A coalition of civil society groups is ready to challenge Indonesia's new mining rules at the Supreme Court next week, specifically those rules that impact negatively on the longstanding Contracts of Work (Kontrak Karya) as well as the (re-)opening of nickel ore and bauxite exports. Late last week, the Indonesian government announced to ease the controversial ban on exports of mineral ore. The government was immediately criticized for this "flip-flop policy". The move could flood global markets and put pressure on prices.

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The government of Indonesia revised rules regarding the ban on unprocessed ore exports. Originally, Southeast Asia's largest economy (a key exporter of natural resources) planned to ban exports of mineral ore per 12 January 2014 in a bid to encourage the development of domestic higher value smelting facilities (part of the New Mining Law that was unveiled in 2009). However, a three-year delay was announced (through a presidential regulation) on the evening before the ban would be imposed as local processing capacity was still insufficient. Now, three years later, there have been more revisions.

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Entrepreneurs in Indonesia urge the central government to provide clarity about the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals that is set to be implemented on 12 January 2017, provided the government will not alter its policy. Initially, the full ban would be introduced on 12 January 2014 in an effort to boost the downstream mining industries (hence becoming an exporter of mining products that are positioned higher in the value chain rather than remaining dependent on raw materials that are very vulnerable to volatile price movements).

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Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Luhut Pandjaitan informed local media that the government of Indonesia may allow more time for the nation's miners to build smelting facilities. Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining originally banned mineral ore exports from Indonesia by January 2014 (forcing miners to process the material domestically into value-added products first). However, due to the lack of adequate smelting facilities this ban was delayed by three years (January 2017).

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Production of heavy equipment in Indonesia continues to slide. In the first half of 2016 Indonesia produced a total of 1,471 heavy equipment units, down 35 percent (y/y) from 2,256 units in the same period one year earlier. Meanwhile, utilization of the nation's installed heavy equipment production capacity plunged from 40 percent to 30 percent over the same period. Overall, the heavy equipment sector of Indonesia has been plagued by weak conditions in the mining and agriculture sectors. The construction sector now forms the main source of heavy equipment sales.

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Again a big western mining company plans to exit Indonesia. US-based Newmont Mining Corp reportedly agreed to sell its 48.5 percent stake in copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara (the operator of the Batu Hijau mine) for USD $1.3 billion (including contingent payment of up to USD $403 million). The stake is set to be sold to Amman Mineral Internasional. Newmont Chief Executive Gary Goldberg said the move is in line with the company's commitment to lower debt and fund its higher margin mining projects in order to create value for shareholders.

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Business activities at Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), one of Indonesia’s largest copper miners, could be disrupted as the subsidiary of US-based mining company Newmont Mining Corp is yet to obtain a recommendation letter (from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry) to renew its 6-month copper concentrate export permit (which expired on 20 May 2016). The recommendation from the Energy Ministry is needed to obtain the export permit from Indonesia's Trade Ministry.

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Copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara, the local unit of US-based mining giant Newmont Mining Corp, requested for a new recommendation letter from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This recommendation letter is required to extend Newmont's six-month copper concentrate export permit at the nation's Trade Ministry. This would be the fourth time Newmont's export permit is extended. Whether Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry issues the export recommendation letter depends on progress made with the construction of smelting facilities.

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There is still no agreement between Indonesia and Freeport Indonesia regarding the sale of a 10.64 percent stake in Freeport Indonesia. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources objected to the USD $1.7 billion asking price for the stake in Freeport Indonesia, the local unit of US mining giant Freeport McMoRan. Based on Indonesian Government Regulation No. 77/2014 on the Implementation of Mineral and Coal Mining Business Activities, Freeport Indonesia is required to divest a 30 percent stake (to an Indonesian party) before 2019.

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Having been the center of negative attention for quite some years now, Indonesia's coal mining sector has given some room for speculation that conditions will improve. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and mostly based on the average of global coal prices, rose 1.3 percent (m/m) to USD $51.62 per ton in March 2016. Although it is much too early to start speculating about a sustained rebound, the increase is remarkable as it is the first time in exactly one year that the HBA manages to rise.

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, in effect since 12 January 2014, will result in slowing economic growth in several regions in the eastern part of Indonesia as these regions are main sources of mineral production. Doddy Zulverdi, Head of the Economic Assessment Group in Bank Indonesia's Department of Economic and Monetary Policy, said that Sulawesi and Kalimantan will post slowing economic growth this year.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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The BKPM announced that three processing and mineral concentrate refineries (smelters) are in the construction phase and expected to be ready for production in Indonesia this year. Two of the three smelters will process and purify iron ore while the third will process bauxite ore into chemical grade alumina. The three smelters are owned by Indonesia Chemical Alumina. This company, a joint venture between Aneka Tambang (Antam) and Japan, operates in West Kalimantan.

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On Sunday (12/01), one of the most important new laws in the recent history of Indonesia came in force. Mining Law Nr.4/2009, which prohibits the export of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, was implemented. However, it was not implemented in its original form. The president of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, signed a last-minute regulation which softens the impact of the new law by allowing mining companies to continue exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead and iron ore concentrate until 2017.

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Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is scheduled to take effect on 12 January 2014, is expected to lead to a temporary slowdown of Indonesia's total exports and thus will put more pressure on the country's current account deficit. Despite two consecutive months with trade surpluses (October and November 2013), Indonesia's wide current account deficit is still a concern to investors as well as the government although the deficit has shown an easing trend in recent quarters.

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After having reported yesterday (26/12) that Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, stipulated in Mining Law No.4/2009 (which is set to become in force from 12 January 2014), may be delayed, more and more signs are pointing towards a postponement of this law. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jero Wacik, said that the government is considering to delay the implementation of the law by two or three years as the ban will cause increased unemployment and the cease of mining operations.

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Asep Sugiharta, an official at the Ministry of Forestry, said that a new bill has been submitted to Indonesia's parliament (DPR) which is expected to open up the potential for geothermal power development in Indonesia. Currently, geothermal exploitation is lawfully defined as a 'mining activity' (Law No. 27 2003) and therefore prohibited to be conducted in protected forest and conservation areas (Law No. 41 1999), even though geothermal mining activities have a relatively small impact on the environment (compared to other mining activities).

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Starting from 12 January 2014, the export of all mineral-ores are banned in Indonesia. This controversial new policy, stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (on Minerals and Coal Mining), was agreed upon by the nine fractions in Commission VII of the Indonesian parliament (DPR). Through this new law, the government intends to increase the value of exports while reducing dependence on raw exports and thus becoming less vulnerable to price downswings on the global commodities market.

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