Domestic car sales in Indonesia (wholesales; from factories to dealers) surged 11 percent (y/y) to 87,919 vehicles in May 2016, the second straight month of rising car sales (on a year-on-year basis). However, Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), reminded stakeholders not to become too enthusiastic as the rise in Indonesia's May car sales was caused by technical factors, rather than fundamental ones. Last month, the nation's car manufacturers began to deliver new models to dealers ahead of the Idul Fitri holiday.

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Last year Indonesian President Joko Widodo emphasized the importance for Indonesia to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as this free trade deal - one of the world's most ambitious trade deals, covering an area that contributes about 40 percent to total global trade - will make the Indonesian economy more efficient and its exports more competitive (while also expanding the nation's export base). However, there also exist concerns about a possible participation of Indonesia in this free trade deal. One of the concerns involves Indonesia's automotive industry.

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Car sales in Indonesia grew 4.6 percent (y/y) to 84,703 vehicles in April 2016 from 81,000 vehicles in the same month last year. This is a remarkable result as monthly car sales growth (on a year-on-year basis) had been declining for 16 straight months previously. Stakeholders in the automotive industry hope that this is the start of a rebound, in line with accelerating economic growth. In the first quarter of 2016 Indonesia's economic growth accelerated to a growth pace of 4.92 percent (y/y), higher than the 4.73 percent GDP growth pace in the same quarter last year.

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The selling price of Indonesia's low cost green car (LCGC) has become more and more expensive. Initially, this type of car was launched on the Indonesian market in order to offer the people an affordable and relatively environment friendly car. However, rising selling prices of the LCGC and weaker purchasing power amid Indonesia's slowing economic growth trend that occurred since 2011 has made it harder for Indonesia's middle class to purchase a LCGC.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia are expected to rebound in the second half of 2016 in line with Indonesia's improving macro-economy. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), is optimistic that the small drop in Indonesia's February car sales is a sign that the sales decline is stabilizing. In February 2016 a total of 88,250 cars were sold in Indonesia, down 0.6 percent (y/y) from car sales in the same month one year earlier. Fitch Ratings also expects Indonesian car sales to rebound this year.

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An improvement has been detected in Indonesia's car sales. According to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) car sales in Indonesia totaled 88,250 units in February 2016. Although this figure is 0.6 percent down from sales in the same month one year earlier, the percentage fall is the slowest since August 2014. Noegardjito, Secretary of Gaikindo, said this limited decline came on the back of Indonesia's improving economy. However, February was still the 18th consecutive month of contracting car sales in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Despite the country's high import tariffs and the high luxury goods tax, there remains strong demand for imports of completely built up (CBU) cars in Indonesia. As the Indonesian government is eager to limit imports of consumer goods, it set an average import tariff of 45 percent on CBU cars. Besides this import tariff the imported CBU car is also subject to Indonesia's luxury goods tax at 20 percent. However, these high taxes have done little to curtail imports of CBU cars. The real reason why some foreign-branded imported CBU cars see declining sales in Indonesia is due to weaker purchasing power.

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Although it was no surprise to hear that American car manufacturer Ford Motor Company decided to exit Japan, few expected the car giant to leave Indonesia. On Monday (25/01), Ford Motor Company announced it will have closed its sales operations in Indonesia and Japan by the end of 2016. This decision came nearly one year after American multinational corporation General Motors Company (GM) decided to shut down its Chevrolet Spin production plant in Indonesia. Why do major American (and European) car manufacturers have difficulty to tap the Indonesian car market?

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In line with expectations and the general trend so far this year, Indonesian car sales fell 4.4 percent to 87,311 units in November 2015. In the January-November 2015 period, the country's total car sales reached 940,317 units, down 16.7 percent from car sales in the same period last year. The main cause of this weak performance is Indonesians' weakened purchasing power amid the country's economic slowdown, high inflation (in the first three quarters of the year), and low commodity prices.

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New York-based Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, expects demand growth in Indonesia's life and non-life insurance sectors to occur over the medium term on the country's (currently still) low insurance penetration rate, improving risk awareness, and the expanding middle class segment within the rising population of Southeast Asia's largest economy. Meanwhile, the credit rating agency believes Indonesia's car and motorcycle sales will remain under pressure in 2016 due to weak consumer spending.

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Amid Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as well as looming higher prices of subsidized fuels (which will cause accelerated inflation and declining purchasing power), domestic car sales in Indonesia have fallen 6.3 percent to 104,916 units in October 2014 from the same month last year according to preliminary data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). Cumulatively, car sales reached 1.04 million units in the first ten months of 2014, a slight 1.6 percentage point increase from the same period last year.

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After Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have confirmed that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) will be raised in November 2014 in an attempt to ease the country’s wide current account deficit and government budget deficit (which are primarily caused by costly oil imports), domestic car manufacturers and dealers are expected to post declining earnings in 2015. Besides the subsidized fuel price issue, Indonesia’s car industry is also negatively impacted by the country’s slowing economic growth.

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Car sales in Indonesia declined 8 percent to 98,198 units in May 2014 from 106,811 units in the previous month. The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) said that the decline was the direct consequence of several public holidays (International Labour Day and the commemorations of Buddha’s birthday as well as ascensions of Prophet Muhammad and Jesus Christ). These holidays caused a lower car production rate and a reduced number of car deliveries to wholesale dealers.

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Despite higher car prices due to the depreciating rupiah exchange rate, domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 11 percent to 107,496 in January 2014 compared to the same month last year. January sales were particularly supported by sales of the low cost green car (LCGC) and low multipurpose vehicle (LMPV). Both these car types enjoy high popularity in Indonesia. In 2013, the Indonesian government provided tax incentives for the establishment of a domestic LCGC industry.

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Indonesia's automotive industry experienced some drastic changes in recent years. Originally regarded as a mere production hub due to cheap productions costs (particularly wages), it changed into a major car sales market as per capita GDP continues to grow and gives rise to an expanding middle class. Since 2011, domestic car sales in Indonesia have reached record highs and given that the country's per capita car ownership is still relatively low, there is room for more growth. But Indonesia is also eager to become an important car exporting country.

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In 2014, Indonesia is expected to see capital inflow of between USD $1 billion and USD $1.5 billion of funds for investments in the country's car components industry. About 20 to 30 companies are eager to expand or start business in this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy (each investing about USD $50 million). Indonesia's car industry is attractive due to record high car sales in recent years (triggered by strong domestic GDP per capita growth) as well as double-digit export growth (although coming from a low base).

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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General Motors Company (GM), the American multinational holding corporation that engages in the automotive industry, aims to expand its partnership with China's SAIC Motor Corp by joining hands to enhance business activities in Indonesia. Recently, speculation emerged that both companies were drifting apart. However, both camps claim that the relationship has never been better. In fact, GM China and SAIC are opening four new plants in China which will add 1 million cars (per year) to the current production capacity of 3 million vehicles.

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Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

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In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.

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