The value of Indonesia's exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives plunged 11.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.6 billion in 2015 from USD $21.1 billion in the preceding year. However, in terms of volume, Indonesian exports of CPO and its derivatives actually rose 21.7 percent to 26.4 million tons. The higher volume but lower earnings are explained by the palm oil price. Palm oil traded at an average of USD $614.20 per ton in 2015, down 24.9 percent (y/y) from an average price of USD $818.20 per ton in 2014.

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Dewan Minyak Sawit Indonesia (DMSI) memperkirakan ekspor minyak sawit mentah Indonesia (crude palm oil/CPO) turun 8,7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 21 juta ton tahun depan dari estimasi 23 juta ton pada 2015. Penurunan ekspor disebabkan adanya peningkatan konsumsi CPO dalam negeri di tengah implementasi penuh program B15 biodiesel. Konsumsi dalam negeri CPO diperkirakan tumbuh 37% (y/y) dari 8,4 juta ton pada 2015 menjadi 11,5 juta ton pada 2016. Jika program biodiesel B20 akan dilaksanakan, maka ekspor CPO Indonesia bisa semakin menurun.

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While many of Indonesia's coal producers have ceased operations as the production cost margin turned negative, the country's crude palm oil (CPO) producers are still making a profit despite palm oil prices also having weakened sharply in recent years. The Palm Oil Agribusiness Strategic Policy Institute (Paspi) said that production costs for palm oil producers stand in the range of USD $250 to USD $300 per ton, implying that with current CPO prices at around USD $550 per ton, CPO producers still make a reasonable profit.

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Global crude palm oil (CPO) prices may climb up to USD $800 per metric ton in 2016, from USD $575 per ton (FOB) currently, due to the looming implementation of the B20 biodiesel program in Indonesia and curbed CPO output in 2016. Moreover, global oil prices are expected to rise to around USD $60 per barrel in 2016. Higher petroleum prices should boost demand for biodiesel (diesel blended with palm methyl ester, which is subsidized through the Indonesian government's CPO fund program).

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The El Nino-inflicted dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia, possibly the worst in nearly two decades, is expected to curtail crude palm oil (CPO) output in both countries, implying that palm oil prices can extend their rally into next year. Moreover, Indonesia will consume more CPO as the government will raise the mandatory amount of palm oil blended with diesel from 15 to 20 percent (part of its B20 biofuel program) in early 2016. Since August - when prices were at a six-year low - palm oil futures have surged 26 percent.

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The terrorist attacks in Paris last week are not expected to jeopardize Indonesia's trade with France or the European Union. France is expected to tighten the flow of people, but not the flow of goods after the terrorist attacks on Friday (13/11) that led to the deaths of at least 129 people as well as hundreds of injured people. In 2014 trade between Indonesia and France totaled USD $2.35 billion, down 11 percent from the preceding year. Indonesian exports to France stood at USD $1.02 billion (exports only involved non-oil & gas products), while Indonesia's imports from France stood at USD $1.33 billion in 2014.

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Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is estimated to rise to 33 million tons in 2016, roughly 500,000 tons lower than the initial forecast as the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to impact on agricultural output by causing an extended dry season in Southeast Asia (that will perhaps last beyond December). This year, Indonesia, the global leading CPO producer and exporter, is expected to produce 31.5 million tons. Reduced output in Indonesia may support palm oil prices.

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There is limited to no room for palm oil prices to rise in the remainder of 2015 as crude palm oil (CPO) reserves have climbed while exports are down. CPO production in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of this commodity, may have hit the one-year high of 3.20 million tons in August (from 2.86 million tons one month earlier) as trees reached their peak production period. Meanwhile, India introduced higher taxes for overseas purchases of palm oil in order to protect domestic growers.

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Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to reach 40 million tons in 2020, in line with the government’s national program and downstream CPO roadmap. At the 3rd Indonesia International Palm Oil Processing Machinery & Technology Exhibition, Pranata, Director of Forest and Plantation Industries at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, said that, based on the roadmap, targeted CPO production growth should average 6.8 percent per year up to 2020, so the country will produce 40 million tons by that year.

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After introducing palm oil export levies earlier this month, the Indonesian Finance Ministry announced on Tuesday (28/07) that it has implemented another change in the country’s palm oil industry. From now on, export taxes for crude palm oil (CPO) and other palm oil products will be expressed in US dollar instead of a percentage of the price. Indonesia’s palm oil export tax kicks in when the government’s reference CPO price exceeds USD $750 per metric ton. If the price is below this level, palm oil exporters only need to pay the new export levies.

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Usage of biodiesel for transportation in Indonesia is expected to reach 7.2 million kiloliter by 2015, a sharp increase from 600,000 kiloliter in the first nine months of 2013. State-owned Pertamina is expected to supply the extra 6.6 million kiloliter of biodiesel. The reason why the Indonesian government is eager to develop palm-based biofuel for transportation purposes is to reduce the country's reliance on the import of expensive diesel fuel. Imports of fuels and gas are the foremost reason that Indonesia is coping with a wide current account deficit.

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In order to curb imports of oil, the government of Indonesia intends to stimulate the production of crude palm oil-based biofuel by increasing the mandatory content of fatty acid methyl ester (which is made from palm oil) in biodiesel products from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. Through this policy, the government claims to be able to save up to USD $3 billion as it needs less fuel imports. Fuel imports totaled USD $5.8 billion in the first six months of 2013 and form a major cause for the USD $9.8 billion current account deficit in Q2-2013.

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Indonesia's production of crude palm oil (CPO) in the first six months of 2013 rose 25.64 percent compared to semester I-2012 to 14.7 million tons, which is a little over half of this year's CPO production target. Despite weak global demand for the commodity (accompanied by falling CPO prices), growth was accomplished due to new seeds that became productive and because the total size of Indonesian palm oil estates continues to expand. Productive estates now stand at 9.4 million hectares from 8.7 million hectares last year.

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Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.

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The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.

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Last week, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono extended the moratorium on new permits to convert natural forests and peat lands for a further two years. In 2011, Indonesia's government signed the two-year primary forest moratorium that came into effect on 20 May 2011 and expired in May 2013. This moratorium implies a temporary stop to the granting of new permits to clear rain forests and peat lands in the country. The moratorium particularly aims to limit Indonesia's quickly expanding palm oil industry.

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