Indonesian stocks continue to fall on today’s trading day (28/04). After having declined 3.49 percent yesterday, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell a further 1.00 percent during the first trading session on Tuesday. Investors, particularly foreign ones, are still concerned about weak first quarter financial results of listed Indonesian companies, signalling that the country’s economic growth in Q1-2015 will be disappointing too. Furthermore, the market is waiting for results of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which is set to start today.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) - fell sharply on Monday (27/04) amid mixed regional stock markets. Three main factors caused the weak performance of Indonesian stocks. Firstly, several key companies posted weak first quarter corporate earnings. Secondly, Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter may fall below 5 percent (y/y), which would be a six-year low. Lastly, Indonesia is getting bad press around the globe due to imminent executions of convicted foreign drug traffickers.

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On the sidelines of the 24th World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia, Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minister Sofyan Djalil said that - despite global challenges - the government maintains its economic growth target of 5.7 percent (y/y) in 2015. However, he added that it will require great effort to achieve this target. One key strategy to achieve the target is to attract foreign investment through several policies including tax incentives and by easing the country’s bureaucratic hurdles for investment permits.

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Two important indicators to measure the condition of an economy are car and cement sales as both statistics provide valuable information about people’s purchasing power (and consumer confidence) as well as infrastructure and property development. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s car and cement sales declined (compared to the same period in the preceding year), triggering concern that economic growth will fall accordingly. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia’s GDP growth had already slowed to 5.14 percent (y/y).

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The deadline for tenders for various infrastructure projects in Indonesia has been extended by the Public Works and Public Housing Ministry because it needs more time to determine the number of projects to be offered and to calculate new budget allocations for these projects. Ministry official Hediyanto W. Husaini said that his ministry is optimistic that by early May 2015 all construction projects can be tendered. Currently, only 9,578 construction projects (about 70 percent of total planned projects) can be tendered.

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Bank Dunia menerbitkan laporan terbarunya mengenai Perekonomian Indonesia pada tanggal 18 Maret 2015. Dalam laporan yang berjudul 'High Expectations’ ini Bank Dunia memuji perkembangan reformasi awal di beberapa area kunci seperti subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan juga bertambahnya tindakan-tindakan reformasi kunci yang sedang dalam proses. Ini membangkitkan harapan yang tinggi mengenai perekonomian Indonesia pada jangka waktu menengah maupun panjang. Namun, Pemerintah juga menghadapi halangan-halangan untuk menerapkan reformasi struktural lebih lanjut karena prospek pertumbuhan yang menurun.

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Pemerintah Indonesia akan mempercepat pembangunan Jalan Tol Trans-Sumatra sepanjang 2.700 km dengan merevisi Peraturan Presiden No. 100/2014 mengenai Pembangunan Jalan Tol di Sumatra dan dengan mempercepat proses pembebasan tanah. Jalan tol Trans-Sumatra ini akan menjadi jalur utama di Sumatra yang menghubungkan Banda Aceh di utara dengan Bandar Lampung di selatan melalui 24 sektor yang memanjang melalui 10 provinsi. President Joko Widodo mengatakan bahwa pembangunan jalan tol ini akan dimulai April 2015.

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On Tuesday (03/03) the governments of Indonesia and the Netherlands launched a comprehensive five-year public-private partnership (PPP) for enhancing coastal safety at the northern coastal line of Central Java. By joining forces in this 5 million euro project (financed by the Dutch Sustainable Water Fund), mangrove restoration, small scale hard-engineering, and sustainable land use are to result in reduced erosion risk at the coastal area. Key to the project is the use natural protection to strengthen sustainable coastal engineering.

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Indonesian Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan said that the Cilamaya port project in Karawang (West Java) may be tendered this year to the private sector. The central government is currently engaged in the preparation of the terms of reference (TOR) for the project. Through the construction of the Cilamaya port, which will occupy 2,000 hectares of land some 65 kilometers east of Jakarta, the government aims to reduce the country’s logistics costs and ease traffic at the Tanjung Priok port, the largest Indonesian seaport, in Jakarta.

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The Indonesian government wants to limit investment opportunities in the country’s cement industry in an attempt to maintain a healthy business climate. Indonesian Industry Ministry official Harjanto said that Indonesia’s current cement production capacity is more than enough to meet domestic demand. Given that most established cement producers have expansion plans the influx of new cement producers leads to an oversupply thus reducing companies’ profit margins. The nation’s cement production capacity stands at 77 million tons per year.

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Domestic steel sales in Indonesia are expected to rise 6 percent y/y to 15.1 million tons in 2014. Meanwhile, the global average steel price has been USD $536 per ton this year, implying that the market value of Indonesian steel sales is to reach USD $8 billion this year. In recent years, the country’s steel sales have been rising on development of infrastructure, defense industry, and manufacturing. The sales are expected to continue rising in the years ahead due to commitment of the government to boost infrastructure development.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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Indonesian cement sales jumped 37.4 percent (year-on-year) to 4.7 million tons in August 2014 due to higher cement demand from Indonesian property and infrastructure developers. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the development of smelters, power plants, apartments, hotels, and social housing has been key to improved cement sales last month. However, the 37.4 percentage point growth was also caused by fewer working days in August 2013 as the Lebaran holiday fell in that month.

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The prequalification tender for the construction of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Railway project has been postponed until late October 2014 (from August) as agreements with several stakeholders still need to be finalized. For example, the government is yet to underwrite part of the required investment. Indonesia’s Ministry of Transportation proposes to underwrite IDR 13.5 trillion (USD $2.3 billion) - approximately 49 percent of total required investment for this railway project.

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Property stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have outperformed all other stocks between the first trading day of 2014 up to 29 August 2014. The IDX’ property sector category rose 37.6 percent in the indicated period, whereas the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) - which involves all stocks traded on the IDX - climbed 18.7 percent over the same period. On the IDX, stocks are placed in ten sectoral categories. The second-best performing sectoral index was finance (+24.5 percent).

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Before the second and final term of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has finished on 20 October 2014, the groundbreaking of a total of 13 infrastructure projects should have been conducted. These 13 projects are diverse ranging from toll roads to steam power plants and the extension of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport located nearby Jakarta. One of these 13 projects - the IDR 9.65 trillion Trans Sulawesi Railway project - has already had its groundbreaking in mid-August 2014.

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When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.

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The Indonesian Transportation Ministry will tender the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport train project in August 2014. The project, which will connect one of the world’s busiest airports to the capital city of Jakarta, is offered in the shape of a public-private partnership (PPP) with the Indonesian government. The total of investment required to develop the railway, which will be built partly underground, is estimated at IDR 26 trillion (USD $2.2 billion). The project aims to improve connectivity to the airport.

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On Monday (23/06), the World Bank released its latest analysis regarding the Indonesian economy. In its report, titled ‘Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap’, the World Bank states that Indonesia needs to implement a six reforms in priority areas in order to avoid the so-called middle income trap (referring to the situation where a country gets stuck at a certain income level). Without these critical reforms, the country’s economic growth will slow and may not be able to escape the middle income trap.

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Sunday evening (15/06), the second debate between Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Prabowo Subianto and Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo - was held. This debate was broadcast live on various Indonesian television stations and - once again - managed to become a trending topic on social media. The debate, the theme of which was ‘development of the economy and social welfare‘, was characterized by a nationalistic and protectionist tone. This tone had already been set by Subianto in the past weeks but now Jokowi also stressed protectionism.

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