Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said that it expects the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate to trade between IDR 11,600 and IDR 11,800 per US dollar throughout the fiscal year of 2014. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo said that this assumption is based on pressures that originate from Indonesia's current account deficit. In 2013, the current account deficit hit USD $29.09 billion, or 3.33 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). The current account balance has a major influence on the performance of a currency.

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After already having warned in April 2013 that Indonesian telecommunications operator Bakrie Telecom is likely to default on its debt and is in need to restructure its USD $380 million senior unsecured bonds due in May 2015, Fitch Ratings downgraded the company's long term foreign- and local currency issuer default rating to Restricted Default (RD) from C (highly vulnerable) on Friday (30/05). Bakrie Telecom (BTEL) is a subsidiary of the controversial and politically-linked Bakrie & Brothers holding company.

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According to Indonesian Finance Ministry’s State Bond Director Loto Srinaita Ginting, the government of Indonesia intends to issue more than USD $500 million worth of samurai bonds in the fourth quarter of 2014. Samurai bonds are yen-denominated bonds. However, Ginting provided no further details about the bonds issuance. The Finance Ministry also plans to issue IDR 20 trillion (USD $1.7 billion) worth of domestic retail bonds in September 2014 (but these bonds are only available to Indonesians).

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Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) announced that it is studying the requests of seven Indonesian companies to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the first semester (January-June) of 2014. If the OJK grants permission to these requests, it means that 17 companies will have conducted an IPO on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the first half of 2014. In total, 30 new company listings are expected on the IDX in 2014.

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Express Transindo Utama, the second-largest taxi operator in Indonesia (after the Blue Bird Group), targets to raise IDR 1 trillion (USD $88 million) through the issuance of three- and five-year bonds in the months ahead. Proceeds of this issuance will be used to finance further business expansion of the company, which includes the purchase of new taxi units. President Director of Express Daniel Podiman said that BCA Sekuritas, Mandiri Sekuritas and Valbury Asia Securities were appointed to assist the debt sale.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said that the country's private debt has increased steadily in recent years. On the one hand this is a good sign as it indicates that the private sector is growing, but on the other hand the lender of last resort warned Indonesian companies to watch over their foreign loans as it can jeopardize the country’s financial stability. Private sector foreign debt doubled between 2009 and 2013, reaching USD $141.4 billion in January 2014. Meanwhile, public debt stood at the level of USD $127.9 billion in the same month.

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According to a recent survey of Schroder Investment Management Indonesia, subsidiary of the British multinational asset management firm and a leading independent international asset management and private banking group, Indonesian investors feel more confident to invest in Indonesia in 2014. Director of Schroder Indonesia Michael Tjoajadi stated that confidence of Indonesian investors has increased due to improving economic conditions and the long-term prospects of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Foreign debt of Indonesia totaled USD $264 billion per December 2013. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia, 46.8 percent of this total debt was accounted for by the public sector, while the remaining 53.2 percent was private sector debt. On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, growth of Indonesia’s total debt slowed to 4.06 percent in the last month of 2013. One year earlier this growth was significantly higher at 12.0 percent. Indonesia’s level of foreign debt is still safe at 30.2 percent of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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Today (21/01), the government of Indonesia auctions rupiah-denominated state bonds of IDR 10 billion (USD $833 million) in order to reap funds to finance targets set in the government's 2014 state budget (APBN 2014). The bonds, involving the new issuance of SPN12150108 and re-openings of series FR0069, FR0070, and FR0071, have a nominal value of IDR 1 million each. Series SPN12150108 is issued at a discount yield. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) organizes the auction using a multiple price method.

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On Thursday (09/01), the US dollar appreciated after the release of the minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting as well as positive US employment data. The minutes show that Federal Reserve policy makers are confident that the economy is strong enough to start scaling back its quantitative easing program, although the minutes do not provide a clear schedule about the tapering. Yesterday (08/01), it was also released that private-sector payrolls increased by 238,000 positions in December 2013.

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The government of Indonesia plans to sell another series of sharia-compliant government retail bonds (in Indonesian: Sukuk Negara Ritel, abbreviated Sukri). The offering period is planned for 4 February - 2 March 2017. However, Suminto, Islamic Financing Director at the Budget Financing and Risk Management Office within Indonesia's Finance Ministry, did not inform about the indicative target for this issuance. He only informed local media that the target of the bond issuance will be in line with the government's financing needs and existing market conditions.

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The Indonesian government sold €3 billion worth of euro-denominated bonds (Surat Utang Negara, or SUN) on Tuesday (07/06) consisting of €1.5 billion of 7-year tenure bonds with a yield of 2.772 percent and €1.5 billion of 12-year tenure bonds with a yield of 3.906 percent. Combined, the issuance was oversubscribed 1.79 times with a total book order for the dual-trance bonds at €8.36 billion. Robert Pakpahan, Director General of Financing and Risk Management at Indonesia's Finance Ministry, said funds will be used to finance the 2016 budget deficit, which is expected to widen to 2.48 percent of GDP.

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One of Indonesia's long standing companies - and also one of the most controversial ones in Indonesia - Bakrie & Brothers plans to offer part of its shares to creditors Mitsubishi Corporation, Glencore International, and Eurofa Capital Investment in a debt for equity swap. This plan is part of the company's efforts to restructure USD $453 million worth of debt through mandatory convertible bonds. Indra Ginting, Chief Investor Relation Officer at Bakrie & Brothers, confirmed the company owes Mitsubishi USD $150 million, Glencore USD $200 million, and Eurofa Capital USD $103 million.

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In the past two weeks, two of the big international credit rating agencies released new reports about Indonesia's fiscal situation. Both agencies affirmed Indonesia's sovereign debt rating: Fitch Ratings kept Indonesia at BBB-/stable (investment grade class) and Standard & Poor's (S&P) maintained Indonesia at BB+/positive (highest junk level, one notch below investment grade). S&P's decision to keep Indonesia within the junk level category was met with disappointment among investors and Indonesian government officials but perhaps not that surprisingly.

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There is strong demand for Indonesia's sharia-compliant government retail bonds (in Indonesian: Sukuk Negara Ritel, abbreviated Sukri). Since the launch of series SR-008 on Friday (19/02), a number of sales agents have run out of quota. These financial institutions now request additional quota from the government. The three year SR-008 series carries a fixed coupon of 8.3 percent per year (and is tradable on the secondary market). The government of Indonesia targets to collect up to IDR 30 trillion (approx. USD $2.2 billion) in funds from the issuance. Sukri bonds are only available to Indonesian citizens.

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Some concern has been raised about the inflow of foreign 'hot money' into Indonesia amid accomodative monetary policies conducted by central banks of the Eurozone and Japan (the latter implemented negative interest rates in late-January). The world's carry traders are now seeking cheap funds in advanced economies and invest these funds in assets that have attractive returns such as Indonesian bonds and stocks. Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is still relatively high at 7.0 percent after a 25 basis points cut at Bank Indonesia's February 2016 policy meeting.

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American financial services company Standard & Poor's warns that defaults by Indonesian companies are a serious threat over the next 18 months given their eroded balance sheets amid the country's current economic slowdown. The warning came after Indonesian mobile phone retailer Trikomsel Oke announced plans to restructure about USD $155 million worth of debt as it may not be capable to meet obligations indefinitely.

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Indonesian food company Tiga Pilar Sejahtera, a market leader in the country’s dry vermicelli and dry noodles segments, considers to acquire two food companies in Malaysia and Vietnam in a move to expand business beyond the Indonesian borders. Sjambiri Lioe, Finance Director at Tiga Pilar Sejahtera, said that the company (which is listed under ticker symbol AISA) has set aside a total of USD $80 million for this acquisition. He refrained from mentioning the names of the targeted Asian companies.

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Untuk memperkuat basis investor domestik dan memenuhi pembiayaan APBN-P 2014, pemerintah Indonesia kembali menawarkan Obligasi Negara Ritel Indonesia (ORI). Ini adalah kali ke-11, pemerintah menerbitkan ORI sejak obligasi tersebut diluncurkan pada tahun 2006. ORI berseri ORI011 tersebut mulai ditawarkan pada 1-16 Oktober 2014. Tingkat  kupon yang ditawarkan ORI011 sebesar 8,5% dengan tenor selama tiga tahun. Minimum pemesanan yang diperbolehkan adalah Rp5 juta sementara maksimum pemesanan adalah Rp3 miliar per individu.

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US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reminded global investors to prepare for a sooner-than-expected US interest rate hike (Fed Funds Rate, FFR) provided that the economy of the USA - the world’s largest economy - continues its improving trend. In fact, speculation has emerged that the FFR will be raised before the end of 2014 although Yellen stated more than once that the ‘close-to-zero’ interest rate environment would be maintained for a considerable period after the US bond-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended.

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