri, says the rising NPL ratio is not so much caused by the lower quality of credit in Indonesia's banking system. The bigger problem is rising "special mention" loans, a loan grade that refers to assets that pose potential weaknesses that require close attention.

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Indonesia's state news agency Antara reported that the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the government agency that regulates and supervises the financial services sector, revoked the license of the local unit of the Royal Bank of Scotland NV (RBS NV), hence effectively ending the company's business in Indonesia. The revocation was conducted on request of the lender's headquarters in the Netherlands. This request was sent on 1 November 2016. The bank had a long history in Indonesia. RBS NV started operations in 1969 in Southeast Asia's largest economy under the name ABN AMRO BANK NV Indonesia.

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Kasikornbank, the fourth-largest bank in Thailand, expressed its intention to acquire a bank in Indonesia. However, in line with the content of the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework, this plan cannot be carried out rapidly. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK), which regulates and supervises the financial services sectors in Indonesia, only allows a foreign investor to acquire a majority-stake in small Indonesian banks (categorized under the BUKU 1 system) provided the foreign investor purchases two (small) banks and merge these into one entity.

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Credit growth in Indonesia improved in October 2016 after touching a low in the preceding month. In October credit growth in Indonesia was recorded at a pace of 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), reaching IDR 4,246.6 trillion (approx. USD $314.6 billion), accelerating from a growth pace of 6.4 percent (y/y) in September. This development is caused by Bank Indonesia's lower interest rates although the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election may have curtailed demand for credit due to the higher degree of uncertainty about future US political and economic policies.

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Credit growth in Indonesia is expected to have continued its slide in Q3-2016. On an annual basis, credit growth may have eased to 6 percent. Bank Indonesia, the nation's central bank, still upholds its 2016 credit growth target of 7-9 percent (y/y) as it eyes an improvement in credit disbursement in the last quarter of the year. Slowing corporate credit growth signals that firms are less enthusiastic to engage in business expansion and investment, while easing individual credit growth implies that consumers are less eager to obtain loans for the purchase of property, cars and motorcycles.

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The net interest margin (NIM) of Indonesian banks rose while the nation's credit growth slowed and economic growth remained 'bleakish'. In June 2016 the average NIM of Indonesian banks was recorded at 5.59 percent compared to 5.32 percent in the same month one year earlier. The higher NIM is the result of improved credit quality, reflected by a lower non performing loan (NPL) ratio. NIM is the difference between interest income generated by banks and the amount of interest paid out by banks to the lenders. A higher NIM implies that the bank is more profitable.

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Indonesian banks support the country's financial authorities' intention to cut lending rates to single digit margins (in a bid to boost credit growth and economic activity). However, these banks argue that lower interest rates should be the result of enhanced efficiency at banks, not by the Financial Services Authority (OJK)'s plan to cut banks' net interest margin (NIM). Earlier this year, the OJK - the government agency that regulates and supervises Indonesia's financial services sector - announced its plan to push state-owned banks' NIM down to the range of 3 to 4 percent.

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Even though Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK) has been eager to encourage local banks to raise efficiency, banks' ratio of operating expenses to operating income (ROEOI) has in fact risen. For example, the ROEOI of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) rose 406 basis points from 68.04 percent in March 2015 to 72.10 percent in March 2016. BRI's Finance Director Haru Koesmahargyo said the bank's higher ROEOI is caused by the bank's rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratio. In Q1-2016 BRI's NPL ratio rose 20 basis points to 2.22 percent.

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Credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter of 2016. This weak performance is attributed to the slowdown in the country's real sector. Muliaman D. Hadad, Chairman of Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK), said credit expansion grew 10 percent (y/y) to IDR 4,084 billion (approx. USD $300 billion) in Q1-2016. However, Hadad remains optimistic that credit expansion will accelerate in the second half of the year in line with forecasts for accelerating GDP growth. This will be a better context for businesses to expand.

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On 27 March 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as infrastructure development, the current account deficit, updates on various sectors including property and banking, the controversial decision regarding the Masela LNG plant, land reclamation, and much more.

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New York-based financial services firm Standard & Poor's stated that Indonesia's banking industry will feel the negative impact of Indonesia's sluggish economic growth in combination with persistently low commodity prices next year. This combination may weaken profitability of the nation's banking industry. S&P puts Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 at 5 percent (y/y), below the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's forecast as well as the central government's target, all at 5.3 percent (y/y).

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Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) issued a new regulation that simplifies the opening of a foreign currency bank account by a foreign national (expat). A circular, S-246/S.01/2015 (dated 15 September 2015 and signed by OJK Chairman Muliaman D. Hadad), has been sent to all directors of Indonesian commercial banks that conduct business in foreign currencies. This new rule, part of the economic policy package that was released by the Indonesian government on 9 September, aims to boost foreign currency funds in Indonesia and support the rupiah.

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Soon it will be easier for foreigners (expats) to have a foreign currency bank account (non-rupiah) in Indonesia. Muliaman D. Hadad, Chairman of the Financial Services Authority (OJK), stated it is bound to issue a new regulation that allows for easier banking in foreign currencies in Indonesia. This regulation is made in an effort to raise the country’s foreign exchange reserves and support the ailing rupiah.

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During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.

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Pihak-pihak berwenang keuangan Indonesia sedang mempertimbangkan untuk mempermudah kepemilikan asing di bank syariah lokal serta mempromosikan instrumen-instrumen finansial (taat syariah) baru dalam rangka menciptakan industri keuangan syariah yang lebih menarik untuk investor asing dan masyarakat Indonesia. Meskipun memiliki populasi Muslim terbesar di dunia dan merupakan negara dengan ekonomi berkembang yang dinamis, Indonesia hanya memainkan peran kecil dalam industri perbankan syariah global. Sementara itu, secara domestik, perbankan syariah masih jauh di belakang perbankan konvensional.

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Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. This interest rate environment is considered to be in line with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to push the country’s inflation figure within its target of 4±1 percent for 2015 and 2016, as well as to control the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.

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Perbankan syariah atau jasa keuagan syariah adalah potensi besar yang belum banyak dimanfaatkan di Indonesia, negara tempat tinggal 13% dari total populasi umat Muslim dunia. Mengingat hampir 90% dari 250 juta orang di Indonesia memeluk agama Islam, pangsa pasar jasa keuangan syariah masih sangat rendah sekarang. Dengan asetnya sebesar 24 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), bank-bank syariah di Indonesia hanya memiliki 4,9% dari jumlah total aset perbankan di 2013. Hal ini membuat Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) berencana meluncurkan roadmap lima tahun untuk mendongkrak perbankan syariah.

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Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) signed an agreement (the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework, abbreviated ABIF) with Malaysia’s central bank to support banking integration in the ASEAN region. The website of Bank Indonesia states that ABIF “provides an operating framework for ASEAN member states to implement principles and the integration process in the banking sector to support the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) [which is to be implemented later this year]”.

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The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) wrote in its most recent report that emerging economies, which includes Indonesia, are highly vulnerable to severe capital outflows as investments from the West have been highly speculative and can be quickly pulled out from emerging markets. Even when only a light shock occurs, capital outflows will be significant as international investors have been showing ‘herd behaviour’. This behavior can rock the financial fundamentals of emerging markets and leave these countries shattered.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for the tenth consecutive month as inflation is under control and well within the year-end target of the central bank (3.5-5.5 percent). The lending facility and deposit facility were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively, at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s Meeting (11/09). The central bank also expects that the current interest rate environment is capable of curbing the country’s wide current account deficit.

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