A coalition of civil society groups is ready to challenge Indonesia's new mining rules at the Supreme Court next week, specifically those rules that impact negatively on the longstanding Contracts of Work (Kontrak Karya) as well as the (re-)opening of nickel ore and bauxite exports. Late last week, the Indonesian government announced to ease the controversial ban on exports of mineral ore. The government was immediately criticized for this "flip-flop policy". The move could flood global markets and put pressure on prices.

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The government of Indonesia revised rules regarding the ban on unprocessed ore exports. Originally, Southeast Asia's largest economy (a key exporter of natural resources) planned to ban exports of mineral ore per 12 January 2014 in a bid to encourage the development of domestic higher value smelting facilities (part of the New Mining Law that was unveiled in 2009). However, a three-year delay was announced (through a presidential regulation) on the evening before the ban would be imposed as local processing capacity was still insufficient. Now, three years later, there have been more revisions.

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Entrepreneurs in Indonesia urge the central government to provide clarity about the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals that is set to be implemented on 12 January 2017, provided the government will not alter its policy. Initially, the full ban would be introduced on 12 January 2014 in an effort to boost the downstream mining industries (hence becoming an exporter of mining products that are positioned higher in the value chain rather than remaining dependent on raw materials that are very vulnerable to volatile price movements).

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Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Luhut Pandjaitan informed local media that the government of Indonesia may allow more time for the nation's miners to build smelting facilities. Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining originally banned mineral ore exports from Indonesia by January 2014 (forcing miners to process the material domestically into value-added products first). However, due to the lack of adequate smelting facilities this ban was delayed by three years (January 2017).

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Production of heavy equipment in Indonesia continues to slide. In the first half of 2016 Indonesia produced a total of 1,471 heavy equipment units, down 35 percent (y/y) from 2,256 units in the same period one year earlier. Meanwhile, utilization of the nation's installed heavy equipment production capacity plunged from 40 percent to 30 percent over the same period. Overall, the heavy equipment sector of Indonesia has been plagued by weak conditions in the mining and agriculture sectors. The construction sector now forms the main source of heavy equipment sales.

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Again a big western mining company plans to exit Indonesia. US-based Newmont Mining Corp reportedly agreed to sell its 48.5 percent stake in copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara (the operator of the Batu Hijau mine) for USD $1.3 billion (including contingent payment of up to USD $403 million). The stake is set to be sold to Amman Mineral Internasional. Newmont Chief Executive Gary Goldberg said the move is in line with the company's commitment to lower debt and fund its higher margin mining projects in order to create value for shareholders.

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Business activities at Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), one of Indonesia’s largest copper miners, could be disrupted as the subsidiary of US-based mining company Newmont Mining Corp is yet to obtain a recommendation letter (from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry) to renew its 6-month copper concentrate export permit (which expired on 20 May 2016). The recommendation from the Energy Ministry is needed to obtain the export permit from Indonesia's Trade Ministry.

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Copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara, the local unit of US-based mining giant Newmont Mining Corp, requested for a new recommendation letter from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This recommendation letter is required to extend Newmont's six-month copper concentrate export permit at the nation's Trade Ministry. This would be the fourth time Newmont's export permit is extended. Whether Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry issues the export recommendation letter depends on progress made with the construction of smelting facilities.

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There is still no agreement between Indonesia and Freeport Indonesia regarding the sale of a 10.64 percent stake in Freeport Indonesia. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources objected to the USD $1.7 billion asking price for the stake in Freeport Indonesia, the local unit of US mining giant Freeport McMoRan. Based on Indonesian Government Regulation No. 77/2014 on the Implementation of Mineral and Coal Mining Business Activities, Freeport Indonesia is required to divest a 30 percent stake (to an Indonesian party) before 2019.

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Having been the center of negative attention for quite some years now, Indonesia's coal mining sector has given some room for speculation that conditions will improve. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and mostly based on the average of global coal prices, rose 1.3 percent (m/m) to USD $51.62 per ton in March 2016. Although it is much too early to start speculating about a sustained rebound, the increase is remarkable as it is the first time in exactly one year that the HBA manages to rise.

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Over the past decade we have seen some examples of protectionist tendencies in the mining sector of Indonesia. For example, gold and copper miner Freeport Indonesia came under Indonesian control in late-2018 after the state acquired a 52.1 percent stake in the company as a consequence of renegotiations (which also involved the extension of the company’s mining permits in Indonesia).

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On 10 June 2023 the Indonesian government imposed a ban on bauxite ore exports in a bid to encourage the development of a domestic bauxite processing and refining industry. This move was not a surprise. Over the past couple of years, government officials had mentioned their desire to ban bauxite ore exports from June 2023. And in December 2022 it was Indonesian President Joko Widodo himself who reaffirmed this ambition.

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On 21 December 2022 Indonesian President Joko Widodo stated that the Indonesian government will ban exports of bauxite ore starting from June 2023 in an effort to encourage the development of a domestic bauxite processing and refining industry.

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“After the nickel ore ban [imposed in January 2020], we focus on bauxite this year [2022]. And after bauxite, we will go for tin and copper. We have to dare to take these steps!”

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In recent times, commodities have been ‘hot’. The rebound in economic activity after the COVID-19 pandemic (in combination with disrupted supply and logistics chains) started a high commodity price cycle. This cycle that was subsequently strengthened by the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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Whenever Indonesia Investments discusses or illustrates the risks that are involved in Indonesia’s investment environment, we usually take the 2009 Mining Law as an example to illustrate the lack of legal certainty in Indonesia. Lack of legal certainty is one the key obstacles in Indonesia’s investment environment, and has therefore been undermining investment realization in Indonesia.

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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After years of struggle and negotiations there now seems light at the end of the tunnel for the Indonesian government and US mining giant Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Both sides signed a Head of Agreement on Thursday 12 July 2018 that will give Indonesia’s state-owned mining company Indonesia Asahan Aluminum (better known as Inalum) and the local government of Papua a 51.23 percent stake in Freeport Indonesia, implying the company - the operator of the Grasberg mine, which is the world’s largest gold mine and second-largest copper mine – will come under Indonesian control.

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One of the companies, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, that is experiencing a very good performance so far in 2018 is vertically integrated and diversified mining and metals company Aneka Tambang, a state-controlled entity. Not only did the company's corporate earnings and production figures surged in the first quarter of 2018 on the back of stronger commodity prices (and rising demand), but shares of Aneka Tambang also soared - by a whopping 45.60 percent - up to Friday (22/06).

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Indonesian heavy equipment distributor Intraco Penta is optimistic that its corporate earnings will improve in 2018 and 2019 on the back of rising coal prices and the so-called "replacement cycle". Ferdinand Dion, Investor Relations Strategist at Intraco Penta, said every five years mining companies tend to replace those heavy equipment units that have been consistently used for the past five years.

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