Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Indonesia mengharapkan pengiriman batubara ke India meningkat pada tahun 2016, sementara ekspor batubara ke Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) diperkirakan akan menurun lebih lanjut karena ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini sedang mengalami perlambatan (dan RRT membatasi impor batubara dengan tingkat kalori yang lebih rendah). Adhi Wibowo, Direktur Batu Bara Kementerian ESDM, mengatakan - berlawanan dengan RRT - permintaan batubara dari India tidak turun. Selain itu, India sangat tergantung pada Indonesia untuk batubara termal.

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Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), harga referensi batubara termal yang ditetapkan oleh Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, melemah 1,69% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 53,51 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) pada bulan Desember 2015, menyentuh level terendah baru dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai diberlakukan pada Januari 2009. Supriatna Suhala, Direktur Eksekutif Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (APBI), mengatakan harga batubara rendah disebabkan oleh banjir pasokan global dikombinasikan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu.

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The coal price will have serious difficulty to rise as long as crude oil prices remain low and China's economy remains in slowdown-mode. Weak global oil prices (expected to remain below USD $40 per barrel this month) - and the strong US dollar amid looming US monetary tightening - give a bad signal to other commodities, including coal, while the world's largest energy consumer China is struggling to combat its economic slowdown implying limited global coal demand.

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On 29 November 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on inflation, the palm oil industry, purchasing power, the coal mining industry, IPOs, radical Islam, sustainable finance, the timber industry, and more.

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New York-based credit rating firm Moody’s Investors Service expects global economic factors to have less of a negative impact on Indonesian companies in 2016. In its latest report titled "Non-Financial Corporates - Indonesia: 2016 Outlook - Corporate Profits under Pressure but Likely to Stabilize" it states that amid stabilizing economic growth and the recently unveiled government stimulus packages, companies should manage to improve their corporate performances in 2016.

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The trading of shares of Indonesian coal miner Golden Eagle Energy has been suspended for the second time this month by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) on Wednesday (25/11) after the company's share price plunged nearly 76 percent since 2 November 2015. Irvan Susandy, Chief of Transaction Supervision at the IDX, said share trading had to be suspended as Golden Eagle Energy, a subsidiary of Rajawali Corpora, has not provided any information to the IDX that could explain its recent stock performance.

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Indonesia akan gagal untuk mencapai target produksi batubaranya yaitu 425 juta ton di tahun 2015 karena para penambang batubara di negara ini telah memotong produksinya kira-kira 20%. Perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara domestik memotong hasil produksi batubara karena harga batubara yang terus-menerus rendah yang menyebabkan arus kas negatif bagi banyak penambang. Harga batubara global telah menurun karena kelebihan suplai dan permintaan global yang melemah akibat lambannya pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Ekspor batubara Indonesia diprediksi akan jatuh menjadi di bawah 300 juta ton di 2016 karena para penambang domestik memotong volume produksi batubara karena rendahnya harga batubara. Harga referensi batubara termal pada bulan Oktober di Indonesia (ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah) jatuh 1,4% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 57,39 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) dan kini ada pada level terendah dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai ditetapkan pada Januari 2009. Sementara itu, harga batubara acuan global nyaris menyentuh level terendah dalam sembilan tahun terakhir.

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Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) was set at USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, down 1.4 percent (m/m) from the preceding month and down 14.7 percent (y/y) from the same month last year. The October coal price is now at an all-time record low since the start of the government’s reference price in January 2009.

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) suspended trading of the shares of coal miner Bumi Resources between 1 July and 4 October 2016 because the company had not reported its financial report (covering the corporate earnings of 2015) in time. On Tuesday (04/10) Bumi Resources, part of the controversial Bakrie Group conglomerate, finally announced that it recorded a net loss of USD $1.9 billion over 2015. This poor performance was mainly attributed to the impairment of assets and write-offs for its receivables.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will soon issue a moratorium on new coal mining concessions. This moratorium will be implemented after the issuance of a planned presidential instruction regarding a five-year moratorium on new palm oil plantation concessions. Heriyanto, Head of the Legal Department Directorate General of Minerals and Coal at the Energy Ministry, emphasized that the moratorium in Indonesia's mining industry only involves coal, not the mining of minerals.

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Domestic coal consumption in Indonesia rose 34.5 percent (y/y) to 24.5 million tons in the January-April 2016 period, according to data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This growth is caused by higher domestic coal demand due to Indonesia's ambitious 35,000 MW program (many of the power plants constructed in this program are coal-fired). Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal exports were down 14 percent (y/y) to 68 million metric tons over the same period amid sluggish global demand.

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State-controlled coal mining company Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam may be the only Indonesian coal producer that will post higher sales in 2016, both in terms of volume and revenue. The nation's other coal miners are expected to see further dropping coal sales due to sluggish global demand although coal prices may stabilize this year. According to Trimegah Securities Bukit Asam's coal sales volume will rise 25 percent (y/y) to 23.9 million tons in 2016, while revenue is estimated to rise 9 percent (y/y) to IDR 15 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion), and coal mining operational costs to fall by 3 percent (y/y) to USD $39.8 per ton.

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Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.

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In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.

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The government of Indonesia is eager to use current low coal prices as the context to push for consolidation in the country’s coal mining sector. Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, announced that the government may revoke over 4,000 troubled mining licenses this month and install a better licensing system. Licenses that may be revoked are Mining Business Permits (IUPs), not the long-standing Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) that are held by companies such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy.

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On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).

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The government of Indonesia plans to raise royalties for coal mining companies that hold a Mining Business Permit (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, abbreviated IUP) by revising Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue in a move to generate more state income. R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the domestic coal industry remains a vital source of state income, particularly amid diminished mineral exports.

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Bumi Resources, a leading Indonesian coal mining company, came close to default on its USD $300 million November 2016 bond before paying an overdue coupon earlier this week. The company, which is in the hands of the controversial Bakrie family, is obliged to make two coupon payments per year but postponed payment due on 12 May 2014 in order to negotiate with its creditors and lenders. According to a statement of Bumi Resources Director Dileep Srivastava, the payment was done on 11 June 2014.

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