Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Populasi Indonesia yang bertumbuh cepat dikombinasikan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang subur dan kurangnya investasi di infrastruktur telah menyebabkan kurangnya kualitas dan kuantitas infrastruktur di Indonesia pada saat ini. Situasi ini menyebabkan peningkatan tajam dalam biaya logistik dan menghalangi untuk mengembangkan dan merealisasikan potensi perekonomian nasional dan regional (sebuah sistem logistik yang efisien penting untuk pembangunan sosial ekonomi Indonesia). Kabar terakhir, belanja Pemerintah untuk pembangunan infrastruktur akan segera dimulai.

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It is estimated that about 20 million Indonesians will travel back to their hometowns during the Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran) celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan (the Islamic holy fasting month) next month. This homeward bound traveling is locally known as mudik. The annual mudik tradition involves millions of Indonesians taking time off from work, leaving their urban residences and travel back to their places of birth in the rural areas for a few days. During these days cities become empty.

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Menteri Transportasi Indonesia Ignatius Jonan meresmikan terminal batubara baru, dimiliki oleh perusahaan milik negara penambang batubara Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam, di Tarahan (Sumatra Selatan) pada hari Rabu (10/06). Terminal batubara Tarahan ini, yang membutuhkan investasi 152 juta dollar AS, kini telah menjadi terminal komersil terbesar di Indonesia dan memiliki kemampuan untuk mengakomodasi kapal dengan kapasitas maksimum 210.000 dead-weight tonnage (DWT). Kapasitas maksimum dari terminal ini dijadwalkan untuk diperbesar menjadi 240.000 DWT.

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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Indonesia siap menjadi co-founder bank infrastruktur syariah lintas batas bersama dengan Turki dan Islamic Development Bank (IDB) yang berbasis di Saudi, salah satu organisasi pemberi pinjaman multilateral. Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan bahwa Indonesia akan berkontribusi lebih dari 300 juta dollar AS sebagai modal awal untuk pendirian bank baru, bernama Islamic Investment Infrastructure Bank (IIIB), yang bertujuan untuk mendongkrak pembangunan infrastruktur di berbagai negara.

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The New Cities Summit 2015 will be held between 9 and 11 June at Ciputra Artpreneur in South Jakarta. The summit, themed “Seizing the Urban Moment: Cities at the Heart of Growth and Development,” will gather around 800 urban planners, urban leaders, artists, businessmen and innovators from around the world in Indonesia’s capital city. This year’s summit is the fourth edition. Previous editions were held in Paris, Sao Paulo and Dallas. The main theme of these summits is to discuss the future of cities.

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Today, Indonesian President Joko Widodo will lay the first stone for the groundbreaking ceremony of the 2,700 km Trans-Sumatra toll road project, linking Lampung to Aceh on the resource-rich island of Sumatra (Indonesia’s second-largest island in terms of geographic size). The toll road, which is one of the key priority infrastructure projects for the Indonesian government, is estimated to require a total of IDR 300 trillion (USD $23.1 billion) of investment. Ten years after parts of the toll road were first tendered, construction can finally commence.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) is again plagued by selling pressures on Wednesday’s trading day (29/04). After today’s first trading session the index was down 2.58 percent to 5,106.73 points. The decline is caused by the persistence of the negative sentiments that have been felt over the past couple of days (explained below) coupled with a discrepancy in economic growth forecasts between the Indonesian government and the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia).

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Most Southeast Asian stock markets declined ahead of the two-day policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve which started today (28/04). Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to limit losses. After the 3.49 percent fall yesterday, the IHSG was down 1 percent after the first trading session today. However, near the closure of the market the index improved markedly resulting in a small loss of 0.06 percent only. Due to severe losses over the past couple of trading sessions, some oversold blue chip shares became attractive.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to allocate IDR 336.24 trillion (USD $32.6 billion) for subsidy spending in the 2014 state budget draft: IDR 284.7 trillion (USD $27.6 billion) for energy subsidies and IDR 51.6 trillion (USD $5.0 billion) for non-energy subsidies. The proposed amount implies a 3.41 percent fall in total subsidy allocation compared to Indonesia's state budget in 2013. However, despite a reduction, subsidy expenditure is still large at 18.5 percent of total government spending (IDR 1,816.7 trillion).

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Cement sales in Indonesia grew by seven percent to 32.9 million tons in the period January to July 2013. This pace of growth is significantly lower compared to the double-digit cement growth rate last year and thus forms another sign of cooling economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy (cement sales are a good indicator to measure the state of economic growth of a country). A slowdown in domestic cement sales is likely to continue in the second half of 2013, partly due to a decline in infrastructure projects.

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Apart from the five tax incentives that I have mentioned in a previous column, the Indonesian government also intends to ease two other tax rules in order to boost investments in Indonesia from 2014 onwards. These are the tax holiday and tax allowance. Relaxation of the tax holiday involves an alteration to the period as well as the size of the investment, and relaxation of procedural difficulties. Relaxation of the tax allowance involves the revision of the number of sectors that are eligible and a relaxation of procedures in the form of tax clearance.

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Due to uncertainty over the feasibility study, it seems highly unlikely that groundbreaking of the ambitious Sunda Strait Bridge project can be conducted in 2014. There has been a long delay with the feasibility study as differences of opinion emerged over who would undertake the study and how it will be financed. Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa said that if the government considers the project to have high priority, then it should make a decision now. If not, Indonesia's next government - after the 2014 elections - will be burdened with the issue.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) rebounded on Tuesday (30/07) as domestic investors were keen on buying Indonesian assets. The value of transactions rose steeply to IDR 8.9 trillion (USD $872.5 million) and four billion shares changed hands. Indonesia's blue chips experienced a good day with Perusahaan Gas Negara gaining 3.51 percent, Bank Rakyat Indonesia 3.18 percent, and Telekomunikasi Indonesia rising 3.07 percent. The IHSG ended the trading day at 4,608.49 points, a 0.61 gain.

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Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) said that it signals a lot of foreign interest in infrastructure projects in Indonesia. However, the country's unconducive investment climate blocks investors from initiating or participating in these projects. A number of matters that cause the unconducive investment climate are discrepancies in regulatory framework between central and regional governments, land acquisition, and a lack of human resources with adequate skills.

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Cement consumption in Indonesia increased 8.6 percent to 18.11 million tons in the first four months of 2013. Demand was particularly supported by property and housing projects in the bigger cities of Indonesia. Another pillar of support was found in the development of various infrastructure projects (including those within the framework of the government's ambitious MP3EI plan). The Indonesian Cement Association expects this year's cement consumption in Indonesia to rise to 61 million tons in total.

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Last week Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was mixed with a weakening trend. The index lost 19.9 points, equivalent to 0.40 percent of its value. During the last month, the index consolidated within the range of 4,800 and 5,030 points. Foreign funds continued to pour in and trade volume remained high although below average trade in the last three weeks. In fact, our technical indicators are showing signs that Indonesia's main stock index has become saturated.

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Astra International, Indonesia's largest listed company by market capitalization, presented its Q1-2013 financial results yesterday. The company, which represents the dominating force in Indonesia's automotive sector, posted a seven percent fall in net earnings (YoY) to IDR 4,310 trillion (USD $444.3 million) amid Indonesia's rising labour costs, weak commodity prices, increased competition in the country's car sector and effects of new minimum down-payment regulations in automotive Shariah-financing.

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