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Berita Hari Ini Cement
Last month, Indonesia's cement sales increased by 15 percent to 4.65 million metric tonnes compared to cement sales in January last year. Strong GDP growth of over six percent annually in recent years has caused a rise in property development and infrastructure projects. Per capita cement consumption in Indonesia - which currently stands at around 200 kilogram per year - is still one of the lowest in Asia.
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Cement sales in Indonesia - a key indicator to measure the state of infrastructure and property development - declined 3.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.64 million tons in September 2016. This decline was attributed to fewer cement demand from the property sector (housing and apartments). Meanwhile, shares of state-controlled cement maker Semen Indonesia fell 2.91 percent on Tuesday (11/10) after Jakarta's Supreme Court revoked the environmental permit for the company's USD $320 million cement plant in Rembang (Central Java).
Indonesia's cement exports are targeted to reach 1.5 million tons in 2016, up 50 percent (y/y) from the realization of approximately 1 million tons in the preceding year. Up to the end of July 2016 Indonesian cement exports had already risen by 63 percent (y/y) this year. Although coming from a low base, rapidly increasing cement exports are highly welcome to offset the nation's rising cement oversupply. Due to the arrival of new cement producers and production expansion of existing cement players, while domestic cement consumption remains bleak, there occurred a big oversupply.
To assess Indonesia's purchasing power and consumer confidence it is always useful to take a look at car and motorcycle sales because when people are confident about their financial situation and have enough money to spend then they tend to buy cars and motorcycles (motorcycles are particularly popular among Indonesia's huge middle to lower-middle class segment). Meanwhile, cement sales inform about property and infrastructure development. Property development is also closely related to purchasing power and consumer confidence because property development grows when people's demand for property rises.
The year 2015 was a sluggish year for Indonesia's cement industry amid the country's slowing economic growth. Total cement sales only rose 1.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 61 million tons, the slowest growth pace since 2009. In the first month of 2016, however, a positive sign was detected. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesian cement sales rose 4.4 percent (y/y) to 5.14 million tons in January 2016 (from the same month one year earlier) on the back of government-led infrastructure development.
As cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise nearly 10 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in 2016 on the back of government-led infrastructure development, investment growth and accelerating GDP growth, three cement producers are set to benefit. The three market leaders in Indonesia's cement industry that should see higher sales are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia.
Data terakhir dari Asosiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI) menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi semen di Indonesia menurun 3,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 22,9 juta ton di lima bulan pertama tahun 2015 (dari 23,8 juta ton semen di periode yang sama tahun lalu). Kejatuhan ini adalah penurunan paling tajam dalam konsumsi semen Indonesia sejak 2009 waktu permintaan jatuh hampir 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) karena dampak dari krisis finansial dunia. Penurunan saat ini disebabkan oleh perlambatan perekonomian Indonesia dan jatuhnya harga-harga komoditi di luar Jawa.
Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.
The year 2015 may be a good one for Indonesian cement makers. The Indonesian government under the leadership of Joko Widodo is eager to invest heavily in the country’s infrastructure as this is one of the main bottlenecks that blocks higher economic growth. In the Revised 2015 State Budget the central government set aside IDR 290.3 trillion (USD $22.3 billion) for infrastructure development. Surely, the country's large cement producers - Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Holcim Indonesia and Semen Baturaja - will benefit from this.
Indonesian stocks hit a record high on Thursday (22/01). Most emerging Asian stocks and currencies strengthened on increased speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is to launch a massive bond-buying program (which was confirmed later on the day after Asian markets had closed), a move aimed at boosting inflation in the Eurozone and which puts pressure on euro-denominated assets. The euro had depreciated 1.67 percent against the US dollar by 11:20 ET on Thursday based on Bloomberg data.
Indonesian cement sales jumped 37.4 percent (year-on-year) to 4.7 million tons in August 2014 due to higher cement demand from Indonesian property and infrastructure developers. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the development of smelters, power plants, apartments, hotels, and social housing has been key to improved cement sales last month. However, the 37.4 percentage point growth was also caused by fewer working days in August 2013 as the Lebaran holiday fell in that month.
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