Most analysts agree that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will leave its interest rate regime unchanged at the Board of Governors’ Meeting that is scheduled for Tuesday 14 July 2015. Indonesia’s central bank is expected to maintain its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent as the country’s inflation rate has recently accelerated while the rupiah has been under pressure due to external factors.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2015 to 3.3 percent (y/y), from 3.5 percent (y/y) previously, as the harsh winter impacted on the US economy and drags down global growth accordingly. In the first quarter of 2015, the US economy contracted 0.2 percent (y/y). Moreover, turmoil in Greece and China cause great volatility on international financial markets, the Washington-based institution said in an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on Thursday (09/07).

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Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves fell USD $2.8 billion to USD $108.0 billion at the end of June 2015 (from USD $110.8 billion one month earlier). This fall was caused by foreign debt repayment and the use of foreign exchange to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate. Due to external pressures (particularly looming further monetary tightening in the USA this year and the possible Greek exit from the euro), the rupiah is the worst performing Asian currency tracked by Bloomberg so far in 2015, weakening about 7 percent against the US dollar.

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The latest survey of Bank Indonesia shows that consumer confidence in Indonesia has fallen in June 2015 on fears of shrinking job availability as well as declining income and business activity. Last month, the central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.5 points to 111.3. This year so far, Indonesian consumer confidence only rose in May. In other months the index fell. Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on samples of 4,600 households in 18 major cities in Indonesia (100 separates optimism from pessimism).

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On 1 July 2015, Bank Indonesia’s BI Regulation No. 17/3/PBI/2015 regarding the Mandatory Use of the Rupiah in Indonesia came into effect. This BI Regulation, signed on 31 March 2015, restricts the use of foreign currencies in transactions conducted in Indonesia with the aim to deepen the domestic rupiah market, stabilize the rupiah (which has been depreciating against the US dollar), and foster economic expansion. A previous law (Law No. 7/2011) allowed for involved contract parties to agree using another currency (than the rupiah) for payments.

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Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 7.26 percent year-on-year (y/y) in June 2015 on higher food prices triggered by the start of the Ramadan month (the Islamic fasting month). The seasonal Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always cause inflationary pressure in Indonesia as consumers increase spending. Despite Indonesian purchasing power having declined in recent months, reflected by slowing car and motorcycle sales, cheaper consumer goods such as food, clothes, shoes and bags are popular.

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In line with markets' expectation the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark reference interest rate (BI rate) unchanged at 7.50 percent on Thursday (18/06). Bank Indonesia remains committed to its relatively tight monetary stance in a bid to combat accelerated inflation, limit the country's wide current account deficit, and support the ailing rupiah. The central bank also kept its overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) and lending facility rate at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to leave its interest rate regime unchanged at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s meeting. Currently, Bank Indonesia’s key interest rate (BI rate) stands at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. The central bank seems committed to this relatively high interest rate environment as the country’s inflation accelerated to 7.15 percent (y/y) in May, while the rupiah touched a 17-year low on 9 June 2015.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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The latest Consumer Confidence Index, compiled by the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) shows that Indonesian consumers have become more optimistic about their economic prospects in May 2015. The index rose to 112.8 points in May, up 5.4 points from the preceding month (a score higher than 100.0 signal consumer optimism). It was the first time this year that Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is based on a sample of 4,600 household in 18 major Indonesian cities, increased.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) continued its weakening trend this week. The index fell 0.93 percent to 4,674.12 on Thursday (25/07). This downward movement today was in line with most other Asian stock indices. All sectoral indices of the IHSG weakened, except for the miscellaneous industry. Indonesian blue chips, in particular, were under pressure. Unilever Indonesia fell 3.38 percent and Bank Mandiri lost 3.37 percent. Trade was relatively quiet with value of transactions at IDR 4.5 trillion (USD $441.2 million).

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue yesterday's rise as investors, particularly domestic investors, engaged in profit taking. Foreign investors, who were net buyers of Indonesian assets, were not able to guide the IHSG to positive territory. Mixed Asian stock indices, responding to weak Chinese data, did not support Indonesia's index. Moreover, market participants expect that the rupiah will continue its weakening trend and have begun speculating whether the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) will be raised again.

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Yesterday's rising indices on Wall Street, high expectations of companies' financial reports and positive statements regarding economic growth in China resulted in a good day at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Indonesia's main stock index, the IHSG, rose 1.88 percent to 4,767.16 on Tuesday (23/07), even though technical indicators seemed to predict a weakening of the index. Also the continued fall of the Indonesian rupiah did not turn investors away from the market. In fact, foreign investors were net buyers of Indonesian stocks.

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The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is experiencing one of its worst losing streaks in a decade. On Friday (19/07), the currency weakened to IDR 10,070 against the US dollar, which implies a devaluation of 4.14% in 2013 so far. The central bank of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, does all it can to support the currency: the country's lender of last resort supplies dollars to the market triggering the reduction of foreign reserves from USD $105 million at end-May to $98 million at end-June, and raised its benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) by 50 bps to 6.50%.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) went up 0.89 percent to 4,720.44 on Thursday (18/07). The index was supported by developments in the United States. On Wednesday (17/07), Ben Bernanke spoke to the US Congress and said that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its bond-buying program in 2013 and may gradually withdraw the quantitative easing program in 2014. But only if economic recovery of the US provides the good context. This message supported the IHSG although foreign investors continued to record a net sale.

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Starting from 1 September 2013, the minimum down payment for the purchase of a second house or apartment (bigger than 70 m²) in Indonesia will be raised to 40 percent. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) implements this new rule to avoid a possible credit bubble in Indonesia's property sector. The country's property sector has been booming in recent years, giving rise to many new property projects, soaring profits for property companies (as well as impressive stock performance) and significantly rising property prices.

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Retail sales in May 2013 rose 1.5 percent (month to month) or 8.6 percent (year on year) in Indonesia according to a publication of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) released on Tuesday evening (16/07). The report made a positive impact on today's trading day as stocks in Indonesia's consumer goods sector rose 2.5 percent. Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) gained 0.75 percent to end at the level of 4,679.00 points. Foreigner investors are still mostly avoiding the Indonesian stock market, but did record a net purchase today.

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Amid widespread profit taking, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was able to post another day of limited growth on Tuesday (16/07). Asian stock indices, including the IHSG, were supported by rising American stock indices on Monday (15/07). Investors seem to be confident that Q2-2013 results of various Indonesian companies are positive and therefore engaged in stock trading although foreign investors were still mostly selling their Indonesian assets. At the end of today's trading day, the IHSG rose 0.18 percent to 4,644.04.

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After finishing last week with three consecutive days of gains, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) reached up to 4,633.11. However, its movement is still rather volatile. Property, finance and consumption stocks were sold by investors after seeing the benchmark interest rate raised by Bank Indonesia (by 50 bps to 6.50 percent) on Thursday (11/07), while metal stocks formed the main supporter of the index at the end of the week. Trading volume in the regular market hit 5.2 trillion and foreigners recorded net purchases of IDR 288 billion.

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In line with the general trend in the Asian region, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) rose 0.63 percent to 4,633.11 on Friday (12/07). One of the sectoral indices that did not follow this trend was Indonesia's property sector, which fell 0.66 percent on Friday. Since early June (and in line with large capital outflows), Indonesian property shares have experienced a significant fall of about 20 percent. Moreover, Bank Indonesia's decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 6.50 percent will most likely add downward pressure on the sector.

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