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Berita Hari Ini Manufacturing
During the COVID-19 crisis, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity experienced extreme lows in Q2-2020 and Q3-2020 before entering a period of fragile recovery. But when the Indonesian government tightened social and business restrictions at the start of July 2021, manufacturing activity again plunged.
Between November 2020 and June 2021 we saw Indonesia’s manufacturing sector recovering from the ultra-lows that were recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.
Starting from November 2020 the manufacturing sector of Indonesia had shown a gradual recovery after the unprecedented collapse in Q2-2020. It proved to be a very superficial recovery.
It is positive that Indonesia’s manufacturing activity not only kept momentum going in April 2021, but even managed to gain momentum with the IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showing a reading of 54.6 points in April 2021, up from 53.2 points in the preceding month (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction).
In August 2020 we were positively surprised as Indonesia’s manufacturing activity managed to expand (after experiencing five straight months of contraction) despite the country still being in the middle of the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis.
While Indonesia’s manufacturing activity has remained contracting in July 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 crisis that seriously disrupts consumption, production and trade flows, the positive news is that the rate of contraction eased significantly.
On Wednesday (05/08/2020) Indonesia Investments released the July 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'A Modest Rebound', we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Indonesian economy, Indonesia's automotive industry, and a range of other topics.
Indonesia’s latest manufacturing data showed that the contraction in manufacturing activity has continued in June 2020, but the level of contraction was not as bad as in the past two months. This is in line with our forecast as the Indonesian government gradually allowed the Indonesian economy to reopen in June 2020.
As expected, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity contracted again in May 2020, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The latest IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (or PMI) rose to a reading of 28.6 points in May 2020, up from the all-time low of 27.5 in April 2020. A reading below 50.0 indicates contraction in the country’s manufacturing activity, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion.
Never before did Indonesia’s manufacturing activity collapse so badly in the nine-year history of the IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI than in April 2020. The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plunged to a reading of 27.5 in April 2020 (from 45.3 in the preceding month). It is not only the steepest fall but also the lowest level of operating conditions ever touched since the survey started back in April 2011.
Artikel Terbaru Manufacturing
Overall, market participants are satisfied with Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2017. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) released the nation's official first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday (05/05). It showed a 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace in Q1-2017, in line with - and even above some institutions' - expectations. Moreover, the figure confirms that Indonesia's economic growth continues to accelerate. In the first quarters of 2015 and 2016 GDP growth was recorded at 4.71 percent (y/y) and 4.92 percent (y/y), respectively.
In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.
The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan hari ini (01/09) bahwa inflasi Indonesia telah sedikit menurun menjadi 7,18% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Agustus 2015, dari 7,26% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya. Pada basis month-on-month, inflasi naik 0,39% di bulan Agustus, di bawah perkiraan para analis. Sementara itu, sektor manufaktur Indonesia terus berkontraksi di bulan Agustus, meskipun kondisinya membaik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.
One of the key strategies to improve the economic fundamentals of Indonesia is to restructure and strengthen the country’s exports. This restructuring involves the transformation of Indonesian exports from being dominated by (raw) commodities to manufactured exports by developing downstream industries in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, including import substitution industrialization in order to curb the country’s demand for imported products amid Indonesians’ rising purchasing power.
Walaupun pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bergerak lebih lambat pada tahun 2014, terlihat optimisme bahwa pertumbuhan tersebut akan rebound pada tahun 2015 meskipun kondisi ekonomi global belum kondusif (dan membatasi kinerja ekspor Indonesia) serta lingkungan suku bunga Indonesia yang masih tinggi. Bank Indonesia menaikkan BI rate beberapa kali selama satu setengah tahun terakhir dalam upaya untuk mencegah inflasi tinggi (yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga BBM subsidi), menghambat aliran keluar modal menjelang pengetatan moneter AS, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan dan mendukung nilai rupiah.
At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.
Indonesia’s inflation reached 2.46 percent month-to-month (m/m) in December 2014 due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented on 18 November 2014. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesia’s inflation was recorded at 8.36 percent, slightly lower than the result in 2013 (8.38 percent). Inflation has been high in 2013 and 2014 as the Indonesian government raised prices of subsidized fuels in both years in an attempt to relieve fiscal pressures brought about by costly oil imports.
Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.
The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate appreciated slightly on Tuesday (02/12). By 12:50 pm local Jakarta time, the currency had appreciated 0.03 percent to 12,277 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Yesterday, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated to the lowest level since January 2014 after official government data showed that inflation had accelerated sharply, while exports contracted more than expected, implying that the country’s wide current account deficit remains troublesome.
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