Cipta Kridatama, one of Indonesia leading mining contractor companies, plans to conduct an initial public offering on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) after 2015. The company believes that this corporate action will enhance transparency and good corporate management. Chief Executive officer (CEO) Irfan Setiaputri said that the company is eager to conduct the IPO but needs to wait until after 2015 in order to be fully prepared for this step. The company is currently busy expanding into other business sectors.

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With continued economic growth in Indonesia, thus giving rise to higher per capita GDP, the property market is still expanding rapidly, particularly in the bigger cities such as Jakarta (the political and economic center of Indonesia). By 2015, 46 new property projects will add nearly 25,000 new apartments in Jakarta (‘strata title’, a term that refers to the multi-level apartment blocks and horizontal subdivisions with shared areas) with a combined value of about IDR 23 trillion (almost USD $2 billion).

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Penjualan semen di Indonesia turun 25 persen menjadi 3.7 juta ton pada Juli 2014 dari 5 juta ton pada Juli 2013. Penurunan tajam ini disebabkan oleh libur Lebaran (atau Idul Fitri di mana umat Islam merayakan berakhir bulan puasa), waktu banyak kegiatan usaha bisnis dihentikan sementara, serta pemilu presiden yang diadakan juga pada bulan Juli 2014. Melambatnya penjualan semen juga disebabkan oleh menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi (5.12 persen yoy pada kwartal kedua 2014). Penjualan semen merupakan indikator utama kegiatan konstruksi (pembangunan infrastruktur dan properti).

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The Idul Fitri celebrations (also known as Lebaran) in Indonesia appear to take place in a safe and orderly manner. Idul Fitri is an important religious holiday for Muslims as it stresses the importance of unity for the Islamic community, and marks the end of the holy fasting month (Ramadan). Business comes to a near stand-still in Indonesia during these days, and Jakarta, the political and economic center of Indonesia, has become empty after millions of people went back to their hometowns ahead of Idul Fitri (this is known as the annual mudik tradition).

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The World Bank revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia for the year 2014. In the July 2014 edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly, the institution projects economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy at 5.2 percent, slightly down from its previous forecast of 5.3 percent. The downgrade is the result of a weaker outlook for commodity prices and tighter credit conditions. Moreover, the growing fiscal deficit contributes to the challenges that will be faced by the new government (which will be inaugurated in October 2014).

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, said that the Indonesian economy can grow more than six percent provided that several important structural reforms will be implemented in order to avoid the middle income trap. This trap occurs when rapidly growing economies stagnate at middle-income levels for many years, thereby failing to reach a high income level (as has been the case with Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and other middle income countries from the early 1980s to the mid-2000s).

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Doddy Riyadi, official at the Indonesian Economic Development Committee (KP3EI), said that logistics costs in Indonesia are expected to have fallen three to four percent by the year 2015. Currently, Indonesia is characterized by relatively high logistics costs, thereby reducing the competitiveness of Indonesian products on the international market (curbing exports) as well as, generally, causing a less attractive investment climate. The primary cause of high logistics costs is Indonesia’s lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that its foreign exchanges reserves had risen to USD $107.0 billion by the end of May 2014, up from USD $105.6 billion at the end of the previous month. This increase primarily stemmed from government oil and gas export earnings as well as an influx of foreign portfolio capital into Southeast Asia's largest economy, which reflects the positive perception of international investors with regard to the economic fundamentals of Indonesia.

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One of Indonesia's main fiscal problems is the ever increasing amount of public funds spent on energy subsidies (these include fuels and electricity subsidies). These subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society but several studies conclude that it are in fact the middle class and elite segments that benefit the most of these energy subsidies. Furthermore, by keeping energy prices artificially low, the government distorts the economy by creating a more-or-less 'false economy'.

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The Indian rupee depreciated 0.4 percent to 58.7150 per US dollar on Monday (26/05), the most in a month on speculation that India's central bank intervened to deliberately weaken the currency after it had gained 2.8 percent against the US dollar this month (becoming the best performing Asian currency). The rupee gained due to optimism about the new government's ability to boost the economy (which has slowed down considerably in recent years). However, the central bank expects that a too strong rupee will hurt the country's exports.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to allocate IDR 336.24 trillion (USD $32.6 billion) for subsidy spending in the 2014 state budget draft: IDR 284.7 trillion (USD $27.6 billion) for energy subsidies and IDR 51.6 trillion (USD $5.0 billion) for non-energy subsidies. The proposed amount implies a 3.41 percent fall in total subsidy allocation compared to Indonesia's state budget in 2013. However, despite a reduction, subsidy expenditure is still large at 18.5 percent of total government spending (IDR 1,816.7 trillion).

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Cement sales in Indonesia grew by seven percent to 32.9 million tons in the period January to July 2013. This pace of growth is significantly lower compared to the double-digit cement growth rate last year and thus forms another sign of cooling economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy (cement sales are a good indicator to measure the state of economic growth of a country). A slowdown in domestic cement sales is likely to continue in the second half of 2013, partly due to a decline in infrastructure projects.

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Apart from the five tax incentives that I have mentioned in a previous column, the Indonesian government also intends to ease two other tax rules in order to boost investments in Indonesia from 2014 onwards. These are the tax holiday and tax allowance. Relaxation of the tax holiday involves an alteration to the period as well as the size of the investment, and relaxation of procedural difficulties. Relaxation of the tax allowance involves the revision of the number of sectors that are eligible and a relaxation of procedures in the form of tax clearance.

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Due to uncertainty over the feasibility study, it seems highly unlikely that groundbreaking of the ambitious Sunda Strait Bridge project can be conducted in 2014. There has been a long delay with the feasibility study as differences of opinion emerged over who would undertake the study and how it will be financed. Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa said that if the government considers the project to have high priority, then it should make a decision now. If not, Indonesia's next government - after the 2014 elections - will be burdened with the issue.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) rebounded on Tuesday (30/07) as domestic investors were keen on buying Indonesian assets. The value of transactions rose steeply to IDR 8.9 trillion (USD $872.5 million) and four billion shares changed hands. Indonesia's blue chips experienced a good day with Perusahaan Gas Negara gaining 3.51 percent, Bank Rakyat Indonesia 3.18 percent, and Telekomunikasi Indonesia rising 3.07 percent. The IHSG ended the trading day at 4,608.49 points, a 0.61 gain.

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Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) said that it signals a lot of foreign interest in infrastructure projects in Indonesia. However, the country's unconducive investment climate blocks investors from initiating or participating in these projects. A number of matters that cause the unconducive investment climate are discrepancies in regulatory framework between central and regional governments, land acquisition, and a lack of human resources with adequate skills.

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Cement consumption in Indonesia increased 8.6 percent to 18.11 million tons in the first four months of 2013. Demand was particularly supported by property and housing projects in the bigger cities of Indonesia. Another pillar of support was found in the development of various infrastructure projects (including those within the framework of the government's ambitious MP3EI plan). The Indonesian Cement Association expects this year's cement consumption in Indonesia to rise to 61 million tons in total.

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Last week Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was mixed with a weakening trend. The index lost 19.9 points, equivalent to 0.40 percent of its value. During the last month, the index consolidated within the range of 4,800 and 5,030 points. Foreign funds continued to pour in and trade volume remained high although below average trade in the last three weeks. In fact, our technical indicators are showing signs that Indonesia's main stock index has become saturated.

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Astra International, Indonesia's largest listed company by market capitalization, presented its Q1-2013 financial results yesterday. The company, which represents the dominating force in Indonesia's automotive sector, posted a seven percent fall in net earnings (YoY) to IDR 4,310 trillion (USD $444.3 million) amid Indonesia's rising labour costs, weak commodity prices, increased competition in the country's car sector and effects of new minimum down-payment regulations in automotive Shariah-financing.

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