Although the fundamentals of the Indonesian economy are sound, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's Global Ratings (S&P) warned that there are several threats. These threats include four Fed Funds Rate hikes in 2018, a fragile rupiah, a looming higher benchmark interest rate in Indonesia (BI 7-day Reverse Repo), sluggish household consumption growth, a shift of focus from reforms to elections, the impact of a global trade war, and a deterioration in the balance sheets of certain state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

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Bambang Brodjonegoro, Indonesian Minister of National Development Planning (Bappenas) and former Finance Minister, is confident that the recent sovereign credit ratings upgrade by Standard & Poor's (S&P) will unlock up to USD $200 billion in potential foreign capital inflows into portfolio investment, primarily into Indonesia's government and corporate bonds as well as stocks. Another advantage is that nations with investment grade ratings enjoy cheaper borrowing costs.

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Despite the recent rating upgrade from Standard & Poor's, Indonesia's banking sector will not immediately issue bonds to enjoy (expected) higher demand and lower yields. Based on data from the Financial Services Authority (OJK), per March 2017, the value of bonds issued by Indonesian banks fell from IDR 93.22 trillion in December 2016 to IDR 90.25 trillion (approx. USD $6.8 billion) per March 2017.

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More rupiah and foreign-denominated bonds are expected to be issued in Indonesia now credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) assigned investment grade status to Indonesia's sovereign rating (BBB-/stable outlook). Yields are expected to decline gradually, while the cost of funds become cheaper. Therefore, it now becomes more attractive for the Indonesian government and local companies (those that also have been assigned the investment grade rating) to issue bonds and collect "cheaper funds".

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Most Asian stocks are in the green zone on Monday morning (22/05), tracking Wall Street's performance on Friday where investors' attention shifted from recent political drama - related to US President Donald Trump - to good corporate earnings of Deere and Caterpillar. Meanwhile, rising crude oil ahead of the OPEC meeting on Friday (May 25, 2017) added positive sentiments to markets. Indonesia is again on track to finish at a new all-time record high.

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On 21 May 2017, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economy-related matters such as the possible end to Indonesia's bank secrecy, the investment grade status from S&P, monetary policy, the current account balance, trade balance, infrastructure, and more.

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This is a great day for Indonesia's financial markets. Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) assigned investment grade status to Indonesia's sovereign rating, upgrading it from junk status, hence now being on par with the investment grade rating as assigned by the other leading credit rating agencies Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service. The investment grade status from all three leading credit rating agencies should unlock a fresh flow of capital into Indonesia.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index slipped for the third consecutive day on Tuesday (02/05), unable to follow the general trend in Asian markets. While the overnight rally on Wall Street (the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high) and easing geopolitical concerns on Korea provided the right context for most Asian stocks to rise, Indonesia failed to follow suit. This was attributed to higher-than-expected inflation. However, we also want to add that valuations of Indonesian stocks are still high, making these stocks "a bit unattractive".

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American finance firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc expects a big flow of funds from Japan to enter Indonesia's capital markets if credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) decides to upgrade Indonesia's sovereign debt rating to investment grade. While Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service have already upgraded Indonesia to investment grade status several years ago, S&P still rates Indonesia's debt one notch below investment grade, implying various big institutional investors cannot invest in Indonesian debt as they require investment grade ratings from all three key credit ratings agencies.

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Indonesia's improving ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index shows that the government's reform efforts have had a positive effect. However, there is no time for complacency as most industries in Indonesia continue to lack competitiveness compared to regional counterparts, while many entrepreneurs in Indonesia continue to complain about (the lack of) legal certainty as well as (the lack of) good coordination and cooperation between Indonesia's central and regional governments (in terms of policy implementation).

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On Friday (17/04) Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced that the country’s foreign debt grew 9.4 percent (y/y) to USD $298.9 billion in February 2015, thus slower than the 10.5 percent (y/y) growth rate in the preceding month. Indonesia’s external debt growth slowed as both public and private sectors refrained from taking more debt. Public sector foreign debt grew 4.4 percent (y/y) to USD 134.8 billion, while private sector foreign debt rose 13.8 percent (y/y) to USD $164.1 billion in February.

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Standard & Poor’s (S&P) affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BB+/stable outlook. Favorable fiscal and debt metrics as well as moderately strong growth prospects were cited as the key factors supporting the affirmation of Indonesia's sovereign credit rating. On the other hand, moderately weak institutional strength, low GDP per capita and external vulnerability are factors that can negatively influence the rating. S&P also expects that Indonesia's sustainable economic policies will be maintained after the 2014 presidential election.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index/JCI) rebounded on Tuesday (11/02) after being impacted by rising Asian stock indices that followed Wall Street's positive ending on Monday (10/02) as well as higher prices of several commodities. Moreover, JP Morgan Chase & Co released a positive assessment of China's banks and stock market. Lastly, Standard & Poor’s put Indonesia's banks on a stable outlook. Combined, these factors made the IHSG rise 0.44 percent to 4,470.19 points.

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Starting from May 2013, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) has been on a weakening (bearish) trend inflicted by various reasons. First, in early May, Standard & Poor's downgraded Indonesia's credit rating due to the government's hesitancy to slash fuel subsidies. Then, the Federal Reserve started to speculate about ending its quantitative easing program. Capital outflows that followed indicated the vulnerable state of the Indonesian economy. Moreover, the controversial hike in fuel prices in late-June resulted in high inflation.

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Last week, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) rebounded 303 points to 4,818.90. After weeks of foreign outflows, Indonesia finally experienced capital inflows again during the last two days of the week. For example, on Friday (28/06) foreigners bought IDR 960 billion (USD $97.0 million) more Indonesian shares than they sold. However, considering the full week, foreigners still recorded net selling amounting to IDR 1.02 trillion (USD $103 million). Do these last couple of days tell us that the bearish market is over? Lets take a closer look.

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Throughout the month of May, the level of volatility of Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) has been remarkable and interesting. At the start of the month we were shocked by Standard & Poor's downgrade of Indonesia's credit rating outlook as well as Moody's warning to take similar measures as Indonesia had been slow to deal with its subsidized fuel policy. These issues were able to drag the index down. Moreover, the threat of higher inflation triggers concerns that the index would show its traditional fall in the month of May.

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The Jakarta composite index (IHSG), Indonesia's main stock index, was mixed last week. During the week it lost 53 points or 1.04 percent to finish at the level of 4,925.48. A number of blue chips, such as Bank Mandiri and Astra International, were hit by large sell-offs as the downgrade of S&P's debt outlook for Indonesia's BB+ rating kicked in and triggered serious negative market sentiments. Last week, I already discussed the 'Bloody May' phenomenon, the month that usually results in a correction.

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Despite strong American and European indices (which impacted positively on most Asian stock indices), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) continued its two-day weakening trend. Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade Indonesia's BB+ credit rating outlook from positive to stable was a major reason for foreign investors to start selling their Indonesian assets. At the end of Friday's trading day (03/05/13), the index stood at 4,925.48, an 1.37 percent fall.

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International financial services company Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded its outlook on Indonesia’s BB+ rating from positive to stable as the agency assessed that Indonesia's reform momentum is fading and the external profile is weakening. The decision came as a surprise as Indonesia's government had just declared to reduce its massive spending on fuel subsidies starting from next month. These subsidies were the main reason why S&P had not upgraded Indonesia's credit rating to investment grade yet.

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