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Berita Hari Ini COVID-19
At its latest monetary policy meeting, completed on 18 February 2021, Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repurchase rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50 percent, a historically low level for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Also the deposit facility and lending facility rates were cut by 25 bps to 2.75 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively.
Indonesia started the year with another comfortable trade surplus. In January 2021 the country posted a trade surplus of USD $1.96 billion. Since May 2020 Indonesia has been recording an impressive series of big trade surpluses, each month. This is a positive matter for the country’s current account balance and the rupiah rate (and thus also supports risk appetite in the capital markets).
On 5 February 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia’s largest economy contracted 2.19 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was less severe compared to Indonesia Investments’ outlook of -2.50 percent (y/y).
On Friday 05 February 2021 Indonesia Investments released its January 2021 report. The report zooms in on key economic, political, and social developments in Indonesia in January 2021. Special attention is given to Indonesia's COVID-19 immunization program (do we expect to see setbacks?), household consumption amid the COVID-19 restrictions, the Sriwijaya Air crash, and Indonesian demographics.
Unfortunately Indonesia is no stranger to fatal aircraft accidents. And unfortunately, disaster struck again on Saturday 9 January 2021 when Sriwijaya Air Flight 182, a scheduled domestic passenger flight flying from Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta to Pontianak (West Kalimantan), crashed in the Java Sea some four minutes after take-off from Soekarno-Hatta International Airport.
Indonesia posted a USD $21.74 billion trade surplus in full-year 2020. This is a great recovery from the USD $3.59 billion trade deficit the country saw one year earlier.
On 6 January 2021, Airlangga Hartarto, Chairman of the Committee for the Handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic and National Economic Recovery (KPC-PEN), announced that a number of regions across the densely populated islands of Java and Bali are to impose tougher social and business restrictions between 11 and 25 January 2021.
Indonesia’s December 2020 headline inflation accelerated slightly more than we had expected. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) this is particularly caused by rising food prices in the context of Christmas and New Year celebrations.
On 22 December 2020 Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced that several ministers in his Onward Indonesia Cabinet (in Indonesian: Kabinet Indonesia Maju) were replaced in order to improve the performance of the cabinet. This message was no surprise as rumors about an upcoming cabinet reshuffle had grown increasingly strong over the preceding week.
Ever since the very start of the global COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, Indonesia has been recording a series of big trade surpluses each month. On the one hand, it is a welcome surprise as big monthly trade surpluses relieve pressures on Indonesia’s current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
Artikel Terbaru COVID-19
On 5 May 2020 Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), a non-departmental government agency, released the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia for the year 2020. These data were highly anticipated as policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders are particularly interested in finding out to what extent damage has been done to the Indonesian economy by the self-imposed restrictions.
The economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are becoming increasingly clear and frightening. All the self-imposed restrictions on business and social behavior, taken by governments across the world, may protect people’s health to a significant extent, but the policy measures also have devastating economic and social consequences as economic activity nosedives, and businesses collapse. This results in unprecedented mass layoffs as well as growing poverty.
It is less than one week before the celebration of an important Islamic religious holiday: Eid al-Fitr, commonly known as “Lebaran” in Indonesia. It is a day to glorify renewed hope. And, just like other religious days, it is a very essential day, and the most momentous celebration of the year in Indonesia.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has caused something extraordinary in Indonesia, and in the world; something we had not seen – in the case of Indonesia –since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s, namely: a sudden and dramatic drop in household consumption and business activity. Due to government policies, designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in the country and thereby safeguarding people’s health, the movement of people is heavily restricted, while companies in a wide range of sectors have had to close their doors (until further notice).
In mid-April 2020 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest ‘World Economic Outlook’ report. It is in fact not a complete report. Considering the global economy has changed dramatically over the past months, the IMF’s previous update of the World Economic Outlook (released in January 2020) simply had no validity anymore, and therefore the IMF released one new chapter in mid-April 2020 (with the full report set to follow in May 2020).
Besides imposing restrictions and offering stimuli to affected people and businesses, the Indonesian government made another important decision with reference to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Through Presidential Decree No. 12/2020 on the Determination of COVID-19 as a Non-Natural Disaster, signed by President Widodo on 13 April 2020, the novel coronavirus was declared a ‘national disaster’.
The Indonesian rupiah, which had been under heavy pressure in March 2020 amid novel coronavirus (COVID-19) panic, rebounded in April 2020 (albeit policymakers emphasize that the Indonesian rupiah remains undervalued at the moment).
Better late than never! On 10 April 2020 large-scale social restrictions were imposed in the capital city of Jakarta through Jakarta Gubernatorial Regulation No. 33/2020, and Jakarta Gubernatorial Decree No. 380/2020. The regulation and decree, which both aim at curtailing the further spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Jakarta, were imposed around five weeks after the very first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Indonesia (namely in Depok, a city located within the Jakarta metropolitan area).
The first of May is celebrated as International Labors’ Day which should be a tribute to workers’ contributions to the flourishment and well-being of a country’s economic growth. However, today, there are more than 2 million workers in Indonesia being laid off and placed on furlough due to economic disruption caused by COVID-19 outbreak.
After the surprise in February 2020 (when – contrary to expectations and in stark contrast to the global trend – manufacturing activity in Indonesia soared), matters turned normal in March 2020. In line with expectations, Indonesia’s manufacturing production and new orders contracted at record rates in March, making companies decide to cut back sharply on their purchasing activity and input inventories. Business conditions in fact deteriorated at a rate not seen before in the history of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey.
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