Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Populasi Indonesia yang bertumbuh cepat dikombinasikan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang subur dan kurangnya investasi di infrastruktur telah menyebabkan kurangnya kualitas dan kuantitas infrastruktur di Indonesia pada saat ini. Situasi ini menyebabkan peningkatan tajam dalam biaya logistik dan menghalangi untuk mengembangkan dan merealisasikan potensi perekonomian nasional dan regional (sebuah sistem logistik yang efisien penting untuk pembangunan sosial ekonomi Indonesia). Kabar terakhir, belanja Pemerintah untuk pembangunan infrastruktur akan segera dimulai.

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It is estimated that about 20 million Indonesians will travel back to their hometowns during the Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran) celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan (the Islamic holy fasting month) next month. This homeward bound traveling is locally known as mudik. The annual mudik tradition involves millions of Indonesians taking time off from work, leaving their urban residences and travel back to their places of birth in the rural areas for a few days. During these days cities become empty.

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Menteri Transportasi Indonesia Ignatius Jonan meresmikan terminal batubara baru, dimiliki oleh perusahaan milik negara penambang batubara Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam, di Tarahan (Sumatra Selatan) pada hari Rabu (10/06). Terminal batubara Tarahan ini, yang membutuhkan investasi 152 juta dollar AS, kini telah menjadi terminal komersil terbesar di Indonesia dan memiliki kemampuan untuk mengakomodasi kapal dengan kapasitas maksimum 210.000 dead-weight tonnage (DWT). Kapasitas maksimum dari terminal ini dijadwalkan untuk diperbesar menjadi 240.000 DWT.

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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Indonesia siap menjadi co-founder bank infrastruktur syariah lintas batas bersama dengan Turki dan Islamic Development Bank (IDB) yang berbasis di Saudi, salah satu organisasi pemberi pinjaman multilateral. Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan bahwa Indonesia akan berkontribusi lebih dari 300 juta dollar AS sebagai modal awal untuk pendirian bank baru, bernama Islamic Investment Infrastructure Bank (IIIB), yang bertujuan untuk mendongkrak pembangunan infrastruktur di berbagai negara.

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The New Cities Summit 2015 will be held between 9 and 11 June at Ciputra Artpreneur in South Jakarta. The summit, themed “Seizing the Urban Moment: Cities at the Heart of Growth and Development,” will gather around 800 urban planners, urban leaders, artists, businessmen and innovators from around the world in Indonesia’s capital city. This year’s summit is the fourth edition. Previous editions were held in Paris, Sao Paulo and Dallas. The main theme of these summits is to discuss the future of cities.

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Today, Indonesian President Joko Widodo will lay the first stone for the groundbreaking ceremony of the 2,700 km Trans-Sumatra toll road project, linking Lampung to Aceh on the resource-rich island of Sumatra (Indonesia’s second-largest island in terms of geographic size). The toll road, which is one of the key priority infrastructure projects for the Indonesian government, is estimated to require a total of IDR 300 trillion (USD $23.1 billion) of investment. Ten years after parts of the toll road were first tendered, construction can finally commence.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) is again plagued by selling pressures on Wednesday’s trading day (29/04). After today’s first trading session the index was down 2.58 percent to 5,106.73 points. The decline is caused by the persistence of the negative sentiments that have been felt over the past couple of days (explained below) coupled with a discrepancy in economic growth forecasts between the Indonesian government and the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia).

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Most Southeast Asian stock markets declined ahead of the two-day policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve which started today (28/04). Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to limit losses. After the 3.49 percent fall yesterday, the IHSG was down 1 percent after the first trading session today. However, near the closure of the market the index improved markedly resulting in a small loss of 0.06 percent only. Due to severe losses over the past couple of trading sessions, some oversold blue chip shares became attractive.

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The Finance Ministry of Indonesia announced that it plans to inject USD 1.63 billion into state-owned financing company Sarana Multi Infrastruktur and to transform this company into an infrastructure bank in a move to boost infrastructure development across Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The central government needs private capital to fund its massive infrastructure program for the next five years as it can only account for 30 percent of required investment. For the remainder it relies on private capital and state-owned enterprises.

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In his presentation at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January, Standard Chartered Bank Senior Economist Fauzi Ichsan said that despite the challenges amid global uncertain times, there remains plenty room and opportunity for Indonesia to grow robustly on the long-term. In fact, by 2030 Ichsan believes that Indonesia will be among the world's top ten countries in terms of largest economies. For investors it is important to understand the challenges and key pillars of economic growth.

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Takehiko Nakao, President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow 5.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, lower than the target that has been set by the Indonesian government in the 2015 State Budget (5.8 percent y/y). Nakao is slightly less optimistic as he expects a slowdown in government spending this year. On a positive note, Nakao’s forecast implies a sharp improvement in Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015 from an estimated 5.1 percentage point (y/y) GDP growth in 2014.

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The Indonesian government changed the funding scheme for the construction of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Railway project (which will connect Soekarno Hatta International Airport, located nearby Jakarta, and Halim Airport in Jakarta). Previously, it was planned that this project, valued at IDR 26 trillion (USD $2.1 billion), would be offered through a public-private partnership (PPP) construction in which the Indonesian government would finance 55 percent of the costs. Now, however, the project is offered fully to the private sector.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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Last week, Indonesian President Joko Widodo introduced higher subsidized fuel prices in Southeast Asia’s largest economy in a bid to shift generous public spending from fuel consumption to productive and structural economic and social development. Prices of subsidized low-octane gasoline (premium) and diesel (solar) were raised by over 30 percent, or IDR 2,000 (USD $0.17) per liter, starting from 00:00 on Tuesday (18/11). Widodo aims to reallocate these funds to infrastructure, social welfare and the maritime sector.

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A total of 35 American companies are interested to invest a combined USD $61 billion in Indonesia over the next five years according to a survey conducted by the Paramadina Public Policy Institute, the American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia (AmCham Indonesia), the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), and the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia). These 35 US companies have already invested a total of USD $65 billion in Indonesia over the period 2004 to 2012.

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The number of air passengers in Indonesia will most likely fail to meet its growth target in 2014. Based on government data, the number of air passengers in Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 47.5 million in the first eight months of 2014, a 5.82 percentage point growth from the same period last year. However, the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA) initially targeted annual passenger growth in the range of 12-15 percent for 2014. Amid slowing economic growth, people’s purchasing power has declined.

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Investment in Indonesia’s processed food and beverage industry is expected to grow at least ten percent to IDR 55 trillion (USD $4.6 billion) in 2015 from an estimated investment realization of IDR 50 trillion in 2014. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), said that investments in this sector have been solid due to rising consumption of food and beverages in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Particularly foreign investments have been strong in 2014 and are expected to continue next year.

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Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?

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