Bambang Brodjonegoro, Menteri Keuangan Indonesia, mengumumkan pada hari Rabu (27/05) bahwa Pemerintah Indonesia mungkin menaikkan batasan tidak kena pajak - yang membedakan antara penghasilan perorangan yang kena pajak dan tidak kena pajak - sebanyak hampir 50%. Meskipun tindakan ini akan mengimplikasikan pendapatan pajak yang lebih rendah untuk Pemerintah, ini akan memperkuat daya beli masyarakat Indonesia dan bisa agak mendongkrak aktivitas perekonomian di sebuah perekonomian yang dibebani oleh perlambatan pertumbuhan perekonomian sejak 2011.

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Sama dengan industri otomotif, industri sepeda motor Indonesia juga merasakan dampak dari penurunan permintaan sejauh ini di tahun ini. Karena perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dikombinasikan dengan suku bunga domestik yang tinggi dan melemahnya nilai rupiah, daya beli masyarakat Indonesia telah berkurang dan karenanya para konsumen Indonesia telah menjadi lebih berhati-hati dalam membeli sepeda motor dan mobil. Akibatnya, jumlah stok sepeda motor di dealer-dealer lokal telah meningkat dan salah satu cara untuk menjaga rasio penawaran-permintaan yang sehat adalah dengan mengurangi produksi sepeda motor.

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The Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo) lowered its car sales target for 2015 to 1.1 million vehicles, down from its original sales target of 1.2 million vehicles, due to persistent slowing economic growth in Indonesia (curbing consumer demand). On Tuesday (05/05), Statistics Indonesia announced that the country’s economic growth slowed to 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, a five-year low. Other important factors that negatively influence car sales are inflation, the interest rate, the rupiah, and fuel prices.

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Two important indicators to measure the condition of an economy are car and cement sales as both statistics provide valuable information about people’s purchasing power (and consumer confidence) as well as infrastructure and property development. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s car and cement sales declined (compared to the same period in the preceding year), triggering concern that economic growth will fall accordingly. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia’s GDP growth had already slowed to 5.14 percent (y/y).

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According to the latest survey of Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia), the country’s January retail sales accelerated 10.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from the 3.3 percentage point growth pace (y/y) in the preceding month. Retail sales in the first month of the year in Southeast Asia’s largest economy accelerated because of higher sales of information & communication equipment (+29.9 percent y/y) as well as food, beverages & tobacco products (+15.1 percent y/y).

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated JCI or IHSG) posted a series of consecutive record high closes during the past week, primarily on the central bank’s (Bank Indonesia) decision to cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent, investors’ positive outlook on Indonesian companies’ corporate earnings in 2015 and expectation that the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program will offset the negative impact of monetary tightening in the USA.

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Based on preliminary data, domestic car sales in Indonesia fell 7.2 percent (y/y) to 96,149 vehicles in January 2015 from the same month in 2014. It is believed that the recent (subsidized) fuel price reforms, implemented by the Joko Widodo administration in November and January (which led to accelerated inflation), have made consumers hesitant to buy a car. Car sales are an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and the general state of the economy. In general, when car sales rise the economy is growing.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia were slightly down in 2014 compared to the previous year. Amid the slowing economy (Indonesia’s GDP growth may have fallen from 5.8 percent in 2013 to 5.1 percent in 2014) and political uncertainty (triggered by the fragmented results of the country’s legislative and presidential elections) car sales totaled 1.21 million units in 2014, down 1.8 percent from 1.23 million sold vehicles in 2013, according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo).

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia declined 15 percent to 91,449 vehicles in November 2014 (from the same month last year). Declining car sales in Southeast Asia’s largest economy are believed to be caused by the recent subsidized fuel price hike. In mid-November the Joko Widodo-led government raised prices of subsidized fuels (low-octane gasoline and diesel) over 30 percent in order to reduce state spending on fuel consumption and reallocate funds to structural economic and social development.

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Total 29 provinsi Indonesia telah mengkonfirmasi upah minimum regional baru untuk tahun 2015. Secara keseluruhan (mengecualikan empat provinsi yang tersisa), rata-rata upah minimum Indonesia naik 12,77% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di tahun 2015. Meskipun kenaikan ini cukup signifikan, kenaikan ini lebih kecil dibandingkan kenaikan upah minimum Indonesia di tahun 2014 (19,10% y/y). Kenaikan upah minimum terbesar terjadi di Provinsi Bangka Belitung (28%), sementara kenaikan upah terendah terjadi di Riau (0,58%).

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Global consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects Indonesian car sales to grow five percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.28 million vehicles in 2015, particularly on the rising popularity of the low cost green car (LCGC) and the USA-based company’s assumption that the economy of Indonesia will expand by 5.5 percent (y/y) this year. The LCGC was introduced on the Indonesian market in late 2013 after the government had offered tax incentives to car manufacturers that met requirements of fuel efficiency targets.

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After Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have confirmed that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) will be raised in November 2014 in an attempt to ease the country’s wide current account deficit and government budget deficit (which are primarily caused by costly oil imports), domestic car manufacturers and dealers are expected to post declining earnings in 2015. Besides the subsidized fuel price issue, Indonesia’s car industry is also negatively impacted by the country’s slowing economic growth.

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The number of air passengers in Indonesia will most likely fail to meet its growth target in 2014. Based on government data, the number of air passengers in Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 47.5 million in the first eight months of 2014, a 5.82 percentage point growth from the same period last year. However, the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA) initially targeted annual passenger growth in the range of 12-15 percent for 2014. Amid slowing economic growth, people’s purchasing power has declined.

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Forecasts for Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2013 and beyond have been revised down by all institutions, including the Indonesian government and central bank as well as international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Initially, the country’s economic growth was expected to reach around 6.5 percent in 2013. However, most institutions have downgraded forecasts for the country’s economic growth to below the 6.0 percent mark.

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The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.

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One of the sectors that showed exceptional growth in 2012 was Indonesia's property market. On average, net profit of companies engaged in Indonesia's property sector grew 68 percent during the full year. Of the 45 property companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), 26 posted net profit growth that exceeded 50 percent. But the success story did not end there. In the first quarter of 2013, the property sectoral index of the IDX continued its fast pace by rising over 41 percent.

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