After six years of steady decline, the Indonesian rupiah is likely to have appreciated against the US dollar at the end of 2016. So far this year, the currency of Indonesia has appreciated 4.8 percent to IDR 13,126 against the greenback (Bloomberg Dollar Index) supported by capital inflows, particularly into government bonds and stocks as well as the delay in further monetary tightening in the USA. Although the rupiah should depreciate a bit as we go towards the end of the year, it is set to finish the year at a stronger level than it started.

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On 7 August 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's Q2-2016 GDP growth result, July inflation and manufacturing, the tax amnesty program, coal mining, monetary and fiscal policies, the tobacco industry, and much more.

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There is plenty of room for optimism about the direction of Indonesia's economic growth this year. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Friday (05/08) that the economy of Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded by 5.18 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2016, a figure that exceeded all expectations and forms a remarkable jump from the 4.66 percent (y/y) GDP growth figure in Q2-2015 and 4.91 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016. As a result, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is currently near record levels.

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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.18 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2016, beating analysts' forecasts and accelerating strongly from the (downward revised) 4.91 percent (y/y) GDP growth pace that was recorded in the preceding quarter. Data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), released this morning (05/08), also show that on a quarterly non-seasonally adjusted basis, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 4.02 percent in Q2-2016.

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In today's cabinet reshuffle (27/07) economist Sri Mulyani Indrawati was appointed as Indonesia's new finance minister, replacing Bambang Brodjonegoro. One day earlier, when few were aware about this surprise move, Sri Mulyani spoke briefly to reporters - in her position as managing director and chief operating officer of the World Bank - about the Indonesian and global economy. She sees two matters that negatively affect Indonesia's economic growth: slowing economic growth in China and the Brexit issue.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth to reach between 4.9 and 5.0 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2016, only rising slightly from GDP growth realization of 4.92 percent in the first quarter. Growth is forecast to remain subdued as Indonesia's household consumption has not improved markedly yet (reflected by low demand for credit). Meanwhile, the global economic context remains plagued by uncertainties, particularly ongoing concern about the economies of the USA, China and Europe.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2016 to improve slightly to 4.9 - 5.0 percent (y/y) compared to the 4.92 percent (y/y) GDP growth realization in the first quarter of the year. Regarding growth in full-year 2016, Bank Indonesia remains optimistic that a 5.4 percent growth pace can be achieved supported by a looser monetary policy (that should boost demand for credit). Bank Indonesia cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 0.25 percentage point to 6.50 percent in the June policy meeting.

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The World Bank released the June 2016 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) report on Monday (20/06). Recently, the Washington-based institution took a rigorous step by downgrading its 2016 global economic growth forecast from 2.9 percent (y/y) to 2.4 percent (y/y). This is a significant downgrade that was primarily due to the weak performance of commodity exporters. Despite this downgrade the World Bank still sees a resilient Indonesian economy, reflected by a GDP growth forecast of 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 and 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2017.

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In line with expectations, the government of Indonesia revised down its economic growth target in 2016 from 5.3 percent (y/y) to 5.1 percent (y/y) amid subdued private consumption, slower-than-expected private investment, and low commodity prices. Meanwhile, the World Bank also cut its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to 5.1 percent (y/y), down from its earlier prediction of 5.3 percent (y/y). The World Bank also slashed its outlook for global growth from 2.9 percent (y/y) to 2.4 percent (y/y) this year.

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On 22 May 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as revisions made to the economic growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2016 and 2017, the trade balance, batik industry, infrastructure, rupiah & stocks, company updates, and much more.

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Takehiko Nakao, President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow 5.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, lower than the target that has been set by the Indonesian government in the 2015 State Budget (5.8 percent y/y). Nakao is slightly less optimistic as he expects a slowdown in government spending this year. On a positive note, Nakao’s forecast implies a sharp improvement in Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015 from an estimated 5.1 percentage point (y/y) GDP growth in 2014.

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The latest survey of Indonesia’s central bank indicates that consumer confidence fell in December 2014. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.6 points to 116.5 in the last month of 2014 (a score above 100 signals optimism among consumers) due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented in November 2014. This move triggered higher prices of products and services. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on interviews with 4,600 households in 18 Indonesian cities.

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A team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by David Cowen (advisor at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department), visited several Indonesian cities in the first three weeks of December 2014 to conduct research on the economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. This research included the study of recent macroeconomic developments as well as the formulation of prognosis scenarios for the short and middle term. The IMF team held discussions with the government, Bank Indonesia, private entrepreneurs and scholars.

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In order to avoid the middle-income trap and join the ranks of the high income countries by 2030 (reaching a per capita income level of at least USD $12,500), Indonesia needs to raise economic growth beyond the 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) level. If the current gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is maintained (between 5 and 6 percent y/y) then it will take another decade to break from the middle income trap and become a high income country. However, GDP growth in 2014 is projected at a bleak 5.2 percent (y/y).

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Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.

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International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade). Baradita Katoppo, President Director of Indonesia’s Fitch Ratings branch, said that the firm is positive about the country’s financial fundamentals and prudent fiscal policy as the central bank has showed to prefer stability over growth, resulting in slowing credit growth and rising foreign exchange reserves in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Economic growth is expected to fall to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia expects that Indonesia’s current account deficit will decline to below the three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) mark by the end of this year supported by sharply falling global oil prices and Indonesia’s recent subsidized fuel price hike. Hendar, Deputy Governor of the central bank, said that for every USD $1 decline in global oil prices, the country’s current account deficit narrows by about USD $170 million. Indonesia’s current account deficit fell to 3.1 percent of GDP in Q3-2014 (from 4.06 percent of GDP in Q2-2014).

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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