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The coal price is expected to rise in the remainder of this year as China seems eager to limit domestic coal output, while global coal demand is predicted to rise in the second half of 2017. After a steep decline in May, coal prices have been recovering in June. So far this month, coal prices rallied around 10 percent to slightly above USD $80 per ton (Newcastle index, July contracts).
Fully state-owned Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), which holds a monopoly on electricity distribution in Indonesia, will soon acquire coal mining concessions in order to safeguard its future coal supplies and have a stronger position when negotiating coal prices with traders. PLN's power plants are estimated to require slightly more than 88 million tons in 2017, hence being the country's largest coal consumer.
Despite seeing a supply surplus in Asia, coal prices are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future supported by expectations of Chinese intervention into domestic coal production. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal and therefore the main determinant of the coal price. On Friday (19/05), the Newcastle coal index (May 2017 contracts) rose 0.27 percent to USD $74.25 per ton.
Good news for Indonesian coal producers. Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) continued to rise. The May 2017 HBA was set at USD $83.81 per metric ton, up 1.6 percent from the price that was set in the preceding month. The HBA, which is based on a selection of domestic and international coal indices, is set on a monthly basis by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.
For the third consecutive month Indonesia's benchmark coal price declined. This price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), which is based on a selection of domestic and international coal indices, is set on a monthly basis by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. For March 2017, the HBA was set at USD $81.90 per metric ton, down 19.5 percent from its recent peak of USD $101.69 per ton in December 2016.
The benchmark thermal coal price of Indonesia (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), the a monthly price that is set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, and which is based on a selection of domestic and international coal indices - continued to slide in the new year. The HBA fell 3.4 percent to USD $83.32 per metric ton in February 2017. Since the recent peak of USD $101.67 per metric ton in December 2016, the HBA price has now plunged 18 percent over the past two months.
The only body acting internationally on behalf of coal, the World Coal Association (WCA), announced on Thursday (12/01) that Indonesian coal mining company Berau Coal Energy has joined its membership. Berau Coal is Indonesia's fifth-largest coal producer with an estimated 509 million tons of coal reserves. Berau was established in 1983 and now operates three mines in Lati, Binungan and Sambarata, all located on the island of Kalimantan.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says worldwide demand for coal will not grow significantly over the next five years. It sees worldwide coal demand in 2021 roughly at the same level as in 2014. In a report published on Monday (12/12) the agency says it detects rising demand for renewable energy sources (at the expense of coal) in Europe and North America, while in China coal consumption is also expected to stagnate. However, the IEA believes that coal will remain the most important energy source as it is cheap and easy to produce.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will prepare new regulations regarding coal production in the regions. Usually, local coal miners, together, produce much more coal than what is targeted by the central government. By implementing stricter regulations and better monitoring (by enhanced coordination between the central and regional governments) there should be less opportunities for Indonesian coal miners to produce excess supply in the future.
Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) - a monthly price that is set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - continued its impressive rally. In December 2016 the HBA was set at USD $101.69 per metric ton, up nearly 20 percent from the HBA in the preceding month. It is now at its highest level since May 2012. Moreover, price growth between November and December was the steepest monthly rise ever in the history of the HBA.
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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) suspended trading of the shares of coal miner Bumi Resources between 1 July and 4 October 2016 because the company had not reported its financial report (covering the corporate earnings of 2015) in time. On Tuesday (04/10) Bumi Resources, part of the controversial Bakrie Group conglomerate, finally announced that it recorded a net loss of USD $1.9 billion over 2015. This poor performance was mainly attributed to the impairment of assets and write-offs for its receivables.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will soon issue a moratorium on new coal mining concessions. This moratorium will be implemented after the issuance of a planned presidential instruction regarding a five-year moratorium on new palm oil plantation concessions. Heriyanto, Head of the Legal Department Directorate General of Minerals and Coal at the Energy Ministry, emphasized that the moratorium in Indonesia's mining industry only involves coal, not the mining of minerals.
Domestic coal consumption in Indonesia rose 34.5 percent (y/y) to 24.5 million tons in the January-April 2016 period, according to data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This growth is caused by higher domestic coal demand due to Indonesia's ambitious 35,000 MW program (many of the power plants constructed in this program are coal-fired). Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal exports were down 14 percent (y/y) to 68 million metric tons over the same period amid sluggish global demand.
State-controlled coal mining company Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam may be the only Indonesian coal producer that will post higher sales in 2016, both in terms of volume and revenue. The nation's other coal miners are expected to see further dropping coal sales due to sluggish global demand although coal prices may stabilize this year. According to Trimegah Securities Bukit Asam's coal sales volume will rise 25 percent (y/y) to 23.9 million tons in 2016, while revenue is estimated to rise 9 percent (y/y) to IDR 15 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion), and coal mining operational costs to fall by 3 percent (y/y) to USD $39.8 per ton.
Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.
In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.
The government of Indonesia is eager to use current low coal prices as the context to push for consolidation in the country’s coal mining sector. Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, announced that the government may revoke over 4,000 troubled mining licenses this month and install a better licensing system. Licenses that may be revoked are Mining Business Permits (IUPs), not the long-standing Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) that are held by companies such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy.
On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).
The government of Indonesia plans to raise royalties for coal mining companies that hold a Mining Business Permit (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, abbreviated IUP) by revising Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue in a move to generate more state income. R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the domestic coal industry remains a vital source of state income, particularly amid diminished mineral exports.
Bumi Resources, a leading Indonesian coal mining company, came close to default on its USD $300 million November 2016 bond before paying an overdue coupon earlier this week. The company, which is in the hands of the controversial Bakrie family, is obliged to make two coupon payments per year but postponed payment due on 12 May 2014 in order to negotiate with its creditors and lenders. According to a statement of Bumi Resources Director Dileep Srivastava, the payment was done on 11 June 2014.
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